Denver Nuggets at Miami Heat: NBA Finals Game 4 Prediction, Player Props, and Betting Tips

Sam Batz

The 2023 NBA Finals, between the West’s 1-seed Denver Nuggets and East’s 8-seed Miami Heat, continue on Friday, June 9th with Game 4 (8:30 PM EST, ABC/ESPN2) . Denver leads the series 2-1 after an emphatic Game 3 road win, where the Nuggets beat the Heat 109-94. Denver’s 15-point win on Wednesday was the largest margin-of-victory of these Finals thus far. In Game 4, Miami will look to recoup their losses, while the Nuggets will look to take a 3-1 lead before heading back home. Denver remains the favorite to win the Finals (win probability: 85%), but the Miami Heat are fighters, and they didn’t come this far just to roll over and give up.  

The Denver Nuggets (-3.5; ML -160)

The Nuggets are now 14-4 (77.8%) in the postseason and have looked all that was promised from the Western Conference’s top seeded team. Averaging 114.8 points and 106.6 points against, through 18 playoff games, the Nuggets are everything you’d expect from a title contender. They are led by 2x MVP, Nikola Jokić, who is averaging a triple-double (30.5 points, 13.4 rebounds, and 10.1 assists) and hasn’t put a foot wrong in these Finals. The Joker’s partner in crime, Jamal Murray, was brilliant in Game 3, recording his first triple-double (34 points, 10 assists, 10 rebounds) of the postseason. Amazingly, the Nuggets only made 5 3-pointers in Game 3, going 5/18 (27.8%), and committed 9 more turnovers than Miami, but Denver salvaged the game by scoring 60 points in the paint, and out rebounding the Heat 58 to 33. 

The Miami Heat (+3.5; ML +130)

The Miami Heat made impressive strides winning Game 2 in Denver, becoming the first team of the 2023 playoffs to beat the Nuggets at home, but Miami faltered in Game 3 and now trail once again. The Heat are 13-8 (61.95) in the playoffs, but are being given just a 15% chance to hoist the trophy at the end of the year. Miami is outmatched by the Denver Nuggets, and the Heat’s only path to victory lies beyond the 3-point arch. In both of Miami’s losses, they shot under 35.0% from the 3-point line, but in their Game 2 victory, they shot 48.6% from deep. It may not be the most reliable, or sure fire method to secure a victory, but until the Heat find a way to match Denver on offense, Miami will live or die by the Three.  

Nuggets vs. Heat: Game 4 Odds

We are supported by Caesar Sportsbook. Click here to get up to $1,250 back as a bet credit on your first wager with Caesar.

Nuggets vs. Heat: Postseason Stats

Nuggets vs. Heat: Postseason Betting Trends

Denver Nuggets

• 11-7 ATS in the playoffs
• 5-3 ATS on the ROAD in the playoffs
• 9-9 O/U record in the playoffs
• 4-4 O/U record on the ROAD in the playoffs
• 11-2 as FAVORITES in the playoffs
• 2-1 as FAVORITES on the ROAD in the playoffs

Miami Heat

• 14-7 ATS in the playoffs
• 6-3 ATS at HOME in the playoffs
• 11-9-1 O/U record in the playoffs
• 3-5-1 O/U record at HOME in the playoffs
• 10-7 as UNDERDOGS in the playoffs
• 3-2 as UNDERDOGS at HOME in the playoffs   

Nuggets vs. Heat: NBA Finals Game 4 Prediction

Pick the Heat to cover the spread in Game 4. After their 15-point let down in Game 3, Miami is expected to put together a much better performance at home on Friday. Jimmy Butler has been relatively quiet in the Finals, and while he had 28 points in Game 3, he is averaging just 20.7 points through 3 games. Butler will channel the energy he had in the First Round against Milwaukee, where he averaged 37.5 points in 5 games, and lead his team against the Nuggets. Max Strus, Caleb Martin, and Gabe Vincent, three players that propelled Miami to the Finals, posted horrendous numbers in Game 3, combining for just 20 points. However, I expect Butler and company to have a much improved shooting performance in a crucial Game 4, keeping the Miami Heat in the game from start to finish. 

Prediction: Miami Heat Cover The Spread (+3.5)

Click here to see OSB’s amazing sports betting packages. There are monthly, weekly, and daily options which are designed to fit the needs of every sports betting enthusiast. 

Click here to visit OSB’s blog posts where you will find expert advice on every game, team, sport, and player, improving your chances to win!