Memphis Grizzlies vs Dallas Mavericks: Critical Play-In Tournament Showdown Analysis

Western Conference Play-In Finale: Win-or-Go-Home at FedExForum

The stakes couldn’t be higher as the Memphis Grizzlies (48-34) host the Dallas Mavericks (43-39) in a high-pressure win-or-go-home NBA Play-In Tournament finale on Friday, April 18, 2025. This critical matchup at FedExForum will determine which team secures the coveted eighth seed in the Western Conference playoffs and advances to face the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder (57-25) in a first-round series.

The Grizzlies enter as 6.5-point favorites despite coming off a disappointing 112-104 loss to the Golden State Warriors in their previous play-in matchup. Memphis’s championship aspirations now hang in the balance, with their postseason hopes potentially complicated by star point guard Ja Morant’s questionable status due to a right ankle sprain suffered in Tuesday’s defeat.

Meanwhile, the Mavericks have navigated a season of remarkable transition following the blockbuster midseason trade that sent franchise cornerstone Luka Dončić to the Los Angeles Lakers. Despite the roster upheaval, Dallas demonstrated impressive resilience in their 120-106 victory over the Sacramento Kings in Wednesday’s elimination game, where former Lakers Anthony Davis (27 points, 9 rebounds) and four-time NBA champion Klay Thompson (23 points, 5 three-pointers) led the charge.

Team Dynamics and Key Matchups to Watch

The Grizzlies’ offensive strategy has evolved significantly this season, with Desmond Bane stepping into a more prominent scoring role, averaging 19.1 points per game while shooting an efficient 48.7% from the field and 39.3% from beyond the arc. Bane’s 30-point explosion against the Warriors highlighted his ability to carry the offensive load when needed.

Jaren Jackson Jr. has also been integral to Memphis’s success, contributing 22.2 points per game while anchoring their defensive schemes. However, his effectiveness may be tested against the formidable Dallas frontcourt featuring Anthony Davis and rookie sensation Derrick Lively II, whose 7’1″ frame and elite rim protection could disrupt Jackson’s scoring opportunities.

For Dallas, the acquisition of Anthony Davis has transformed their identity into a defense-first unit that relies on his versatility as both a scoring threat and defensive anchor. The unexpected chemistry between Davis and Thompson has given the Mavericks a dangerous inside-out combination that has proven particularly effective in high-pressure situations.

The backcourt battle between Memphis’s ball handlers and Dallas’s perimeter defenders will be crucial, especially if Morant is limited or unavailable. The Grizzlies may need increased production from supporting players like Marcus Smart (12.4 PPG, 5.2 APG) and Luke Kennard (9.8 PPG, 42.5% 3PT) to compensate.

Statistical Breakdown: Where the Game May Be Won

The teams’ four regular-season meetings were split 2-2, with the home team winning each contest. Memphis has traditionally held a significant advantage at FedExForum, where they’ve posted a 28-13 record this season compared to a more modest 20-21 mark on the road.

Dallas’s defensive rating improved from 112.8 before the Dončić trade to 108.3 after acquiring Davis, placing them among the league’s top five defensive units during that span. This defensive transformation could prove pivotal in a high-stakes elimination game where possessions become increasingly valuable.

The pace factor will be significant, as Memphis prefers an up-tempo style (102.3 possessions per game, 4th in NBA) while Dallas has slowed considerably since their roster overhaul (97.1 possessions per game post-trade, 27th in NBA). Whichever team can impose their preferred tempo will gain a substantial advantage.

In clutch situations (games within five points in the final five minutes), Memphis has struggled with a 17-21 record, while Dallas has shown remarkable poise at 22-15. This disparity could prove decisive in what projects to be a tightly contested elimination game.

Expert Betting Analysis and Picks

While the 6.5-point spread favors Memphis, several factors suggest this game could be closer than the oddsmakers project. The uncertain status of Ja Morant significantly impacts Memphis’s offensive ceiling, while Dallas enters with momentum and championship-tested veterans accustomed to elimination pressure.

The total has been set at 222.5 points, which appears slightly elevated given Dallas’s defensive improvement and the typically reduced scoring environment of playoff-intensity basketball. Additionally, the defensive prowess of Anthony Davis and Derrick Lively II could disrupt Memphis’s interior scoring, potentially forcing them into lower-percentage jumpers.

Based on recent performance and matchup dynamics, I’m leaning toward Memphis to win outright but Dallas to cover the 6.5-point spread. The under on 222.5 total points also presents value considering the defensive intensity typically displayed in elimination scenarios.

Player Prop Opportunities Worth Targeting

Klay Thompson Over 14.5 Points (-115)

Thompson has found his rhythm at the perfect time, averaging 16.8 points over his last seven games while shooting 41.2% from the field and 38.9% from three-point territory this season. His 23-point outburst against Sacramento on 8-of-11 shooting (5-of-7 from deep) demonstrated his continued ability to elevate in postseason atmospheres.

Thompson’s championship pedigree and extensive playoff experience make him particularly valuable in this elimination context. Dallas will need his scoring production to balance their attack, and his improved shot selection since arriving in Dallas suggests he’ll continue to receive quality looks within the offensive flow. His postseason career average of 19.8 points further supports confidence in this selection.

Desmond Bane Over 22.5 Points (-110)

With Morant potentially limited, Bane becomes Memphis’s primary scoring option. His season average of 19.1 points underrepresents his recent production, as he’s averaged 24.7 points over his last nine games, including 30 against Golden State in the previous play-in contest.

Bane’s improved shot creation and three-level scoring ability make him a difficult cover for Dallas’s perimeter defenders. His 39.3% three-point accuracy on high volume (7.4 attempts per game) provides a solid floor for his scoring output, while his improved finishing at the rim (66% within three feet) offers scoring diversity that should help him exceed this total.

Jaren Jackson Jr. Under 20.5 Points (-118)

Despite averaging 22.2 points this season, Jackson faces significant challenges against Dallas’s formidable frontcourt. Anthony Davis’s defensive versatility and Derrick Lively’s shot-blocking presence (1.8 blocks per game) create a difficult matchup dynamic for Jackson, who managed just 18 points against Golden State’s smaller lineup.

Jackson’s scoring efficiency tends to decrease against elite rim protectors, and Dallas’s defensive scheme will likely focus on limiting his interior opportunities. Additionally, if Memphis emphasizes perimeter scoring to counter Dallas’s interior defense, Jackson may see fewer touches in his preferred scoring zones. His 42% field goal percentage against Dallas this season supports this under projection.

Expert Insights

Will Ja Morant’s injury status significantly impact the outcome?

Absolutely. Morant’s dynamic playmaking creates opportunities for teammates even when his own scoring is limited. If he’s unable to play or is significantly hampered, Memphis loses both their primary creator and the gravity he generates by drawing defensive attention. Historical data shows the Grizzlies’ offensive rating drops by 8.7 points per 100 possessions when Morant sits, making his status perhaps the single most important factor in this matchup.

How crucial is rebounding in determining the winner?

Rebounding could be the decisive statistical category. Dallas ranks 3rd in offensive rebounding percentage (31.2%) since acquiring Davis, while Memphis struggles on the defensive glass (22nd in defensive rebounding percentage at 71.8%). Second-chance opportunities become magnified in playoff-intensity games where possessions are at a premium, potentially giving Dallas a critical advantage if they can exploit this disparity.

Can Dallas’s revamped roster handle the playoff pressure?

While this specific group lacks extensive time together, their individual playoff pedigrees are impressive. Thompson (123 playoff games, 4 championships), Davis (48 playoff games, 1 championship), and several role players have thrived in high-pressure environments. Their composed performance against Sacramento suggests they’ve developed sufficient chemistry to compete effectively, though Memphis’s home-court advantage presents a significant challenge.

What’s the X-factor to watch in this elimination game?

Three-point variance could determine the outcome. Memphis attempts the 7th most three-pointers in the league (37.4 per game) while Dallas ranks 19th (32.8). However, Dallas has been more efficient (36.9% vs. Memphis’s 35.8%). In a single-elimination format, an outlier shooting performance from either team could overcome other statistical disadvantages, making perimeter defense and three-point shooting perhaps the most unpredictable and potentially decisive elements.