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Los Angeles Lakers at Golden State Warriors: Conference Semifinal Game 5 Prediction, Player Props, & Betting Tips
By Sam Batz
On Wednesday, May 10th the Golden State Warriors will battle the Los Angeles Lakers in Game 5 of the Western Conference Semifinals (7:00 PM PST, TNT). Golden State is down 1-3 in the series and will fight to keep their season alive in a must-win matchup for the reigning champions. If the Warriors lose, then it’s all over, and the Lakers advance with yet another 4-1 series victory. Despite being down, the Warriors enter Game 5 as -7.5 point favorites with a moneyline priced at -290, while the Lakers are not expected to beat Golden State at home, resulting in a +7.5 point spread and a +230 moneyline. The series has been difficult to predict, but Game 5 should be a highly entertaining matchup between two decorated teams.
The Los Angeles Lakers (+7.5; ML +230)
The No. 7 seed Lakers are 7-3 in the postseason, and from a seeding perspective, LA is defying all odds. They took down the No. 2 seed Memphis Grizzlies 4-2 in the First Round, and are now up 2 games on the reigning champions. The Lakers have about an 84% chance to advance to the Conference Finals, but were not expected to beat the Warriors when the series began. Lebron James and Anthony Davis have been brilliant against the Warriors, but the Lakers revitalized bench has been invaluable for LA. Their defense has been spectacular, and head coach Darvin Ham is making all the necessary adjustments, leading to the Lakers 3-1 lead and a likely Conference Final berth.
The Golden State Warriors (-7.5; ML -290)
The Warriors are 5-6 in the postseason after losing back-to-back games against the Lakers. Golden State gave up a sizable lead in Game 4, and thanks to Lonnie Walker’s 15-point 4th quarter, the Warriors are down 2-games and are just 1 loss away from elimination. The silver lining is that the Warriors get to play their elimination game at home, where they won over 80% of their games this season. Golden State’s home-court advantage hasn’t been as advantageous as we thought it would be, but in must-win games, it’s difficult to go against the champs. Steph Curry is averaging 30.6 points per game, and recorded a triple-double (31 points, 14 assists, 10 rebounds) in Game 4, but even that wasn’t enough to beat the vastly improved Lakers.
Lakers vs. Warriors: Game 5 Odds
Team | Current Spread | Current Total | Opening Moneyline |
Los Angeles Lakers | +7.5 (-110) | Ov 226 (-110) | +230 |
Golden State Warriors | -7.5 (-110) | Un 226 (-110) | -290 |
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Lakers vs. Warriors: Playoff Stats
Los Angeles Lakers (7) 112.7 106.5 46.4% 31.4% 110.7 105.3 5-0 (100.0%) 2-3 (40.0%) | Stat Type Points/Game Opponent Points/Game Field Goal % Three-Point % Offensive Rating Defensive Rating Home Record (Win-Rate) Away Record (Win-Rate) | Golden State Warriors (7) 113.5 113.1 44.9% 34.5% 110.7 110.2 3-2 (60.0%) 2-4 (33.3%) |
Lakers vs. Warriors: Playoff Betting Trends
Los Angeles Lakers
- 7-3 ATS in the postseason
- 2-3 ATS on the ROAD in the postseason
- 4-6 O/U record in the postseason
- 2-2 as UNDERDOGS in the postseason
- 2-2 as UNDERDOGS on the ROAD in the postseason
Golden State Warriors
- 4-7 ATS in the postseason
- 2-3 ATS at HOME in the postseason
- 5-6 O/U record in the postseason
- 4-3 as FAVORITES in the postseason
- 3-2 as FAVORITES at HOME in the postseason
Lakers vs. Warriors: Bold Player Prop Pick
D’Angelo Russell (Lakers Point Guard): Over 14.5 Points (-130)
D’Lo has not had the impact we thought he would when he returned to LA. Russell was drafted by the Lakers back in 2015 as the 2nd overall pick and was let go 2-years later. But after bouncing around the league, the prodigal son has returned. Russell is averaging 15.4 points per game, but has been wildly inconsistent, scoring anywhere from 4 to 31 points in the playoffs. However there are patterns to his play, which suggests that after scoring just 4-points in Game 4, he is likely to explode in Game 5. I predict D’Angelo Russell will go over 14.5 points on Wednesday night.
Lakers vs Warriors: Game 5 Prediction
Take the Warriors to win Game 5 and keep their season afloat. Golden State is arguably the clutchest team in the league, and I don’t expect the reigning champions to go down easily, especially at home. In the end, the Lakers will win the series, but they won’t do it in Game 5 at the Chase Center. If the Warriors are hitting their 3’s, this one could be over quickly. Steve Kerr is famous for his ingenious adjustments, and after a horrendous Game 4 loss, the Warriors are bound to enter Game 5 ready to execute Kerr’s gameplan to perfection.
Prediction: Golden State Warriors Moneyline (-290)
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