Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets: Conference Semifinal Game 5 Prediction, Player Props, & Betting Tips

By Sam Batz

The NBA Playoffs continue on Tuesday, May 9th when the Phoenix Suns travel back to the Mile High City to face the Denver Nuggets in Game 5 of the Western Conference Semifinals (7:00 PM PST, TNT). The series is even at 2 wins a piece and these title contenders are not holding anything back. The Nuggets took an early 2-0 lead, winning both of their home games, and remain undefeated in Denver this postseason. The Suns then responded with a pair of wins in Phoenix, evening the series and keeping their playoff dreams alive. In Game 5, the Nuggets are -5 point favorites, and are hoping to keep their undefeated home streak going, while the Suns are +5 point underdogs, and are looking to be the first of the series to win on the road. 

The Phoenix Suns (+5; ML +165)

The Suns are 6-3 this postseason, and after 9 games, are shooting the highest field goal percentage (50.5%) of any team left in the playoffs. Phoenix is looking to become the first No. 4 seed to win the NBA Championship since 1969. The Suns are led by Devin Booker and Kevin Durant, who are each averaging 30.0 or more points per game, and combined for 72 points (36 points each) in Phoenix’s Game 4 victory. The Suns are 14-3 (82.4%) with KD on the floor, but 2 of those losses came against Denver at home just a few weeks ago. The Nuggets are tough to beat at home, but the Suns are eager to get back to the Finals, and might have what it takes to upset the No. 1 seed on Tuesday.  

The Denver Nuggets (-5; ML -200)

The Nuggets entered the postseason as the No. 1 seed in the West for the first time in franchise history. Denver had a great year, winning 64.6% of their total games, and 82.9% of their home games. The Nuggets are led by last year’s MVP, Nikola Jokic, who is averaging 30.8 points, 13.1 rebound, and 9.2 assists per game in the playoffs. Jokic had a monster performance in Game 4, recording a Nuggets all-time playoff-high of 53 points, to go along with his 11 assists and 4 rebounds, but unfortunately Denver wasted their leader’s greatness, and ultimately lost the game. As good as Denver is at home, they have been terrible on the road, winning just 1 away game this postseason, and if Phoenix can steal the win on Tuesday, Denver’s odds to advance fall dramatically. 

Suns vs. Nuggets: Game 5 Odds

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Suns vs. Nuggets: Playoff Stats

Suns vs. Nuggets: Playoff Betting Trends

Phoenix Suns

• 4-5 ATS in the postseason
• 1-3 ATS on the ROAD in the postseason
• 6-3 O/U record in the postseason
• 0-2 as UNDERDOGS in the postseason
• 0-2 as UNDERDOGS on the ROAD in the postseason

Denver Nuggets

• 5-4 ATS in the postseason
• 5-0 ATS at HOME in the postseason
• 6-3 O/U record in the postseason
• 6-1 as FAVORITES in the postseason
• 5-0 as FAVORITES at HOME in the postseason

Suns vs. Nuggets: Player Props

Devin Booker (Suns Shooting Guard): Over 31.5 Points (-115)

Booker is the leading scorer of the 2023 Playoffs, and is showing no signs of slowing down. Injuries have affected many of the top-players this postseason, but Devin Booker has remained unscathed and is playing the best basketball of his career. Booker has recorded 30 or more points in 7 out of 9 postseason matchups, recording 40 or more points 3 times. Suns veteran Point Guard Chris Paul remains listed on the injury report as questionable, and if Paul misses Game 5, Booker’s scoring opportunities will sky rocket. I predict Devin Booker goes over 31.5 points in Game 5 on Tuesday.

Jamal Murray (Nuggets Point Guard): Over 25.5 Points (-110)

Jamal Murray had his worst game of the postseason in Game2 on Monday, May 5th against the Suns. He recorded just 10 points on 3-15 (20.0%) from the field and 0-9 (0%) from Three. Yet the Nuggets still won the game despite Murray’s struggles. He bounced back with 32 points in Game 3, and then 28 points in Game 4. Murray is typically a solid prop pick to do well at home, averaging 28.6 points in Denver, and I predict he will go over 25.5 points against Phoenix on Tuesday. 

Suns vs. Nuggets Game 5 Prediction

Take the Denver Nuggets to win Game 5.  Denver’s domination at home has been outstanding to watch, and I don’t see the Suns as the team to hand the Nuggets their first home loss of the postseason. Phoenix took care of business in their home court, but they gave up a lot of points in the process, something that will kill their chances when they get to Denver. The Nuggets held the Suns to an average of 97.0 points through the first 2 games, and although Phoenix’s one-two punch with Booker and Durant can be deadly, the Nuggets can handle it. This truly feels like a back-and-forth series that will be decided in Game 7, which is why I’d going with Denver to win Game 5 at home. 

Prediction: Denver Nuggets Moneyline (-200)

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