NBA Play-In: Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat

By Sam Batz

Only one spot remains in the Eastern Conference playoff bracket, and on Friday, April 14th, the Chicago Bulls will make their way to South Beach to face the Miami Heat to determine who is in, and who goes home (7:00 PM EST, ESPN). It’s the final game of the play-in for the East, and either Miami or Chicago will move on as the No. 8 seed to face the Milwaukee Bucks in the First Round. The Bulls made history as the first No. 10 seed to win a play-in game after beating the Toronto Raptors 109-105 on Wednesday. Now, Chicago must do it again to officially clinch a playoff spot. The Heat lost to the No. 7 seed Atlanta Hawks, but Miami will have another shot at the playoffs when Chicago comes to town on Friday night. 

Chicago Bulls Breakdown (+185)

The Bulls finished the regular season with a 40-42 (48.8%) record. They were the No. 10 seed coming into the play-in tournament, and thanks to Zach LaVine’s 39 points performance against the Raptors on Wednesday, the Bulls are still alive. Chicago is the underdog priced at +185, but against Miami this year, the Bulls are 3-0 and average 114.0 points per contest. Along with Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan and Nikola Vucevic also play important roles for Chicago, and will need to be at their best against Miami’s suffocating defense. Chicago shot 48.8% from the field against Toronto, but struggled from the three-point line, shooting 26.9%, which won’t cut it against the Heat. 

Miami Heat Breakdown (-225)

Miami went 44-38 (53.7%) in the regular season, but lost to Atlanta 105-116 in a devastating play-in opener. The Heat have relied on their defense all season, but against the Hawks, Miami allowed 7 different players to record double-digit scoring figures. They will look to remedy that blunder against the Chicago Bulls who are no strangers to scoring troubles. Miami is led by Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, and Tyler Herro, who all average 20+ points per game and have each played over 60 games for the Heat this season. Fortunately for Miami, they are still the higher seed compared to Chicago, and thus get to play at home, where the Heat win 65.9% of the time. 

Bulls vs. Heat Odds

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Bulls vs. Heat: Season Stats

Bulls vs. Heat: Betting Trends

Bulls vs. Heat Prediction 

Take the Miami Heat to beat the Chicago Bulls on Friday. It will be a highly competitive matchup, but I don’t see the Heat dropping two straight at home. Miami has a more-than-decent record in their home arena, and after faltering against Atlanta, the Heat have had two days to rest and prepare for Chicago. The Bulls played well against Toronto, but when your opponent misses 18 free throws, it’s hard to lose. The Raptors really shot themselves in the foot by going 50% from the stripe, and the Bulls were the beneficiaries. 

The Miami Heat shoot 83.1% (2nd-best in NBA) from the free throw line, so Chicago isn’t likely to win by way of missed free throws again. Chicago will instead need to create open shots against the Heat’s high-pressure defense, which is much easier said than done. Miami allowed just 109.8 opponent points per game in the regular season, and I wouldn’t be surprised if their defensive intensity improves even further in the postseason. If the Heat can get their offense going, the Bulls don’t stand a chance. Miami is very good at keeping a lead, and will come out fast and aggressive in this highly anticipated play-in final. 

Prediction: Miami Heat Moneyline (-225) and the Under (208.5)

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