Yankees vs. Athletics Prediction: Rodon’s Road Dominance Will Continue in Oakland

Yankees-Athletics Series Opener: Battle of Red-Hot Pitchers

The first-place New York Yankees (21-16) continue their West Coast road trip with a visit to the Oakland Coliseum to face the surprising Oakland Athletics (20-18) on Friday, May 10. This intriguing matchup features two starting pitchers who have found their groove after shaky starts to the 2025 season.

The Yankees enter this series fresh off taking two of three games from the San Diego Padres, maintaining their position atop the competitive AL East. Meanwhile, the Athletics have exceeded early-season expectations and currently hold second place in the AL West, despite dropping two of three against division rival Seattle in their previous series.

Friday’s series opener presents an excellent opportunity for baseball bettors, with the Yankees established as moderate favorites behind their ace left-hander Carlos Rodon.

Pitching Matchup Analysis: Rodon vs. Sears

Carlos Rodon (4-3, 2.96 ERA, 0.92 WHIP)

Carlos Rodon has transformed into one of the American League’s most dominant pitchers over the past month. After a concerning start where he surrendered 15 runs across his first four outings, Rodon has been nearly untouchable since mid-April:

• Last 25.2 innings: Only 3 runs allowed (2 earned)

• Road splits: 3-1 record, 2.52 ERA, .141 opponent batting average

• No earned runs allowed in three of his last four starts

• Last outing: 6.2 scoreless innings against San Diego (5 strikeouts)

Rodon’s remarkable turnaround coincides perfectly with this Oakland matchup, as he’s historically dominated Athletics hitters. Current Oakland batters are just 12-for-28 (.214) lifetime against him with minimal power production.

JP Sears (4-2, 2.93 ERA, 1.00 WHIP)

Facing Rodon is former Yankees farmhand JP Sears, who has followed a similar trajectory this season:

• First three starts: 8 runs allowed over 17 innings (4.24 ERA)

• Last four starts: 5 runs allowed over 29 innings (1.55 ERA)

• Home splits: 1-1 record, 5.00 ERA, .289 opponent batting average

• Last outing: 6.1 innings, 2 runs allowed against Miami

While Sears has impressed lately, his struggles at the Oakland Coliseum are concerning. His home ERA is more than double his overall season mark, suggesting vulnerability against a powerful Yankees lineup that has previous success against him.

Yankees Offensive Firepower

The Yankees’ offense continues to be led by MVP frontrunner Aaron Judge, who’s off to another historic start in 2025:

• .400 batting average, .491 on-base percentage

• 12 home runs, 34 RBIs, 34 runs scored

• Extra-base hit machine: 9 doubles, 3 triples

What makes this Yankees team particularly dangerous is the emerging depth throughout their lineup. New acquisition Paul Goldschmidt has seamlessly integrated into pinstripes (.341 average, .391 OBP), while unexpected contributors like Trent Grisham (.292 average, 10 home runs) and rookie Ben Rice (.254 average, 8 home runs) have transformed what was once a top-heavy offense.

The Yankees have particularly thrived against left-handed pitching this season, posting a collective .278 average and .822 OPS versus southpaws. Against Sears specifically, current Yankees hitters are 13-for-32 (.406) with 4 home runs.

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Athletics’ Surprising Offensive Output

Oakland’s unexpected early-season success can be largely attributed to their improved offensive production compared to recent years:

• Tyler Soderstrom: .290 average, 9 home runs, 25 RBIs

• Jacob Wilson: .357 average, 3 home runs, 21 RBIs

• Miguel Andujar: .320 average (former Yankee seeking revenge)

The Athletics have shown particular power at home this season, averaging 4.8 runs per game at the Coliseum versus 4.2 on the road. Their approach against left-handed pitching has been patient but effective, drawing the fourth-most walks in MLB against southpaws.

Despite these improvements, Oakland’s offense remains prone to strikeouts (9.2 per game) and struggles against elite velocity – precisely what Rodon brings to the table. With Rodon’s fastball averaging 96.8 mph over his last three starts, this presents a challenging matchup for Athletics hitters.

Betting Odds and Value Analysis

According to FanDuel, here are the current betting lines for Friday’s matchup:

• Run Line: Yankees -1.5 (-105) / Athletics +1.5 (-114)

• Moneyline: Yankees -158 / Athletics +134

• Total: Over 10 (-105) / Under 10 (-115)

The moderate juice on the Yankees suggests appropriate respect for an Oakland team that’s played above expectations. However, the pitching matchup and offensive firepower clearly favor New York, particularly with Rodon’s exceptional road performance this season.

The total of 10 runs appears slightly inflated given the starting pitchers’ recent form. While both offenses have shown power, this game has all the makings of a 5-3 or 6-2 type affair rather than a double-digit slugfest.

Final Yankees-Athletics Prediction

While the Athletics have surprised many with their competitive play this season, Friday’s matchup heavily favors the Yankees for several key reasons:

1. Carlos Rodon’s exceptional road splits and dominance against current Oakland hitters

2. JP Sears’ concerning home performance (5.00 ERA)

3. The Yankees’ historical success against Sears (.406 collective average)

4. Aaron Judge’s MVP-caliber production (.400 average, 12 home runs)

The line movement since opening suggests sharp money backing New York, further validating the value on the Yankees. While Oakland has shown fight this season, the pitching matchup and offensive disparities simply favor the visitors too heavily to ignore.

Best Bet: Yankees Moneyline (-158)

For those seeking greater value, the Yankees run line (-1.5 at -105) offers an attractive option given Rodon’s ability to work deep into games and limit scoring chances, paired with New York’s MLB-leading 18 wins by multiple runs this season.

Betting Insights

Why is Carlos Rodon so much better on the road this season?

Rodon has thrived away from Yankee Stadium primarily due to his improved fastball command. In road games, his first-pitch strike percentage jumps to 67.8% (compared to 58.2% at home), allowing him to work ahead in counts and utilize his devastating slider more effectively. The spacious dimensions of parks like Oakland Coliseum also benefit his pitching style.

Does Oakland have any significant edge in this matchup?

The Athletics’ best advantage comes in their bullpen, which ranks 7th in MLB with a collective 3.28 ERA compared to New York’s middle-of-the-pack 3.86 mark. If they can keep the game close through six innings, their relievers could provide an edge in late-game situations.

How has Aaron Judge maintained such an incredible batting average this season?

Judge’s approach has evolved in 2025, showing greater willingness to use all fields. His opposite-field hitting percentage has increased from 28.4% in 2024 to 36.2% this season, making defensive shifts less effective. He’s also decreased his chase rate on pitches outside the zone by 4.3%, leading to more favorable counts.

What historical trends favor the Yankees in this matchup?

Beyond the individual pitching matchups, the Yankees have won seven straight games at Oakland Coliseum dating back to 2023. They’ve also gone 12-4 in Carlos Rodon’s last 16 road starts and 8-2 in their last 10 games when installed as road favorites of -150 or greater.

Is the total of 10 runs appropriate for this game?

The total appears slightly inflated given both starting pitchers’ recent form. Over their combined last eight starts, Rodon and Sears have allowed just 10 earned runs across 54.2 innings (1.65 ERA). While both offenses have power potential, the starting pitching advantage suggests value on the under.

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