Milwaukee Looked Great Without Giannis | Bucks vs Heat | OSB
Milwaukee Bucks at Miami Heat: Game 3
By Sam Batz
The NBA Playoffs continue on Saturday, April 22nd when the Miami Heat host the Milwaukee Bucks for Game 3 (7:30 PM EST, ESPN). The series is tied 1-1 after Game 1 ended in a shocking 130-117 Miami upset victory. But the Bucks turned it around and won 138-122 in Game 2. It’s been an unpredictable series with many twists and turns. Both teams now head to Miami for Game 3, where Milwaukee are -4.5 point favorites with a moneyline priced at -200, while the Heat are +4.5 point underdogs with a moneyline priced at +165.
The Milwaukee Bucks (-200)
The Bucks entered the playoffs as the best team in the NBA. They went 58-24 (70.7%), which was not only the best record in the East, but was the best record in the entire NBA. But Milwaukee does not have the best odds to make it to the Finals out of the East. With a 20% chance to see the Finals, they have the 3rd best odds of the 8 Eastern Conference teams that remain. Their odds might be better if Bucks super-star Giannis Antetokounmpo was healthy. The 6x NBA All-Star and 2x MVP missed Game 2 due to a back injury, and remains doubtful for Game 3. Despite Giannis’ absence, the Bucks dominated in Game 2, proving they are a well-rounded title contender that everyone should fear.
The Miami Heat (+165)
The Miami Heat are in the playoffs for the 4th consecutive year, and had to fight their way through the play-in tournament to get here. Miami went 44-38 (53.7%) and have technically played more games than any other team in the East. The odds were always against them, as the No. 8 seed has only ever beaten the No. 1 seed four times in NBA history. But after thrashing the Bucks in Game 1, the Heat showed everyone they are capable of greatness, and have a surprisingly high 37% chance to beat Milwaukee in the First Round. Miami is led by Jimmy Butler, averaging 30.0 points per game this postseason, who will need to have a huge game on Saturday if Miami is going to win.
Bucks vs. Heat: Game 3 Odds
Team | Current Spread | Current Total | Opening Moneyline |
Milwaukee Bucks | -4.5 (-110) | Ov 220 (-110) | -200 |
Miami Heat | +4.5 (-110) | Un 220 (-110) | +165 |
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Bucks vs. Heat: Regular Season Stats
Milwaukee Bucks (58-24) 116.9 (8th) 113.3 (14th) 47.3 (19th) 36.8 (10th) 114.3 (15th) 110.9 (4th) 32-9 (78.1%) 26-15 (63.4%) | Stat Type Points/Game Opponent Points/Game Field Goal % Three-Point % Offensive Rating Defensive Rating Home Record (Win-Rate) Away Record (Win-Rate) | Miami Heat (44-38) 109.5 (30th) 109.8 (2nd) 46.0 (26th) 34.4 (27th) 112.3 (25th) 112.8 (9th) 27-14 (65.9%) 17-24 (41.5%) |
Bucks vs. Heat: Betting Trends (Regular + Postseason)
Milwaukee Bucks 43-35-6 19-18-4 (Away) 25-25-4 (vs. East) 44-40 8-2 54-12 (as Favorites) 22-4 (Favorites Away) | Betting Trend ATS (Season) ATS (Home/Away) ATS (Conference) O/U (Season) O/U (Last 10) ML (Favorite/Underdog) ML (Home/Away) | Miami Heat 32-51-3 15-26-2 (Home) 20-34-2 (vs. East) 42-43-1 7-3 8-16 (as Underdogs) 2-3 (Underdogs Away |
Bucks vs. Heat: Best Player Props
Bam Adebayo (Heat Center): Over 20.5 Points
If Jimmy Butler is the leading man, then Bam Adebayo is his best supporting actor. Averaging 20.0 points per game this postseason, Bam is a vital part of Miami’s success. He is shooting 55.9% from the field in the playoffs and is Miami’s best option down low. The Heat average 52.0 points in the paint against Milwaukee, and with Giannis likely out, Bam will have free reign of the key. Butler is bound to be double-teamed early and often, leaving room for Bam to work, and I expect him to go over 20.5 points in Game 3.
Khris Middleton (Bucks Small Forward): Over 19.5 Points
Don’t rest on Khris Middleton. Remember, he is a 3x NBA All-Star and isn’t afraid to take over a game. Bucks head coach Mike Budenholzer said with Antetokounmpo out, Middleton will be Milwaukee’s top option. He averaged 15.1 points per game in the regular season, but only played 33 games. In the playoffs, Middleton is leading the Bucks with 24.5 points per game, and I expect him to go over 19.5 points in Game 3.
Bucks vs. Heat Game 3 Prediction
Take the Milwaukee Bucks to win Game 3. Even without Giannis, the Bucks are scary good. They tied the NBA playoffs 3-point record (25 3PM) in Game 2, and shot 53.5% from the field. Milwaukee has an excellent offensive facilitator in Jrue Holiday, and role players like Pat Connaughton and Joe Ingles are adding meaningful contributions. Miami’s talented young point guard Tyler Herro is out for the rest of the postseason with a broken hand, and their veteran Point Guard Kyle Lowry is questionable after reaggravating his knee injury. It’s not looking good for Miami, and I expect Milwuakee to take advantage of their misfortune and win Game 3.
Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks Cover The Spread (-4.5)
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