Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns: Conference Semifinals Game 3 Prediction, Player Props, & Betting Tips

By Sam Batz

The NBA Playoffs continue on Friday, May 5th when the Denver Nuggets travel to the Valley of Sun for a pivotal Game 3 against the Phoenix Suns (7:00 PM PST, ESPN). The Nuggets lead 2-0, and according to the history of the NBA Playoffs, if Denver wins Game 3, the series is essentially over. The Suns enter Game 3 as the favorites for the first time this series, with a moneyline priced at -175. The Nuggets are +4 point underdogs, and their moneyline is priced at +145. Denver went 0-2 in Phoenix during the regular season, and have not beaten the Suns at home in the Playoffs since 1983. 

The Denver Nuggets (+4; ML +145)

The Nuggets are the top seed in the West and are looking to make their first ever Finals appearance in franchise history. Injuries in the postseason have plagued the Nuggets in the past, but this year, Denver is healthy and playing very well. They got past the First Round with ease, beating the Timberwolves in 5, and remained undefeated at home after winning Games 1 and 2 against the Suns. Nikola Jokic leads the team with 27.7 points, 13.9 rebounds, and 7.9 assists per game in the playoffs, and roasted the Suns in Game 2, recording 39 points, 16 rebounds, and 5 assists. The Nuggets have an 87% chance to see the Conference Finals, and are priced at +350 (2nd-best odds) to win the NBA Finals.   

The Phoenix Suns (-4; ML -175)

After an impressive First Round against the LA Clippers, the Suns have run into a wall. They are down 0-2 to the top-seeded Denver Nuggets, putting them in a must-win situation for Game 3 at home. Fortunately for Phoenix, Denver doesn’t travel well, and the Suns, who won 68.3% of their home games this season, have a golden opportunity to win their first matchup of the series. Devin Booker is playing out of his mind, averaging 35.4 points per game in the postseason, and shooting an incredible 57.2% from the field. Booker had 35 points, 6 assists, and 5 rebounds in Phoenix’s Game 2 loss, and while the Suns certainly need him to have another monster performance in Game 3, they will also need their role players to step-up and make meaningful contributions in order to avoid the dreaded 3-0 deficit.     

Nuggets vs. Suns: Game 3 Odds

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Nuggets vs. Suns: Postseason Stats

Nuggets vs. Suns: Postseason Betting Trends

Denver Nuggets

• 5-2 ATS in the Playoffs
• 1-1 ATS on the ROAD in the Playoffs
• 4-3 O/U record in the Playoffs
• 0-0 as UNDERDOGS in the Playoffs

Phoenix Suns

• 2-5 ATS in the Playoffs
• 1-2 ATS at HOME in the Playoffs
• 4-3 O/U record in the Playoffs
• 4-1 as FAVORITES in the Playoffs

Nuggets vs. Suns: Player Props

Kevin Durant (Suns Power Forward): Over 29.5 Points (-105)

The Suns need KD to have a big game on Friday, and I expect him to meet the occasion. He is averaging 27.9 points per game, but against Denver this season, he averaged 29.5 points in two games. Durant is a seasoned postseason player, and knows what it takes to win big games. Game 3 is a massive game for Phoenix, and I predict Kevin Durant will go over 29.5 points. 

Michael Porter Jr. (Nuggets Small Forward): Under 14.5 Points (-125)

MPJ plays an important role for Denver, but he is not a scorer. He will go off every once in a while, but Porter Jr. is there to get rebounds and play great defense. He is averaging 14.0 points per game in the playoffs, but has gone for 8 pts, 11pts, and 5 pts in his last 3 games respectively. He averaged 9.0 points in two games against the Suns this year, and I predict MPJ will go under 14.5 points in Game 3.  

Nuggets vs. Suns Game 3 Prediction

Take the Phoenix Suns to win Game 3 at home. The Suns certainly aren’t ready to call it quits, and with a win on Friday, they can put themselves right back into this series. The Nuggets are deserving of the top-seed in the West, but Denver is not nearly as threatening on the road as they are at home. Monty Williams is a great coach and he’ll have the Suns focused and ready to dominate in Game 3. Phoenix’s 37-year old veteran Point Guard, Chirs Paul, could miss the game because of a groin injury, but the Suns should be fine with Booker and Durant leading the offense.

Prediction: Phoenix Suns Moneyline (-175) 

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