Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks: Game 1

By Sam Batz

After making their way through the play-in tournament, the Miami Heat secured the final spot in the East, and a date with the top seeded Milwaukee Bucks on Sunday, April 16th (5:30 PM EST, TNT). Only four times in NBA history has an 8 seed beaten the No. 1 seed. We are not likely to see an upset of that magnitude this year however, as the Milwaukee Bucks are heavily favored to win this series. For Game 1 specifically, the Bucks are -9 point favorites with their moneyline priced at -400. The Heat beat the Bulls in the play-in to earn their spot here, but are traveling to Milwaukee as +9 point underdogs with a moneyline set at +310.

The Miami Heat (+310)

Miami went 44-38 (53.7%) in the regular season, and could have been the No. 7 seed, but lost 105-116 to the Atlanta Hawks in their opening play-in round game. Miami salvaged their season by beating the Chicago Bulls on Friday, securing their 4th straight postseason appearance. Unfortunately, they now have to play the best team in the league. Miami was 2-2 against Milwaukee in the regular season, and averaged 108.25 points per contest. The Heat play hard nose defense, limiting their opponents to 109.8 points per game, but they often struggle to score, averaging the fewest points per game (109.5) in the league. 

The Milwaukee Bucks (-400)

The Miluwakee Bucks are this year’s top-ranked team. They finished the season with the league’s best record, 54-28 (70.7%), outpacing the Celtics by 1 game. The Bucks are in the playoffs for the 7th consecutive season, and have gotten past the First Round in their last 4 appearances. It would be an unthinkably massive upset if the Bucks don’t reach the next round, as they have some of the best odds to win the East, make it to the Finals, and take home the trophy. Milwaukee went 2-2 against Miami in the regular season, but in the two games they won, the Bucks recorded 120+ points, and the Heat could not keep up. 

Heat vs. Bucks Odds

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Heat vs. Bucks: Season Stats

Heat vs. Bucks: Betting Trends

Heat vs. Bucks: Game Changers

Miami Heat

• Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, and Tyler Herro all average over 20+ points per game
• Kyle Lowry is now listed as Day-to-Day and could make an appearance in Game 1 against the Bucks, but will likely see very limited minutes even if he can go
• The Heat are 149-118 (55.8%) in the playoffs all-time

Milwaukee Bucks

• Giannis Antetokounmpo is a leading MVP candidate, averaging 31.1 points (5th), 11.8 rebounds (3rd), and 5.7 assist (28th) per game. In his two matchups with Miami, he averaged 19.5 points per game
• Jrue Holiday has been a welcome addition, leading the Bucks with 7.4 assist per game, along with 19.3 points per game. Holiday is considered one of the best defensive guards in the NBA
• The Bucks are 149-152 (49.5%) in the playoffs all-time (same number of wins as Miami)

Heat vs. Bucks Prediction

Take the Milwaukee Bucks to win Game 1 on Sunday. They are favored by nearly 10 points and aren’t dealing with any serious injuries. The Bucks at full strength are a scary opponent to face in the First Round, and Miami will struggle to win a single game. The Heat play impressive defense, but so does Miluwakee. Miami has issues with their offense, but the Bucks do not. It’s a tough matchup for Miami, who also struggled on the road, and now face the Bucks who win over 70% of the time in their home arena. 

Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks Moneyline (-400) and the Over (219) 

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