Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: Odds, Prediction, and Betting Tips

By Sam Batz

On Friday, January 6th, the Cleveland Cavaliers (nba.com/cavaliers) will travel to the Mile High City for a heavyweight clash with the Denver Nuggets (nba.com/nuggets). Friday’s game will be the first of a five-game road trip for the Cavaliers, who are 7-10 on the road this season. Cleveland is coming off a 90-88 win over the Phoenix Suns on Wednesday, and enters the matchup with Denver on a three-game win streak. Denver, on the other hand, lost their last contest 124-111 to the Minnesota Timberwolves. Friday’s game against Cleveland will be the second of a back-to-back at home for Denver, where they are a formidable 14-3. 

 

Cleveland’s Chances

The Cavaliers are the 4th seed in the East at 25-14. They are 7-3 in their last ten games, beating top-tier opponents like the Pacers, Bucks, Mavericks, and Jazz. However, they also lost to the Spurs 112-111, so maybe take that with a grain of salt. Regardless, Cleveland is a great team. They are led by three-time All-Star Donovan Mitchell, who scored an astonishing 71-points on Monday against the Chicago Bulls, and is averaging 29.0 points per game. Jarrett Allen cleans up the boards for Clevland, raking in 10.1 rebounds per game, the tenth best in the league. 

The Cavs could be without Point Guard Darius Garland, who missed Clevlands last game against Phoenix with a thumb injury. Garland is averaging 21.4 points and is leading the Cavs in assists, with 7.8 per game, the sixth best in the league. Garland will be sorely missed if he can’t go against Denver. ESPN Analytics is giving Cleveland a 52.8% chance to beat the Nuggets on Friday. It is a generous predictor, especially with Garland likely to miss the game. Not to mention the fact that Denver is excellent at home. However, Cleveland has the sixth best record in the NBA, and allows a league leading 106.4 points per game. 

 

Denver’s Chances  

The Nuggets have a 24-13 record and are tied for first place in the West. Reigning back-to-back MVP Nikola Jokić leads Denver in nearly every offensive statistic. “The Joker” is averaging 25.6 points, 10.8 rebounds, 9.5 assists, and 1.4 steals for the Nuggets, and is leading the league with 9 triple-doubles on the season. Jokić is the main artery of a fantastic Denver offense, but is certainly not the only vital vein. The Nuggets offense is a plethora of talent, with six-players, including Jokić, averaging over 10-points per game. As a whole, the team averages 116.4 points per game and is second in total assists with 1,062. 

ESPN Analytics is giving the Nuggets a 47.2% chance against Cleveland, which is strange since Denver will likely be the favorite. The Nuggets have a good chance to win this matchup, considering Cleveland has given up an average of 116.8 points in their last five games. While Denver has averaged 119.4 points in their last five games. Furthermore, the Nuggets aren’t dealing with any serious injuries, and are one of the top ranked teams in offensive efficiency. The only downside is Denver will be tired. The matchup with Cleveland will be the second of a back-to-back for the Nuggets, which could result in some fatigue, hindering their chances against the Cavs. 

 

Cavaliers vs. Nuggets Odds

Betting odds courtesy of Pointsbet:

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Betting Trends

• The Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in their last five games
• The Cavaliers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games
• The Nuggets are 10-7 ATS at home
• The Cavaliers are 6-11 ATS on the road
• The Nuggets are 4-6 ATS against the East
• The Cavaliers are 6-8 ATS against the West
• The Nuggets Over/Under record is 19-18
• The Cavaliers Over/Under record is 18-21
• The Nuggets have gone OVER in 3 of the last 5 games
• The Cavaliers have gone OVER in 3 of the last 5 games
• The Nuggets are 19-9 as the Favorite in Straight-Up (ML) wagers
• The Cavaliers are 3-5 as the Underdog in Straight-Up (ML) wagers

 

Key To The Game: Will The League’s Best Defense Be Able To Stop Nikola Jokić?

Jokić has won the MVP award in back-to-back seasons (2021 & 2022), becoming the 13th player in NBA history to accomplish that incredible feat. In 2023, he will look to become just the 4th player in NBA history to win three-consecutive MVP awards, joining a list of legends that includes: Wilt Chamberlain, Bill Russell, and Larry Bird. It may seem far-fetched, but with the numbers Nikola Jokić is posting this season, a historic MVP three-peat is not out of the question. According to Pointsbet, “The Joker ” is tied with Giannis Antetokounmpo for second place in the MVP race at +350 (Luka Dončić leads at +275). 

Cleveland will need to focus most of their defensive attention on Jokić, but with the big-man’s incredible passing ability, stopping him from scoring isn’t even the biggest obstacle. Jokić is third in total assists with 324, which is just ridiculous for a player in his position. At just 27-years old, and with only 561 games played, Jokić has 3,605 career assists, putting him at sixth all-time for career assists by a Center. Jokić is an absolute monster and Cleveland will struggle to keep him in check. 

Prediction

I like Denver in this game. All of their starters are healthy, they have been dominant in their home arena, and Nikola Jokić will lead his team to victory with another outstanding performance. However, it will by no means be an easy game for the Nuggets. The Cavaliers play an imposing style of defense, preventing chances near the rim and forcing their opponents to take low-percentage shots from the outside. Nevertheless, the Denver offense is playing too well at the moment, scoring over 120-points in five of their last seven games. Cleveland’s defense is solid, but I’d go with the Denver offense in this one.   

 

Prediction: Denver Nuggets Moneyline and the Over. 

 

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