Boston Celtics at Miami Heat

By Sam Batz

On Tuesday, Jan. 24th, the red-hot Boston Celtics will take their talents to South Beach for a matchup with their Eastern Conference rivals the Miami Heat. The game will be held in Miami’s FTX Arena, and unlike the infamous namesake of the stadium, these teams are looking to stay out of the red and build on their current win streaks. 

Miami has a 26-22 record and is currently the 6th seed in the East. They are 9.5 games behind the conference leaders, which just so happens to be their Tuesday night opponents. Miami is coming off a big win over New Orleans, and actually beat the Pelicans twice in just four days. The Heat are led by Jimmy Butler (21.6), Bam Adebayo (21.4), and Tyler Herro (20.8), all of whom are averaging 20+ points per game. However, points have been hard to come by for Miami this season. They average the fewest points per game (108.6) in the league, and are averaging even less, at 107.6 points, in their last 5 games. Defense has been Mimai’s saving grace, and will rely heavily on their rim protectors in Tuesday’s matchup with a Boston team that has been dominant on the offensive side of the ball. 

The Boston Celtics are at the top of the Eastern Conference standings and have the best record in the NBA at 35-12. Boston is 9-1 in their last 10 games and have won 9 straight, which is currently the longest winning streak in the league. The Celtics have been dominant on both sides of the ball, earning a top-five spot for both offensive and defensive rankings. They are the favorites to win the Eastern Conference Title, as well as the NBA Finals, at +175 and +375 respectively.  Boston is led by 24-year old small forward Jayson Tatum, who is averaging 31.2 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 4.3 assists per game. Tatum has plenty of support as well, from Jaylen Brown’s 26.9 points per contest, to Marcus Smart’s 7.2 assists per game. Boston may be the most well-rounded team in the league and Miami will have their handsful on Tuesday against this squad. 

 

Celtics vs. Heat By The Numbers

Boston Celtics (35-12) Points/Game: 118.5 (2nd)* Points Allowed/Game: 112.2 (10th) Field Goal Percentage: 47.5% (12th)* Three-Point Percentage: 37.1% (8th)* Offensive Rating: 117.3 (3rd)* Defensive Rating: 110.8 (5th)*

Miami Heat (26-22) Points/Game: 108.6 (30th) Points Allowed/Game: 108.4 (2nd)* Field Goal Percentage: 45.5% (26th) Three-Point Percentage: 33.5% (27th) Offensive Rating: 111.0 (26th) Defensive Rating: 111.0 (6th)

Celtics vs. Heat Odds

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Bettings Trends

Boston Celtics 25-21-1 record ATS this season 12-11-1 record ATS on the road 16-12 record ATS against the East 9-5 record ATS on the road against the East 22-24-1 O/U record this season 4-6 O/U record in the last 10 games 33-12 record as the Favorites 15-7 record as the Favorites on the road 10-3 record as the Favorites on the road against the East

Miami Heat 18-27-3 record ATS this season 7-15-2 record ATS at home 8-13-2 record ATS against the East 4-8-2 record ATS at home against the East 21-26-1 O/U record this season 3-7 O/U record in the last 10 games 4-10 record as the Underdogs 1-2 record as the Underdogs at home 0-2 record as the Underdogs at home against the East

 

Celtics vs. Heat All-Time Series

The Miami Heat and the Boston Celtics have played a total of 132 regular season games against one another. The series kicked off in 1988, and since then, Boston has won 80 games while Miami has won 52. Tuesday’s matchup will be the fourth and final meeting between these two of the 22’-23’ regular season. The series is 2-1 in Boston’s favor, but Miami won the most recent matchup, which ended 120-116 in an overtime thriller. The Celtics are averaging 120.3 points against the Heat this season and will be looking to win the season series 3-1 in their final contest with Miami. The Heat on the other hand, are averaging 115.0 points against Boston and will be looking to end the Celtics winning streak and tie the series up, 2-2.

 

Prediction

I like the Celtics in this game. ESPN Analytics is giving Boston a 49.2% chance to win the game, but I can’t think of a reason as to why the Celtics would lose this one. They are averaging 117.6 points in their last five games, while Miami is averaging just 107.6 points over the last five games. The contest against Miami will be the second of a back-to-back from the Celtics, who play the Orlando Magic the night before, but with the depth of talent Boston possess, they should be fine from a fitness standpoint against the Heat on Tuesday. 

The Miami Heat are 15-9 (62.5% win-rate) at home. They have a points differential of +0.2, and rely heavily on their defense to win them games. The Boston Celtics are 17-7 (70.8% win-rate) on the road, and have a points differential of +6.2, which is the best in the NBA. Boston is the best team in the league for a reason, and will come ready to play against Miami, one of their fiercest rivals. 

Prediction: Boston Celtics Moneyline and the Under OR Miami Heat Lose but Cover and the Under. 

 

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