We have such a matchup in store for us on Friday night, as the Air Force Falcons pay a visit to the “Biggest Little City in the World,” taking on the Nevada Wolf Pack in a game that begins at 9 PM ET.

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Both of these teams have 7-3 straight-up records; Nevada has the same ATS mark, while Air Force is 6-4 against the number.

These are formidable Mountain West teams; both of them have beaten Boise State, for example. But they implement their game plan in many different ways. While Air Force is ranked second in the nation in rushing, and they keep it on the ground almost 85% of the time, Nevada’s offense is greatly built around the passing game, and why not? They have a star quarterback in Carson Strong, who is likely to be a first-round selection in the next NFL Draft – if he chooses to make himself eligible, that is.

Strong has 3547 yards and 28 touchdowns, and no one doubts his rocket arm. Nevada passes the ball on 67% of its plays.

In the college football betting odds that have been posted on this game by the folks at BetOnline, it’s too close for the oddsmakers to come up with a favorite:

Nevada Wolf Pack pick

Air Force Falcons

Over 52.5 points -110

Under 52.5 points -110

Last week Nevada didn’t even bother to run the ball. They didn’t even pretend, and they totaled just eight yards in a loss to San Diego State.

But Strong had 350 yards through the air. Meanwhile, Air Force had 338 yards on the ground in its 35-21 win over Colorado State. It’s hard to tell who has the defensive edge here because while Air Force has done an excellent job defending the run, it’s almost useless against Nevada, whose 2.2-yard average per carrying is almost irrelevant.

Of course, Air Force runs the option, which is a difficult thing to prepare for. Take note that Nevada has allowed 4.4 yards per carry, although, in a situation where they know they could probably stack the box to stop the run, that figure may not be so high.

But Air Force has occasionally heaved the ball downfield, and when it does it has an element of surprise on its side. QB Hazziq Daniels has completed 42 passes for 909 yards.

Both of these teams are going to be participating in a bowl game. It’s just not certain which of those games it’s going to be. It would take a bizarre set of circumstances for either team to find their way into the Mountain West Conference title game, because they have lost to the teams sitting in front of them – for instance, Air Force has lost to Utah State, while Nevada has gone down to defeat against both Fresno State and San Diego State.

The conference has guaranteed slots in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl, New Mexico Bowl, Arizona Bowl and Hawaii Bowl. That’s not prestigious stuff (except if you watch Jimmy Kimmel, I guess), but for Air Force, it would represent a return to the post-season after missing out at the end of what was a bizarre 2020 campaign for them, when a large number of players opted out.

With contrasting styles and capable offenses, we’ll take our chances on the “over.” And it won’t be like pulling a slot machine level either.

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