Denver Nuggets at Miami Heat: NBA Finals Game 3 Prediction, Player Props, and Betting Tips

Sam Batz

The 2023 NBA Finals between the Denver Nuggets and the Miami Heat continues on Wednesday, June 7th with Game 3 in South Beach (8:30 PM EST, ABC/ESPN2). The series is tied 1-1, with Denver taking Game 1 and Miami taking Game 2. Denver dropped their first home game of the postseason on Sunday, losing 108-111 in a tightly contested, back-and-forth thriller. It was a huge win for Miami, who are trying to become the first 8-seed in NBA history to win a championship title, as well as collect the franchise’s 4th ring. Denver is hoping to win their first ever NBA title, but after losing Game 2, the Nuggets will need to steal a game on the road in order to make it happen. 

The Denver Nuggets (-2.5; ML -140)

The Denver Nuggets lost their first home game of the postseason on Sunday. Denver entered Game 2 as -8.5 point favorites, with a 9-0 record in their home arena, but were upset by Miami, who outscored the Nuggets 36 to 25 in the 4th quarter. Denver’s prized fighter, Nikola Jokić, led the team with 41 points, 11 rebounds, and 4 assists, but was the only player to eclipse 20 points. The Nuggets have been known for their well-rounded team play this season, but Game 2 was a melt down, especially in the games final quarter. The Nuggets remain the favorites to win both Game 3 and the series as a whole, but must remember not to underestimate the Miami Heat. 

The Miami Heat (+2.5; ML +115)

The Miami Heat added another 2023 postseason accomplishment to the shelf on Sunday by becoming the only team to defeat Denver at home in these playoffs. Miami trailed 51-57 at halftime, and in the hostile environment of Denver’s Ball Arena, recapturing a lead has been a herculean task for most teams. But this Heat side is clearly built differently, and their impeccable resilience in the face of adversity shined through once again. Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, and Gabe Vincent combined for 65 points in Miami’s Game 2 victory, and the Heat’s 3-point shooting improved dramatically, going from 33.3% in Game 1 to 48.6% in Game 2. Clearly the 3-point shot is a make or break factor for Miami, and while relying on 3-point shooting can be a recipe for disaster, it may be the only way the Heat can beat Denver.  

Nuggets vs. Heat: Game 3 Odds

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Nuggets vs. Heat: Postseason Stats

Nuggets vs. Heat: Postseason Betting Trends

Denver Nuggets

• 10-7 ATS in the postseason
• 4-3 ATS on the ROAD 
• 9-8 O/U record in the postseason
• 4-3 O/U record on the ROAD 
• 10-2 as FAVORITES in the postseason
• 1-1 as FAVORITES on the ROAD 

Miami Heat

• 14-6 ATS in the postseason
• 6-2 ATS at HOME 
• 11-8-1 O/U record in the postseason
• 3-4-1 O/U record at HOME
• 10-6 as UNDERDOGS in the postseason
• 3-1 as UNDERDOGS at HOME

Nuggets vs. Heat: Best Player Prop

Jamal Murray (Nuggets Point Guard): Over 24.5 Points (-120) 

Jamal Murray recorded just 18 points in Game 2 of the NBA Finals. It was an off night for the 26-year guard, but Murray rarely puts in two bad performances in-a-row, and I expect him to bounce back in Game 3. Murray is averaging 27.0 points per game in the postseason, and 26.4 points per game on the road. He is one of those players capable of unlocking another level when the going gets tough, and in a pivotal Game 3 on the road, look for Jamal Murray to go over 24.5 points.       

Nuggets vs. Heat: NBA Finals Game 3 Prediction

Take the Denver Nuggets to win Game 3 in Miami and take a 2-1 series lead. The Nuggets didn’t play well on Sunday, and yet they still only lost by 3-points. They nearly sent the game into overtime, but Jamal Murray’s buzzer beater rimmed out, and Miami survived. It was a reminder that the Heat are legitimate title contenders, but Denver won’t win if Jokić is the only consistent player on offense. Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr., and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope combined for a lowly 23 points, which isn’t nearly good enough coming from a championship caliber team, but the Nuggets won’t break down twice-in-a-row, and I expect Denver to reclaim the series lead on Wednesday.   

Prediction: Denver Nuggets Moneyline (-140)

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