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Miami Heat at Boston Celtics: Conference Final Game 5 Prediction, Player Props, and Betting Tips
Sam Batz
The NBA’s Eastern Conference Final between the Miami Heat and the Boston Celtics continues on Thursday, May 25th with Game 5 (8:30 PM EST, TNT). The Celtics avoided elimination after winning 116-99 in Game 4 on Tuesday, but the odds remain heavily stacked against them. Miami leads 3-1 and all they need is just one more victory. No NBA team has ever come back from an 0-3 deficit, and although the Celtics are expected to win Game 5, the Heat remain the favorites to win the series. Thursday’s matchup is shaping up to be one of the most important games of the season for both sides, as Boston is looking to retain their Eastern Conference title, and Miami is hoping to become the first 8-seed in over 2 decades to reach the Finals.
The Miami Heat (+8; ML +240)
The Miami Heat had their worst outing of the series Tuesday night in Game 4. They shot a respectable 34/78 (43.6%) from the field, but went 8/32 (25.0%) from the 3-point line, a sharp decline from the previous games in this series. Jimmy Butler led Miami with 29 points, 9 rebounds, and 5 assists, but received little to no help from his teammates. Gabe Vincent, who went off for 29 points in Game 3, was the 2nd-highest scorer for Miami with just 17 points. It was certainly a down game for the Heat, but thankfully being up 3-0 granted them the leeway to falter, and despite the loss, Miami is still highly-likely to win the East..
The Boston Celtics (-8; ML -300)
The Celtics may have finally won a game, but the Eastern Conference Finals have been a complete disaster for the reigning Conference Champions. Boston is now 9-8 (52.9%) in the playoffs, and although they avoided the sweep, they are not expected to avoid elimination. The Celtics need to win 3-straight games and achieve a feat no other team has ever been able to accomplish. Coming back from a 0-3 deficit isn’t just unlikely, it’s a near impossibility. The Celtics looked good in Game 3, and played with an intensity we haven’t seen this series, but it is likely too little, too late, as the Miami Heat aren’t looking to throw away their 3-game advantage so carelessly.
Heat vs. Celtics: Game 5 Odds
Team | Current Spread | Current Total | Opening Moneyline |
Miami Heat | +8 (-110) | Ov 216 (-110) | +240 |
Boston Celtics | -8 (-110) | Un 216 (-110) | -300 |
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Heat vs. Celtics: Postseason Stats
Miami Heat (8) 113.8 109.1 47.7% 38.0% 40.9 12.5 116.8 111.7 6-1 (85.7%) 5-3 (62.5%) | Stat Type Points/Game Opponent Points/Game Field Goal % Three-Point % Rebounds/Game Turnovers/Game Offensive Rating Defensive Rating Home Record (Win-Rate) Away Record (Win-Rate) | Boston Celtics (2) 114.2 109.9 48.3% 37.9% 43.4 12.4 117.0 113.0 4-5 (44.4%) 5-3 (62.5%) |
Heat vs. Celtics: Postseason Betting Trends
Miami Heat
- 11-4 ATS in the postseason
- 6-2 ATS on the ROAD in the postseason
- 10-4-1 O/U record in the postseason
- 8-3 as UNDERDOGS in the postseason
- 5-3 as UNDERDOGS on the ROAD in the postseason
Boston Celtics
- 9-8 ATS in the postseason
- 4-5 ATS at HOME in the postseason
- 11-6 O/U record in the postseason
- 8-7 as FAVORITES in the postseason
- 4-5 as FAVORITES at HOME in the postseason
Heat vs. Celtics: Bold Player Prop
Derrick White (Celtics Point Guard): Over 11.5 Points (-130)
Derrick White is averaging 12.6 points per game in the playoffs, and in Game 3, he eclipsed the 15-point mark for the first time since Game 5 of the First Round. White has hit 3 3-pointers in four consecutive games, but recorded over 11.5 points in just 1 out of 4 games against Miami. However, White is clearly a key that can unlock doors for Boston, and after getting the start in Game 4, will once again play a big role in Game 5. I predict Derrick White will go over 11.5 points on Thursday.
Heat vs. Celtics Game 5 Prediction
Take the Miami Heat to cover the point spread in Game 5. The Heat are rarely blown out and often keep the game within reach. Miami plays lockdown defense, so even when the shots aren’t falling, they are able to fall back and rely on their suffocating defense to keep them in the game. Boston hit 10 more Threes than Miami in Game 4 and the Heat still only lost by 17 points. We know the Celtics will come out hot, but I also expect Miami’s shooting to be back on track, and in a highly anticipated Game 5, look for the Heat to keep things interesting.
Prediction: Miami Heat Cover The Spread (+8)
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