Houston Rockets vs Golden State Warriors Game 4: Expert Analysis & Betting Predictions

The Battle Intensifies: Series Context and Momentum Shifts

The NBA playoff intensity reaches new heights as the Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors prepare for a critical Game 4 showdown at the Chase Center. With the Warriors currently holding a 2-1 series lead, this Monday night matchup represents a pivotal juncture in this Western Conference First Round series. The experienced Warriors look to capitalize on home-court advantage and take a commanding 3-1 lead, while the young Rockets desperately need a road victory to even the series before heading back to Houston.

This series has showcased a fascinating contrast of styles—the veteran savvy and championship DNA of Golden State against the youthful energy and athleticism of Houston. Through three games, we’ve witnessed defensive battles with both teams struggling to break the 100-point threshold, contrary to the regular season offensive outputs of these squads. This defensive trend could continue to define the series moving forward.

Houston Rockets: Searching for Road Resilience

The Rockets find themselves at a crossroads after dropping two of the first three games in this series. While they’ve shown flashes of brilliance, consistency has eluded them at crucial moments. Their recent form is concerning, having lost five of their last six contests overall. However, their road performance offers a glimmer of hope—Houston has secured victories in six of their last ten away games, demonstrating they can perform in hostile environments.

Offensively, the Rockets have struggled to find their rhythm, averaging just 95.7 points on 41.3% shooting from the field in this series. Their normally reliable three-point shooting has dipped to 33%, while their free-throw efficiency has been problematic at only 64.1%. These offensive woes have placed additional pressure on their defensive efforts.

Alperen Sengun has been Houston’s most consistent performer, averaging an impressive double-double with 19.3 points and 12 rebounds per game. Jalen Green, despite not matching his regular-season scoring average of 21.0 points, has contributed 18 points and 6 rebounds per contest. Dillon Brooks has provided a third scoring option, while Fred VanVleet—who ranks 8th in the league in steals per game (1.6)—has been contributing across multiple categories.

The Rockets’ rebounding advantage (50 per game) has been one of their few consistent strengths in this series, giving them crucial extra possessions that have kept games competitive despite their shooting struggles.

Golden State Warriors: Defending Home Court

The Warriors have been formidable at Chase Center, winning 12 of their last 16 home games and establishing it as a fortress during the postseason. Their playoff experience continues to shine through in crucial moments, even as they navigate personnel challenges.

Golden State’s offensive production in this series (97.7 points per game on 43.9% shooting) falls below their regular season standards, but they’ve compensated with stellar defensive efforts, holding the Rockets to just 95.7 points per contest. Their three-point shooting efficiency (35.8%) has given them a slight edge in this department, while their superior free-throw shooting (72.3% compared to Houston’s 64.1%) has helped them close out tight games.

Stephen Curry has been the Warriors’ offensive engine, averaging 29 points and 7 assists through three games. His ability to create scoring opportunities and maintain efficiency under playoff pressure continues to separate him from his peers. Jimmy Butler has contributed 14 points and 3 assists per game when available, though his questionable status with a deep gluteal muscle contusion remains a significant concern after missing Game 3. Pat Spencer has emerged as a surprise third scoring option, while Brandin Podziemski’s rebounding prowess (ranking 20th among qualified guards at 5.1 rebounds per game during the regular season) has helped mitigate Houston’s advantage on the glass.

The Betting Landscape: Trends and Factors

The Warriors enter as favorites, backed by several compelling trends. They’ve won 11 consecutive playoff home games against Southwest Division opponents, and favorites have covered the spread in seven of their last eight playoff contests. Meanwhile, the Rockets have struggled historically in this specific scenario, losing 11 of their last 12 Western Conference First Round road games against Pacific Division teams and failing to cover the spread in their last five playoff games as underdogs.

However, countervailing trends favor Houston. The Warriors have lost their last three games as favorites following a win, and they’ve failed to cover the spread in their last four home games after a home victory. The Rockets have shown resilience as underdogs, winning three of their last four Western Conference First Round games in that role and covering the spread in four of their last five such contests.

Injury Report: Key Personnel Decisions

The injury spotlight remains firmly on Jimmy Butler, who remains questionable with his gluteal contusion. His absence in Game 3 forced additional responsibilities onto Curry and altered Golden State’s rotation strategies. For Houston, the continued absences of Jae’Sean Tate and Jock Landale affect their depth but haven’t significantly altered their core rotation.

Butler’s availability represents perhaps the most impactful variable for Game 4. If he remains sidelined, the Warriors will need continued elevated performances from supporting cast members to maintain their series advantage.

Expert Prediction and Analysis

While conventional wisdom favors the Warriors at home—particularly given their playoff experience advantage—several factors suggest this game could be closer than the spread indicates. Houston led for substantial portions of Game 3 despite falling short, demonstrating their competitive capacity even on the road. Their youth and depth provide physical advantages that become increasingly relevant as the series extends and fatigue accumulates for Golden State’s veterans.

Curry’s heavy minutes load raises sustainability questions, especially if Butler remains unavailable. Green’s inconsistent performance represents a wild card—if he approaches his regular-season scoring average of 21 points, Houston’s chances improve dramatically.

The betting recommendation leans toward Houston covering the spread, even as Golden State secures a narrow victory. Expect another defensive struggle with both teams continuing to shoot below their regular-season percentages, pointing toward the under as a strong total consideration.

Prediction: Warriors win 98-94, but Rockets cover the spread. The total goes UNDER.

Game Insights

Can Stephen Curry maintain his efficiency with increased defensive attention?

With Butler potentially sidelined again, Houston will deploy multiple defensive looks designed specifically to disrupt Curry’s rhythm. Despite this pressure, Curry’s playoff experience and conditioning program designed for postseason endurance should allow him to maintain around 45% field goal efficiency while continuing to create opportunities for teammates when double-teamed.

Will the Rockets solve their free-throw shooting woes?

Houston’s 64.1% free-throw efficiency represents a significant liability that has already cost them crucial points. Historical playoff data suggests young teams typically see marginal improvement in this area as series progress and players become more comfortable with the heightened pressure environment. Expect slight improvement to around 68-70%.

How significant is the rebounding battle to the game’s outcome?

The rebounding differential has been a key factor through three games, with Houston’s 12-rebound advantage providing additional possession opportunities that have kept games competitive despite their shooting struggles. If the Warriors can reduce this gap to single digits, their superior shooting efficiency should prove decisive.

What tactical adjustments might we see from either coach?

Look for Houston’s Ime Udoka to implement more pick-and-roll actions designed to force defensive switches that isolate Sengun against smaller defenders. Meanwhile, Steve Kerr will likely continue emphasizing early offense transitions to capitalize on Houston’s occasional defensive lapses before their half-court defense establishes position.