04/22/25 Thunder vs Grizzlies: NBA Expert betting analysis and predictions

Thunder vs Grizzlies Game 2 Preview: Can Memphis Bounce Back After Historic Blowout?

After suffering one of the most lopsided defeats in NBA playoff history, the Memphis Grizzlies face a critical Game 2 against the Oklahoma City Thunder on Tuesday night at Paycom Center. Following a devastating 51-point blowout (131-80) in the series opener, Memphis must regroup quickly or risk heading home in an 0-2 hole against the Western Conference’s top young squad. Let’s break down what went wrong, what needs to change, and where the betting value lies for Game 2.

Grizzlies Seeking Redemption After Game 1 Disaster

The Memphis Grizzlies entered this series with momentum after battling through the Play-In Tournament, but that positive energy evaporated quickly in Sunday’s opener. Memphis looked completely outmatched in every facet of the game, shooting a woeful 34% from the field while connecting on just 6 of 34 attempts (17.6%) from beyond the arc.

Ja Morant managed 17 points but couldn’t find his typical rhythm against OKC’s swarming defense. Marvin Bagley III matched Morant’s 17 points on perfect 8-for-8 shooting in a rare bright spot off the bench, but the Grizzlies’ other key contributors were essentially no-shows.

Most concerning for Memphis was the disappearing act from their supporting stars. Desmond Bane, typically a reliable scoring option, managed just 9 points on 3-of-12 shooting. Jaren Jackson Jr., the former Defensive Player of the Year candidate, was even worse, converting only 2 of 13 field goal attempts for 4 points while struggling to contain OKC’s frontcourt attack.

The turnover battle proved especially problematic, with Memphis coughing up the ball 24 times, leading to a barrage of transition opportunities for the Thunder. The Grizzlies were outscored 32-2 in fastbreak points, a differential that perfectly illustrates the lopsided nature of the contest.

Thunder’s Balanced Attack Overwhelms Memphis

Oklahoma City showcased why they’ve been one of the NBA’s most pleasant surprises this season. Despite a relatively quiet night from superstar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (15 points, 5 assists), the Thunder demonstrated their impressive depth and versatility.

Aaron Wiggins led the scoring charge with 21 points off the bench, while Jalen Williams added 20 points and 6 assists in a stellar two-way performance. Perhaps most impressive was second-year center Chet Holmgren, who dominated the interior with 19 points and 19 rebounds while altering countless Memphis shots at the rim.

The Thunder’s defense proved to be the story of Game 1, forcing those 24 turnovers and limiting Memphis to just 80 points—far below their season average. OKC shot an efficient 50% from the field and connected on 17 three-pointers, building a 32-point halftime lead that allowed them to cruise through the second half.

Head coach Mark Daigneault’s squad appears to have benefited tremendously from their extended rest leading into the playoffs, looking fresh and focused while the Grizzlies seemed a step slow throughout the contest.

Key Statistical Matchups To Watch

Several statistical trends point strongly in Oklahoma City’s favor heading into Game 2:

  • The Thunder have now won nine consecutive games against the Grizzlies
  • Memphis has dropped eight straight games against OKC teams with winning records
  • The Thunder have covered the spread in 12 consecutive home games against Memphis when the Grizzlies held a winning record
  • Memphis has failed to cover the spread in their last eight games at Paycom Center

However, the Grizzlies do have some historical precedent for a bounce-back:

  • Memphis has won three of their last four playoff games as road underdogs against OKC following a loss
  • The Thunder have lost six of their last seven Game 2s in Western Conference First Round series
  • The Grizzlies have covered the spread in their last three games at Paycom Center following a road loss

Individual Performer Spotlight

Keep an eye on these key players who could swing Game 2:

Thunder:

  • Jalen Williams ranks 7th among qualified NBA players in steals per game (1.6)
  • Luguentz Dort has developed into a reliable three-point threat, ranking 26th in 3P% (41.2%)
  • Chet Holmgren’s rim protection will remain crucial after his dominant Game 1 performance

Grizzlies:

  • Desmond Bane ranks 8th in free throw percentage (89.4%) and needs to be more aggressive
  • Rookie Zach Edey ranks 8th in rebounds per 36 minutes (13.9) and could see increased minutes
  • Ja Morant must rediscover his explosiveness after appearing limited in Game 1

Thunder vs Grizzlies Game 2 Prediction

While Memphis will undoubtedly play with greater urgency and improved execution in Game 2, the fundamental matchup problems remain. Oklahoma City’s defensive pressure seems perfectly designed to disrupt Memphis’s offense, particularly with their ability to force turnovers and contest perimeter shots.

The Grizzlies simply lack the firepower to keep pace with Oklahoma City’s balanced scoring attack, especially if Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane continue struggling with their offensive efficiency. Memphis coach Taylor Jenkins will make adjustments, but without Brandon Clarke and Jaylen Wells, their rotational options remain limited.

Expect a more competitive contest initially, but Oklahoma City’s superior talent and home-court advantage should ultimately prevail. The Thunder’s defensive intensity will again prove too much for Memphis to overcome.

Final Prediction: Thunder win 116-101 and cover the spread, with the total going under as defense dominates.

Expert Insights

Is Ja Morant fully healthy for this series?

Morant doesn’t appear to be operating at 100% capacity. His explosiveness seemed somewhat diminished in Game 1, and the Thunder’s perimeter defenders had success keeping him out of the paint. If Memphis has any hope of making this a competitive series, they need Morant at his dynamic best.

Will Taylor Jenkins adjust his rotation for Game 2?

Expect Jenkins to give more minutes to Zach Edey, whose rebounding could help neutralize Holmgren’s interior presence. We might also see additional time for Luke Kennard to improve floor spacing, as Memphis desperately needs more three-point shooting.

Can the Grizzlies fix their turnover problems?

The 24 turnovers from Game 1 are simply unsustainable. Look for Memphis to prioritize ball security with more deliberate offensive sets and fewer high-risk passes. Even cutting the turnovers in half would give them a fighting chance to remain competitive.

Is Oklahoma City’s defensive performance sustainable?

The Thunder’s defensive intensity in Game 1 wasn’t a fluke—it’s been their calling card all season. While Memphis will certainly score more than 80 points in Game 2, OKC’s combination of length, quickness, and disciplined rotations will continue to create problems for the Grizzlies’ offensive flow.

What’s the X-factor for Game 2?

Three-point shooting differential. Memphis shot just 17.6% from deep in Game 1, while Oklahoma City connected at a respectable 35.4% rate. If the Grizzlies can’t narrow this gap significantly, they’ll be heading back to Memphis facing a 2-0 deficit.