Denver Faces a Tough Test in Conference Finals | Lakers vs Nuggets | OSB
Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets: Western Conference Finals Game 1 Prediction, Player Props, and Betting Tips
By Sam Batz
Only 4 teams remain as the NBA Playoffs enter the Conference Finals. The Western Conference Finals tip-off on Tuesday, May 16th with the Los Angeles Lakers taking on the Denver Nuggets in Game 1 (6:30 PM MDT, ESPN). Neither the Nuggets nor the Lakers have lost at home, and are both 6-0 in their respective arenas. Denver will look to keep that streak alive, while the Lakers are hoping to set the tone with another Game 1 victory. Denver is favored by a -6 point spread and a moneyline priced at -240, and according to FiveThirtyEight, the Nuggets have a win probability of 72% for Game 1. But the No. 7 seeded Lakers have continuously defied expectations this postseason, and LA should not be overlooked in this series.
Los Angeles Lakers (+6; ML +190)
The Los Angeles Lakers missed the playoffs last year, and after starting 2-10 this season, it was looking like another down year for LA. But head coach Darvin Ham never gave up on this team, and as questions arose around whether or not the Lakers would even qualify for the play-in tournament, Ham tuned out the haters, and led his team to the Western Conference Finals. The Lakers are 8-4 (66.7%) this postseason, and just like Denver, LA is undefeated at home (6-0). Unfortunately, as the No. 7 seed, home-court advantage has eluded the Lakers, and they must hit the road, where they are 2-4 (33.3%), for Game 1. Lebron James and Anthony Davis lead the Lakers with 23.4 and 21.2 points per game respectively, but LA needs their bench to play exceptionally well if they are to match Denver’s top-rated offense.
Denver Nuggets (-6; ML -240)
The Denver Nuggets are back in the Western Conference Finals for the first time since 2020, back when they were knocked out by the LA Lakers. Before that, the last time the Nuggets made it this far into the playoffs was in 2009, when they were eliminated by, you guessed it, the LA Lakers. Denver has never been to the NBA Finals, and now faces the same franchise who tarnished their dream the last 2 times the Nuggets came this close. Fortunately for Denver, this is the best team they’ve ever had coming into a Conference Final, and are in a strong position to exact their revenge against the Lakers. The Nuggets are led by 2x MVP Nikola Jokic, who is averaging 30.7 points, 12.8 rebounds, and 9.7 assists per game, and is coming off back-to-back triple-doubles against the Phoenix Suns in the Conference Semis.
Lakers vs. Nuggets: Game 1 Odds
Team | Current Spread | Current Total | Opening Moneyline |
Los Angeles Lakers | +6 (-110) | Ov 222 (-110) | +190 |
Denver Nuggets | -6 (-110) | Un 222 (-110) | -240 |
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Lakers vs. Nuggets: Postseason Stats
Los Angeles Lakers (7) 112.4 107.3 47.0% 33.1% 46.8 12.8 111.6 106.5 6-0 (100.0%) 2-4 (33.3%) | Stat Type Points/Game Opponent Points/Game Field Goal % Three-Point % Rebounds/Game Turnovers/Game Offensive Rating Defensive Rating Home Record (Win-Rate) Away Record (Win-Rate) | Denver Nuggets (1) 115.8 106.6 48.9% 37.9% 44.4 11.5 118.7 110.1 6-0 (100.0%) 2-3 (40.0%) |
Lakers vs. Nuggets: Postseason Betting Trends
Los Angeles Lakers
- 8-4 ATS in the postseason
- 2-4 ATS on the ROAD in the postseason
- 6-6 O/U record in the postseason
- 2-3 as UNDERDOGS in the postseason
- 2-3 as UNDERDOGS on the ROAD in the postseason
Denver Nuggets
- 7-4 ATS in the postseason
- 5-1 ATS at HOME in the postseason
- 6-5 O/U record in the postseason
- 7-1 as FAVORITES in the postseason
- 6-0 as FAVORITES at HOME in the postseason
Lakers vs. Nuggets: Bold Player Prop
Bruce Brown (Nuggets Small Forward): Over 11.5 Points (-105)
Bruce Brown is Denver’s leading scorer off the bench. He has not started a single postseason game, but Brown still averages 26.1 minutes and 12.2 points per game. His tenacity and quick hands make him an invaluable asset to the Nuggets defensively, while his quickness and soft-touch around the rim gives Brown the edge on offense. Bruce Brown scored 14 points in both Game 1 of the First Round and the Conference Semis, and I predict he will do it again and go over 11.5 points in Game 1 of the Conference Finals.
Lakers vs. Nuggets Game 1 Prediction
Take the Denver Nuggets to win Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. LA is 2-0 in Game 1’s this postseason, but Denver is 6-0 at home. The Nuggets have looked unstoppable in their home arena, and while the Lakers have been playing fantastic basketball up to this point, Denver is easily the best team they’ll face in the West. Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray are a deadly combination, and Denver’s depth outweighs the Lakers. It will be a fun series, and the Lakers absolutely deserve to be here, but it’s time for the Nuggets to reach their first NBA Finals, and that starts with a win in Game 1.
Prediction: Denver Nuggets Moneyline (-240)
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