Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers

By Sam Batz

On Thursday, April 6th, the Philadelphia 76ers will host the Miami Heat for their third and final matchup of the season (7:30 PM EST, TNT). The series is tied 1-1 with both Miami and Philadelphia beating the other on the road. Miami averages 98.5 points against the 76ers, were priced at +180 (moneyline) in opening NBA odds, and are currently +4 point underdogs. The 76ers average 109.0 points against the Heat, were priced at -210 (moneyline) in opening NBA odds, and are currently -4 point favorites. Philly has clinched the playoffs, but Miami has not, meaning a win for the Heat carries a lot more significance. 

Miami Heat Breakdown (+180)

The Miami Heat are the 7th seed in the East with a 42-37 (53.2%) record. Miami is highly likely to make the play-in tournament, but are just 1 game behind the 6th seed New Jersey Nets and the automatic playoff berth. Thursday’s game is a critical juncture for the Heat, but unfortunately for them, they face one of the best teams in the conference. Miami went 6-4 in their last 10 and are coming off back-to-back wins, but the Heat have a 44.9% win-rate against the East, and a 41.0% win-rate on the road. Miami has an 85% chance to make the playoffs, but according to ESPN Analytics, have just a 32.1% chance to beat the Sixers on Thursday.  

Philadelphia 76ers Breakdown (-210)

The Sixers will be in the NBA Playoffs for the 6th consecutive season. They are the 3rd seed in the East with a 52-27 (65.8%) record, 5.0 games behind the conference leading Milwaukee Bucks. Philly went 5-5 in their last 10, but are coming off a massive 103-101 victory over their conference rivals, the Boston Celtics. Joel Embiid led the Sixers with 52 points, 13 rebounds, and 6 assists on 20-25 from the field, and no three-pointers, all but solidifying his status as MVP frontrunner. Embiid will look to lead his team once again on Thursday night in a matchup they are expected to win. 

Heat vs. 76ers Odds

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Heat vs. 76ers: Season Stats

Heat vs. 76ers: Betting Trends

Heat vs. 76ers: Game Changers

Miami Heat

• Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, and Tyler Herro all average over 20+ points per game
• The Miami Heat average the fewest points per game (109.1) but the give up 109.8 points per game (2nd) to their opponents
• The Heat have won just 27.8% of their games as underdogs on the road

Philadelphia 76ers

• Joel Embiid will be this year’s regular season MVP. He leads the league with 33.3 points per game, and averages 27.0 points against Miami
• James Harden and Tyrese Maxey both average 20+ points per game, but Maxey is listed as Day-to-Day and is doubtful to play Thursday
• The Sixers win 74.3% of the time as the favorites in their home arena 

Heat vs. 76ers Prediction

Take Philadelphia to win the game (moneyline). The Sixers are tough to beat at home, and while the Heat do play fantastic team defense, Joel Embiid is too big and powerful for Miami to stop. In Philadelphia’s most recent matchup against Miami (3/1/23), which ended 119-96, Embiid didn’t even play and Miami still lost by 23 points. The Heat struggle to score, ranking near the bottom with an offensive rating of 112.1 (25th), but they make up for it with the 2nd-best defense in the league. Unfortunately the Sixers are the 3rd-best offense, and should handle their business against Miami on Thursday.

Prediction: Philadelphia 76ers Moneyline (-210) and the Under (221.5)

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