Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns: Conference Semifinals Game 3 Prediction, Player Props, & Betting Tips

By Sam Batz

The NBA Playoffs are heating up as we near the end of several Conference Semifinal matchups. One of the most well-contested series has been between the Denver Nuggets and the Phoenix Suns, who will face-off on Thursday, May 11th for a decisive Game 6 (7:00 PM PST, ESPN). The Nuggets lead the series 3-2 after winning Game 5 at home. Denver has won every home game, and not just in this series, but throughout the entire postseason. The Suns are 4-1 at home and have yet to lose to the Nuggets in Phoenix. They are -3.5 point favorites with a moneyline priced at -170, while Denver enters Game 6 as the underdogs for the third time this postseason. 

The Denver Nuggets (+3.5; ML +140)

The Nuggets are 7-3 in the playoffs, and are favored (+115) to win the West and make the franchises first ever NBA Finals appearance. According to FiveThirtyEight, Denver has a 84% chance to reach the Conference Finals, a 48% chance to reach the Finals, but are being given just a 46% chance to win Game 6 against the Suns. The Nuggets are 1-3 (25.0%) on the road in the playoffs, a stark difference from their 6-0 record at home, and a glaring weakness for an otherwise flawless Denver team. Their leading man, Nikola Jokic, has been phenomenal, averaging 35.0 points, 13.8 rebounds, and 10.0 assists per game against Phoenix. He recorded his 4th triple-double of the postseason in Game 5, and will need to have another big game on Thursday if the Nuggets want to avoid a Game 7.   

The Phoenix Suns (-3.5; ML -170)

The Suns are 6-4 through their first 10 games of the postseason, and unless they can find a way to win on the road against Denver, Phoenix will not win this series. The Suns are 0-3 against the Nuggets on the road, but are 2-0 at home, and unless they can manage to go 3-0, this series will be over. Down 3-2, Game 6 is a must-win for the Suns who, like Denver, are looking to collect their first ever NBA Championship. Devin Booker and Kevin Durant are doing their best to get Phoenix into the next round, but the Suns role players need to have a greater impact in order to force a Game 7. Phoenix is averaging 123.8 points per game at home, in large part due to the brilliance of Devin Booker, but unless his teammates can step it up, the Suns are looking at a 2nd-consecutive Conference Semifinal elimination. 

Nuggets vs. Suns: Game 6 Odds

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Nuggets vs. Suns: Postseason Stats

Nuggets vs. Suns: Postseason Betting Trends

Denver Nuggets

• 6-4 ATS in the postseason
• 1-3 ATS on the ROAD in the postseason
• 6-4 O/U record in the postseason
• 0-2 as UNDERDOGS in the postseason
• 0-2 as UNDERDOGS on the ROAD in the postseason

Phoenix Suns

• 4-6 ATS in the postseason
• 3-2 ATS at HOME in the postseason
• 6-4 O/U record in the postseason
• 6-1 as FAVORITES in the postseason
• 4-1 as FAVORITES at HOME in the postseason

Nuggets vs. Suns: Bold Player Prop

Deandre Ayton (Suns Center): Over 12.5 Points (-115)

Deandre Ayton has struggled against his counterpart, Nikola Jokic, in these Conference Semis. Jokic is a tough test for every big man in the league, but Ayton has looked lethargic and uninterested in slowing Jokic down. Averaging 13.4 points and 9.7 rebounds per game, Ayton is having a disappointing postseason. He recorded just 4-points in Game 3, and is yet to eclipse 14-points against Denver. He is taking a lot of flak for his defensive performance against Jokic,  but Ayton has shot 50% or better from the field in 4 of the 5 games this series; I expect him to get it together, and in a pivotal Game 6, Deandre Ayton will go over 12.5 points. 

Nuggets vs. Suns Game 6 Prediction

Take the Denver Nuggets to cover the spread in Game 6. Phoenix looked downright dejected after the Game 5 loss on Tuesday, and unless head coach Monty Williams makes some changes, the Suns are in trouble. Denver is the real deal, and with their roster at full strength, they are a tenacious opponent. The only reason the Suns are favored to win is because of home-court advantage. Denver averaged 119.0 points through 2 games in Phoenix, and if they can channel the defensive prowess they show at home, Denver will not only keep the game within reach, but the Nuggets could extinguish the Suns entirely.  

Prediction: Denver Nuggets Cover The Spread (+3.5)

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