Miami Heat at Denver Nuggets: NBA Finals Game 2 Prediction, Player Prop, and Betting Tips

Sam Batz

The 2023 NBA Finals between the Miami Heat and the Denver Nuggets continues on Sunday, June 4th with Game 2 in the Mile High city (8:00 PM EST, ABC/ESPN 2). Denver was dominant in Game 1, beating the Heat 104-93, and didn’t let the nerves take hold in their first ever Finals appearance. The Nuggets played the same game they have all year, distributing the ball with purpose and letting Nikola Jokic do his thing, and it worked perfectly against Miami. The Heat relied heavily on 3-point shooting in Game 1, but went 13/39 (33.3%) from the arch, which certainly isn’t good enough to beat the Nuggets. Denver remains undefeated at home this postseason, and are heavily favored for Game 2 with a -8.5 point spread and a moneyline priced at -375. 

The Miami Heat (+8.5; ML +300)

Miami entered Game 1 of the NBA Finals having won their last 6 Game 1 appearances, but that incredible streak was snapped on Thursday after Miami’s poor shooting performance. The Heat went 39/96 (40.6%) from the Field and 13/39 (33.3%) from the 3-point line. Their main man, Jimmy Butler, recorded just 13 points, his lowest scoring performance of these playoffs and a demoralizing start to the Finals. Bam Adebayo led Miami with 26 points and 13 rebounds, but if Miami’s guards can’t hit their 3’s, the Heat don’t stand a chance against Denver’s prolific offense. Miami is undersized, and before now it didn’t hurt them, but the Denver Nuggets may be too big and too physical for the Heat to make any real impact on the series.  

The Denver Nuggets (-8.5; ML -375)

The Nuggets are now 13-3 (81.3%) this postseason, and after their Game 1 performance there should be no doubt as to who the favorite is. Denver’s the most complete team in the NBA, averaging 115.6 points per game while giving up 107.1 points to the opposition. They are 9-0 at home in the playoffs, and were in complete control of the series opener on Thursday. Superstar Nikola Jokic recorded his 9th triple-double (27 points, 14 assists, 10 rebounds) of these playoffs, and his partner in crime, Jamal Murray, recorded his 2nd double-double (26 points, 10 assists, 6 rebounds) of the postseason. Miami was helpless to slow these two down, and in Game 2, I expect Denver’s dynamic-duo to put together another explosive performance. 

Heat vs. Nuggets: Game 2 Odds

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Heat vs. Nuggets: Postseason Stats

Heat vs. Nuggets: Postseason Betting Trends

Miami Heat

• 13-6 ATS in the postseason
• 7-4 ATS on the ROAD in the postseason
• 10-8-1 O/U record in the postseason
• 9-6 as UNDERDOGS in the postseason
• 6-5 as UNDERDOGS on the ROAD in the postseason

Denver Nuggets

• 10-6 ATS in the postseason
• 6-3 ATS at HOME in the postseason
• 8-8 O/U record in the postseason
• 10-1 as FAVORITES in the postseason
• 9-0 as FAVORITES at HOME in the postseason

Heat vs. Nuggets: Best Player Prop

Michael Porter Jr. (Nuggets Small Forward): Over 15.5 Points (-115)

Michael Porter Jr. recorded his 7th double-double of the postseason, garnering 14 points, 13 rebounds, and 1 assist. Denver’s 6’ 10” Forward appeared to have free reign of the court, as the undersized Miami Heat struggled to contain him. MPJ has a lethal mid-range jumper, but can burst through defenders and get to the rim when he needs to. He is averaging 14.6 points per game, but with Jokic and Murray likely to get most of the attention from Miami’s defense, Porter could be in for a big day. He plays with a calm demeanor that is perfect for these high-pressure games, and I expect MPJ to go over 15.5 points in Game 2.      

Heat vs. Nuggets: NBA Finals Game 2 Prediction

Take the Denver Nuggets to win Game 2 of the NBA Finals. The Nuggets will be 10-0 at home after Sunday, and be up 2-0 on Miami. The Heat have had an incredible postseason run, but I fear this is where the road ends. The Nuggets are too good on either side of the ball, and are playing with an unmatchable determination. Denver has come so close to the Finals in recent years, and now that they’re here, they’re not going to let this opportunity slip. Nikola Jokic is the perfect facilitator for the Finals, as the big man never gets flustered, and always makes the right decision, even in crunch time. Game 2 will be a tighter contest, but the Denver Nuggets will still come out on top. 

Prediction: Denver Nuggets Moneyline (-375)

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