Miami Heat at Boston Celtics: Eastern Conference Finals Game 1 Prediction, Player Props, and Betting Tips

Sam Batz

After a contentious Semifinal, only two teams remain in the East, and on Wednesday, May 17th the Eastern Conference Finals begin with Game 1 between the Miami Heat and the Boston Celtics (8:30 PM EST, TNT). It’s a repeat matchup of last year’s Eastern Conference Final. The Celtics won that series 4-3, but Miami took it all the way to a Game 7, and only lost the deciding game by 4-points (96-100). Boston went on to represent the East in the Finals, but ultimately fell to the Golden State Warriors. This year, both Miami and Boston are seeking redemption, which has created the perfect environment for a hotly contested and highly entertaining Eastern Conference Final. 

The Miami Heat (+8.5; ML +280)

When the playoffs began, the Miami Heat were possibly the most unlikely squad to reach the Conference Finals. Not because they are a bad team, but because their path to the Finals was, and still is, loaded with tremendously difficult obstacles. First it was the Play-In, where Miami lost to Atlanta but then beat Chicago, clinching the No. 8 seed. The Heat were out of the frying pan, but had stepped into the fire, as their next opponent was the No. 1 seed with the best record in the NBA, the Milwaukee Bucks. Obviously Miami didn’t buy into the notion that they were severely out-matched, because the Heat beat Milwaukee 4-1 in the First Round, setting themselves up for a date with the Knicks in the Conference Semis, who Miami beat 4-2, securing their second-straight trip to the Eastern Conference Finals. The Heat are obviously not your typical No. 8 seed, as they are 8-3 in the playoffs, undefeated at home (5-0), and are playing like a team that’s been here before, which should certainly give the Boston Celtics pause heading into Game 1. 

The Boston Celtics (-8.5; ML -350)

Last year’s Eastern Conference Champions are back to defend their title. The Boston Celtics had a great season, and after ending the year just 1.0 game behind the top-ranked Milwaukee Bucks, Boston was awarded the No. 2 seed and entered the Playoffs as a favorite to win it all. The Celtics breezed past the Atlanta Hawks in the First Round, scoring 121.2 points per game, but in the Conference Semis, Joel Embiid’s Philadelphia 76ers took Boston all the way to a Game 7, but the Sixers choked in the last 2 matchups by scoring less than 90-points in Games 6 and 7, allowing the Celtics to reach their 2nd-consecutive Eastern Conference Final. Boston is 8-5 in the postseason, but have the best odds to win it all at +100. FiveThirtyEight has calculated that the Celtics have a 78% chance to beat Miami in the Conference Finals, and are being given a 73% chance to win Game 1, making Boston the safe bet in this series. 

Heat vs. Celtics: Game 1 Odds

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Heat vs. Celtics: Postseason Stats

Heat vs. Celtics: Postseason Betting Trends

Miami Heat

• 8-3 ATS in the postseason
• 4-2 ATS on the ROAD in the postseason
• 7-3-1 O/U record in the postseason
• 5-3 as UNDERDOGS in the postseason
• 3-3 as UNDERDOGS on the ROAD in the postseason

Boston Celtics

• 8-5 ATS in the postseason
• 4-3 ATS at HOME in the postseason
• 8-5 O/U record in the postseason
• 8-4 as FAVORITES in the postseason
• 4-3 as FAVORITES at HOME in the postseason

Heat vs. Celtics: Bold Player Prop

Jaylen Brown (Celtics Shooting Guard): Over 24.5 Points (-110)

Jaylen Brown plays an important role in Boston’s gameplan. In his 6th postseason, Brown is averaging 24.6 points per game, but averaged 30.3 points per game against the Miami Heat during the regular season. His teammate Jayson Tatum draws a lot of defensive attention, leaving room for Jaylen to make back-door cuts and find open looks. Miami is a great defensive team but they’ll only be able to slow down either Tatum or Brown, and I think they’ll focus on the former, allowing Jaylen to go to work. I predict Jaylen Brown will go over 24.5 points in Game 1. 

Heat vs. Celtics Game 1 Prediction

Take the Miami Heat to cover the spread in Game 1. 8.5 points is too generous for the Celtics, but it tracks with how sportsbooks have treated the Heat in the postseason. Miami has gotten very little respect from Vegas in these playoffs, and a +8.5 point spread is something the Heat can easily cover. Boston is coming off an exhausting series against the Sixers, while Miami has had additional time to rest and prepare. Jimmy Butler has been phenomenal for Miami, and after losing to the Celtics last year, he’ll come out fired up and ready to make Game 1 difficult for Boston. 

Prediction: Miami Heat Cover The Spread (+8.5)

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