Celtics vs. Mavericks: Odds, Predictions, and Betting Tips

By Sam Batz

The Boston Celtics (nba.com/celtics) will roll into Dallas on Thursday, Jan. 5th to try to take down Luka Dončić and the Dallas Mavericks (mavs.com). Boston is coming off a horrendous loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder, getting blown-out 117-150. The Celtics allowed five OKC players to score over 20-points during the Thunders’ rout against the league’s best. The Dallas Mavericks on the other hand are on a hot-streak. Led by MVP front-runner, Luka Dončić, Dallas has won seven-straight games and will look to extend that streak against Boston on Thursday. 

 

Boston’s Chances

ESPN analytics is giving Boston a 58.3% chance to beat Dallas. The Celtics have the best record in the league at 26-12 and are first in the East. Boston is 11-4 against the Western Conference, but on Thursday, goes up against a Dallas team who currently holds the longest winning streak in the West. Boston is led by Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, two all-stars who are averaging over 31.0-points per game over their last five appearances. The Celtics will rely heavily on these two to carry the load on offense against a Dallas defense that ranks in the top-five with just 110.3 points allowed per game.

 

Dallas’ Chances 

After winning their last seven games, Dallas is the 4 seed in the West with a 22-16 record. They currently hold the second-best winning streak in the league, but ESPN has them as the underdog, giving Dallas a 41.7% chance against the Celtics. Dallas has been bolstered by 23-year old sensation, Luka Dončić, who leads his team in points, rebounds, assists, and steals. Luka has only missed three games this season, but the Mavs have lost every game without him. He is the beating heart of a Dallas team that is 8-2 in their last ten games and averaging 116.7 points over that same stretch. 

 

Celtics vs. Mavericks Odds

Betting odds courtesy of Pointsbet:

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Betting Trends

• The Mavericks are 2-3 ATS in their last five games
• The Celtics are 2-3 ATS in their last five games
• The Mavericks are 7-11-2 ATS at home
• The Celtics are 8-9-1 ATS on the road
• The Mavericks are 3-11-2 ATS against the East
• The Celtics are 7-7-1 ATS against the West
• The Mavericks Over/Under record is 22-16
• The Celtics Over/Under record is 19-18-1
• The Mavericks have gone Over in 4 of the last 5 games
• The Celtics have gone Under in 3 of the last 5 games
• The Mavericks are 1-6 as the Underdog in Straight-Up (ML) wagers
• The Celtics are 24-12 as the favorite in Straight-Up (ML) wagers

 

Celtics vs. Mavericks All-Time Series

Starting in 1980, the Celtics and the Mavericks have played a total of 83 regular season games. The Celtics have the historical advantage, but not by much. Boston has won 43 times, while Dallas has won 40. During the 2020-21 and the 2021-22 seasons, Dallas swept Boston, making it four-consecutive wins over the Celtics. However, the Celtics got their revenge this season, beating the Mavericks 125-112 in Boston’s TD Garden back in November. Boston will look to sweep the Mavs on Thursday and take home their 44th all-time win against Dallas. 

 

Key To The Game: Can Boston Stop Luka?

How can anyone stop Luka? It is a question that is becoming increasingly more frequent for NBA coaches and players. Dončić is on an absolute tear, averaging 43.4 points in his last five games. The scoring is impressive, but Luka does so much more for the Mavericks. Along with averaging the most points per game in the league, he is also leading Dallas in rebounds, assists, and steals. He has a methodical, old-school style to his game. He has mastered the pick-and-roll and loves taking on defenders in the post. While it is not always flashy, it certainly is effective. Boston will need to focus nearly all of their defensive attention on Dončić and force his teammates to step-up and score the rock for Dallas.

 

Top Performers:

Luka Dončić – No surprise here. Luka has been a force to be reckoned with this season. He is averaging 34.3 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 8.9 assists per game, and leads the league for the most points scored by a single-player with 1,201. The last time Dallas played Boston, Dončić recorded 42 points, 8 rebounds, and 9 assists. Barring any serious injuries, god forbid, Luka will once again be Dallas’ top-performer. 

Jayson Tatum – It is always a toss-up between Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown when it comes to predicting the Boston Celtics top-performer. Tatum leads his team with 30.8 points per game, the fifth best average in the league. The last time Boston played Dallas, Tatum posted 37 points, 13 rebounds, and 5 assists. I predict he will once again be the top-performer for Boston against Dallas. 

 

Prediction

Boston will be favored in this one, but I think Dallas will squeak by for the win. Their talisman Luka Dončić is playing out of his mind, seemingly scoring at will and distributing the ball to teammates for high quality looks. Dallas is 15-5 at home, giving them a slight edge over the Celtics, who are 11-7 on the road this year. Boston is all about offense, as they lead the league in points per game with 118.6. They can keep up with the Mavericks, but the Celtics will

struggle to slow down a Dallas offense that is averaging 118.9 points during their seven-game winning streak. The Mavericks have only allowed 110.3 points per game to opponents, and while the Celtics are certainly the Mavs toughest matchup in weeks, Dallas will win this game.

 

Prediction: Dallas Mavericks moneyline and the over; Final score: 123-119

 

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