Pittsburgh Pirates vs St Louis Cardinals MLB Prediction: Cards to Capitalize on Pirates’ Offensive Struggles

Pirates Offensive Woes Continue Despite Skenes’ Solid Performance

The Pittsburgh Pirates find themselves trapped in an offensive rut that’s becoming increasingly concerning for manager Derek Shelton. Tuesday’s game perfectly encapsulated their season-long struggles, as another quality start from phenom Paul Skenes went to waste due to anemic run production. The Pirates mustered just a single run, ultimately falling by the narrowest of margins.

The numbers paint a bleak picture of Pittsburgh’s offensive capabilities in 2025. Ranking 28th in MLB with a meager 3.25 runs per game average, the Pirates have consistently failed to provide adequate support for their pitching staff. While third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes provided a small bright spot in Tuesday’s defeat (2-for-4 with an RBI), the collective offensive output has been well below league average.

Shortstop Oneil Cruz remains the lone consistent power threat, having accumulated eight home runs and 18 RBIs thus far. However, his production hasn’t been enough to elevate an offense that frequently goes cold for extended stretches. This troubling pattern puts enormous pressure on Pittsburgh’s pitching staff, which ranks 23rd in the league while surrendering 4.67 runs per game.

Mitch Keller Seeks Bounce-Back Performance After Rough Outing

Right-hander Mitch Keller (1-3, 4.48 ERA) takes the mound for Pittsburgh on Wednesday, desperately seeking to reverse both his personal fortunes and the team’s recent slide. 

Keller’s last start against the San Diego Padres was particularly troubling, as he surrendered eight hits and five earned runs across five laborious innings.

The advanced metrics suggest Keller has been somewhat unlucky, with his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) sitting at 3.94, notably lower than his ERA. However, his command has been inconsistent, allowing too many baserunners with a 1.38 WHIP. When facing a St. Louis lineup that’s been heating up recently, Keller will need to locate his fastball effectively and generate weak contact to avoid another difficult outing.

Keller’s road splits reveal additional concerns, as he’s pitched noticeably worse away from PNC Park this season. In three road starts, his ERA balloons to 5.31, compared to a more respectable 3.86 at home. This troubling pattern doesn’t bode well for a matchup at Busch Stadium, where the Cardinals have historically performed well against Pittsburgh.

Cardinals Building Momentum with Four Consecutive Victories

The St. Louis Cardinals enter Wednesday’s contest riding a four-game winning streak that has injected newfound confidence into Oliver Marmol’s squad. Tuesday’s victory exemplified the formula that’s been working lately: strong starting pitching complemented by just enough timely hitting.

Matthew Liberatore delivered a masterclass in the series opener, spinning seven innings of three-hit, one-run baseball that set the tone for a narrow victory. This performance continues a positive trend for a pitching staff that has increasingly found its rhythm after early-season inconsistency.

Offensively, the Cardinals present a much more balanced attack than their visitors, ranking 12th in MLB with 4.65 runs per game. Catcher Willson Contreras has been a catalyst for the lineup, contributing five home runs and 19 RBIs from the heart of the order. St. Louis boasts superior offensive metrics across the board, including team OPS, batting average, and run production – advantages they’ll look to leverage against Keller’s recent struggles.

Sonny Gray Aims to Rebound from Rare Rough Start

Veteran right-hander Sonny Gray (3-1, 4.12 ERA) gets the nod for St. Louis, looking to bounce back from an uncharacteristically poor outing against the New York Mets. In that start, Gray was tagged for nine hits and six earned runs across just 4.1 innings – a stark departure from his otherwise solid campaign.

Prior to the Mets debacle, Gray had been one of the Cardinals’ most reliable starters, posting quality starts in three consecutive outings. His strikeout-to-walk ratio of 3.8:1 demonstrates excellent command, and his home splits at Busch Stadium (2.83 ERA) suggest a comfort level that should serve him well against a struggling Pirates lineup.

Gray’s arsenal features a devastating breaking ball that generates whiffs at an impressive 31.7% rate. Against a Pirates lineup that ranks among the league leaders in strikeouts against breaking pitches (27.3%), this matchup appears tailor-made for a bounce-back performance from the Cardinals’ ace.

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Betting Trends Heavily Favor Cardinals at Busch Stadium

The historical betting patterns for this matchup overwhelmingly support St. Louis as the superior wagering option:

• Pittsburgh has dropped six consecutive games against National League opponents, highlighting their recent struggles within the division.

• The Cardinals have been remarkably consistent in midweek home games, winning their last eight Wednesday contests at Busch Stadium.

• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in seven straight games at Busch Stadium when facing National League opponents with losing records.

• St. Louis has covered the run line in seven of their last eight home games against Pittsburgh following a victory.

• The Cardinals have established early advantages by leading after five innings in three of their last four day games at Busch Stadium against NL opponents.

Total runs trends also provide valuable insight for Wednesday’s matchup:

• Six of the Cardinals’ last seven games against National League opponents have exceeded the total runs line.

• Each of Pittsburgh’s last three games as road underdogs have gone OVER the projected total.

• First-inning scoring patterns reveal an interesting dichotomy: the “Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs” market has hit in 11 of the last 12 Pirates-Cardinals games at Busch Stadium, but the “Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs” proposition has cashed in each of Pittsburgh’s last five games as road underdogs.

Expert Prediction: Cardinals to Extend Pirates’ Misery

When evaluating this matchup comprehensively, multiple factors point toward a St. Louis victory on Wednesday. While both starting pitchers are coming off subpar performances, Gray’s track record suggests his struggles against the Mets were an anomaly rather than a concerning trend. His 3-1 record and strong peripherals indicate a pitcher who should return to form, particularly against a Pirates lineup that ranks near the bottom of MLB in virtually every offensive category.

Conversely, Keller’s difficulties have been more persistent, and his road splits raise additional red flags for this Busch Stadium appearance. The Cardinals’ offense, while not explosive, has demonstrated better consistency and situational hitting than their visitors.

When combined with the overwhelming betting trends that favor St. Louis in this matchup, the Cardinals should not only win outright but cover the run line as well. Expect Gray to deliver at least six quality innings while the Cardinals’ lineup applies consistent pressure against Keller and the Pirates’ bullpen.

Final Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals (-145) to win and cover the -1.5 run line (+135) against the Pittsburgh Pirates, with the game going OVER the total runs line.

Key Insights About This Matchup

Why has Pittsburgh’s offense struggled so severely this season?

The Pirates’ offensive woes stem from multiple factors, including an MLB-high 26.8% strikeout rate, a bottom-five on-base percentage (.298), and the league’s lowest batting average with runners in scoring position (.217). Until they address these fundamental issues, their run production will continue to suffer.

Can Sonny Gray be trusted after his poor outing against the Mets?

Absolutely. Gray’s track record suggests his last start was an aberration rather than a concerning pattern. His 2.83 ERA at Busch Stadium this season demonstrates his comfort at home, and his advanced metrics (3.32 xFIP, 1.08 WHIP before the Mets game) indicate he’s still pitching at a high level. Expect a strong bounce-back performance.

What’s the most reliable betting angle for this game?

The Cardinals’ run line coverage against Pittsburgh at Busch Stadium has been remarkably consistent, hitting in 7 of their last 8 meetings following a win. With the Pirates’ offensive struggles and Keller’s road issues, this trend appears poised to continue, making St. Louis -1.5 (+135) the most attractive betting option.

How important is the first inning for betting purposes in this matchup?

First-inning betting presents an interesting contradiction in trends. While 11 of 12 previous Pirates-Cardinals games at Busch Stadium have featured scoreless first innings, Pittsburgh’s recent pattern as road underdogs suggests early scoring. This conflict makes the first-inning market particularly volatile and perhaps best avoided for this specific matchup.

Will the Pirates’ upcoming schedule offer relief for their offensive struggles?

Unfortunately for Pittsburgh, their upcoming schedule features several top-tier pitching staffs, including series against the Dodgers and Brewers following this Cardinals matchup. Their offensive metrics may continue to suffer unless significant adjustments are made to their approach at the plate, particularly with two strikes and runners in scoring position.

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