Tigers vs Rockies Game 1 Betting Preview: Detroit’s Hot Start Faces Colorado’s Rocky Season
AL Central Leaders Detroit Take On Struggling Colorado in Doubleheader Opener
The first game of Thursday’s doubleheader between the Detroit Tigers and Colorado Rockies presents a fascinating study in contrasts. The surging Tigers (22-13) sit atop the AL Central standings after taking three of four from the Angels in their most recent series. Meanwhile, the Rockies continue their disastrous start to the 2025 campaign, limping to a 6-28 record that anchors them firmly at the bottom of the NL West after dropping three of four to the Giants.
Weather conditions in Denver forced the postponement of Tuesday’s scheduled opener, resulting in Thursday’s doubleheader. This first game will feature a pitching matchup between Detroit’s Casey Mize, who has been excellent through the season’s opening weeks, and Colorado’s Kyle Freeland, who continues to search for his first win of 2025 amid significant struggles.
Let’s analyze the key factors that will determine the outcome of this afternoon contest at Coors Field and identify where the betting value lies.
Pitching Matchup: Mize’s Mastery vs. Freeland’s Frustrations
Casey Mize enters this contest with an impressive 5-1 record, sporting a 2.70 ERA and 1.09 WHIP across his six starts. The former first overall pick appears to be fulfilling his enormous potential this season, providing the Tigers with a legitimate frontline starter. In his previous outing against the Angels, Mize worked seven solid innings, permitting four runs on seven hits with four strikeouts to secure the victory.
One point of potential concern for Tigers backers: Mize’s road splits reveal a significant dropoff from his home performances. Away from Comerica Park, he’s posted a 3.93 ERA with opponents batting .224 against him – still respectable numbers, but not quite as dominant as his overall statistics.
The situation is considerably bleaker for Kyle Freeland, who remains winless at 0-4 with a bloated 5.70 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. Most alarming for Thursday’s matchup are Freeland’s horrific home splits – he’s 0-2 with an astronomical 8.53 ERA at Coors Field, with opponents teeing off at a .356 clip against him. Though his last start against the Giants was somewhat encouraging (6 IP, 3 ER), Freeland has allowed at least three runs in six of his seven starts this season.
Offensive Breakdown: Tigers’ Power vs. Rockies’ Inconsistency
Detroit’s offense has been surprisingly potent this season, featuring several players who are producing at impressive levels. Spencer Torkelson leads the charge with 10 home runs, 27 RBIs, and an encouraging .349 OBP despite a modest .234 batting average. Riley Greene (.274, 8 HR, 21 RBI) and Kerry Carpenter (.295, 8 HR, 19 RBI) provide additional power threats in the lineup.
The Tigers have also received significant contributions from Zach McKinstry (.291 BA, .375 OBP) and offseason acquisition Gleyber Torres (.291 BA, 4 HR, 15 RBI). This balanced attack could spell trouble for Freeland, particularly given his struggles at the hitter-friendly Coors Field.
Colorado’s offense has underperformed dramatically, helping explain their dismal record. Hunter Goodman represents their most consistent threat, batting .274 with 5 home runs and 17 RBIs. Jordan Beck (.260, 5 HR) has shown flashes of potential, but Brenton Doyle (.224) and Michael Toglia (.197) have struggled to maintain consistency. Perhaps most concerning is Ryan McMahon’s early-season slump – the veteran is hitting just .165, though he does have one of Colorado’s few career hits against Mize.
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Betting Lines and Value Analysis
According to FanDuel Sportsbook, the Tigers enter as -174 moneyline favorites with the run line set at Detroit -1.5 (-115). The Rockies are +146 underdogs with a +1.5 run line priced at -104. The total sits at 10 runs, with the under slightly favored at -115 compared to -105 for the over.
Given the pitching disparity and the teams’ contrasting trajectories, the Tigers appear well-positioned to take the opening game of this doubleheader. While laying -174 on the moneyline offers limited value, the run line at -1.5 (-115) presents an intriguing opportunity considering Freeland’s significant home struggles and Mize’s overall effectiveness.
The total of 10 runs warrants careful consideration. While Coors Field traditionally inflates scoring, Mize’s ability to limit damage combined with Colorado’s offensive limitations could keep this game under the threshold despite Freeland’s troubles.
Historical Matchup Notes and Trends
The head-to-head sample size between these pitchers and opposing batters is extremely limited. Rockies hitters have compiled just 12 career at-bats against Mize, though four of the five batters who have faced him have recorded hits. This includes Doyle (1-for-3 with an RBI) and McMahon (1-for-2 with a home run).
Tigers batters have even less experience against Freeland, going a combined 3-for-18 with one double. Gleyber Torres represents the lone bright spot with a 3-for-5 mark including a double against the Colorado southpaw.
One trend stands out dramatically: the Rockies are 1-6 in Freeland’s starts this season, while the Tigers have won five of Mize’s six outings.
Final Prediction and Best Bet
When analyzing all factors – pitching matchup, offensive capabilities, recent form, and situational context – the Tigers emerge as the clear choice. Casey Mize has demonstrated the ability to provide quality innings even when not at his absolute best, while Kyle Freeland’s home performance has been catastrophic this season.
Detroit’s balanced offensive attack should find success against a struggling pitcher in the most hitter-friendly environment in baseball. While the Rockies could certainly put up some runs against Mize at Coors Field, their inconsistent offense and poor overall performance level make it difficult to envision them keeping pace with the Tigers.
Best Bet: Tigers -1.5 (-115)
For those seeking additional value, a same-game parlay combining Tigers -1.5 with the Under 10 runs could provide an interesting longshot opportunity. The logic: Detroit wins comfortably against a struggling Freeland while Mize limits Colorado’s offense enough to keep the combined score under double digits.
Insights About This Tigers-Rockies Matchup
Does Coors Field’s elevation significantly impact Casey Mize’s pitching style?
Mize has limited experience pitching at Coors Field, but his repertoire may actually be less affected than most visitors. His heavy reliance on a splitter and slider – pitches that tend to maintain movement even in thin air – could help him navigate the challenging conditions better than pitchers who depend primarily on breaking balls that flatten at altitude.
Is Kyle Freeland’s home/road split unusual even for a Rockies pitcher?
Absolutely. While many Colorado pitchers struggle at Coors Field, Freeland’s 8.53 home ERA represents an extreme case. Earlier in his career, Freeland actually bucked the trend by pitching better at home than on the road during his breakout 2018 season, making his current home struggles particularly concerning for Rockies management.
Could weather conditions impact the betting total?
Denver’s weather can change rapidly, affecting game conditions significantly. Checking the forecast immediately before game time is advisable for total bettors. Cool temperatures can somewhat neutralize Coors Field’s run-scoring environment, while wind blowing out can exacerbate it.
How has Detroit’s bullpen performed in 2025, and should it concern Tigers backers?
The Tigers’ bullpen has been surprisingly effective this season, ranking in the top third of MLB in ERA. This strengthens the case for Detroit, as even if Mize delivers a quality start without dominating, the relief corps has demonstrated the ability to protect leads in the late innings.
Is there any situational angle that favors Colorado in this matchup?
The doubleheader context could potentially benefit the Rockies. Teams sometimes treat doubleheaders strategically, possibly resting key players in one game to maximize effectiveness in the other. If Detroit were to rest several regulars for the opener, it could create unexpected value for Colorado backers. Monitor lineup announcements closely before placing bets.
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