Pirates vs Cardinals Prediction: Will Rookie Phenom Skenes Lead Pittsburgh Past Struggling Cardinals?

Two Struggling Teams Square Off at Busch Stadium

The Pittsburgh Pirates travel to Busch Stadium for the second game of their series against the St. Louis Cardinals on Tuesday, May 6th. After the Cardinals secured a 6-3 comeback victory in Monday’s series opener, both teams look to establish consistency in what has been an up-and-down season for each franchise.

Tonight’s pitching matchup features Pirates’ highly-touted rookie Paul Skenes (3-3, 2.74 ERA) against Cardinals’ left-hander Matthew Liberatore (2-3, 3.44 ERA). With both teams hovering around the .500 mark, this National League Central division battle could have significant implications as we approach the quarter mark of the 2025 MLB season.

Let’s break down both teams’ recent performances, analyze the pitching matchup, and identify the most valuable betting opportunities for Tuesday’s contest.

Pirates Offensive Struggles Continue to Plague Team

The Pittsburgh Pirates’ offensive woes have become a recurring theme throughout the early portion of the 2025 campaign. Currently ranking 28th in MLB with a meager 3.26 runs per game, the Pirates’ bats have gone silent at critical moments. Monday’s game exemplified these struggles, as Pittsburgh failed to score after the 4th inning despite multiple opportunities.

Bryan Reynolds provided a glimpse of hope with a home run and two RBIs in the series opener, but the team’s inability to string together hits continues to hamper their success. 

Shortstop Oneil Cruz has been a bright spot in an otherwise dim offensive output, contributing eight home runs and 18 RBIs thus far.

On the mound, rookie sensation Paul Skenes has shown flashes of brilliance but has been susceptible to the long ball recently. In his last outing against the Cubs, Skenes surrendered three solo home runs among his five hits allowed over five innings. While his 2.74 ERA remains impressive, the young right-hander will need to keep the ball in the park against a Cardinals lineup that showed power potential in Monday’s matchup.

The Pirates’ pitching staff collectively ranks 22nd in MLB with a 4.63 runs allowed per game average, placing additional pressure on an already struggling offense to produce runs.

Cardinals Seeking Consistency After Monday’s Comeback

St. Louis entered this series having shown signs of life offensively, demonstrated by their four-run sixth inning that fueled Monday’s comeback victory. Jose Barreo led the charge with a home run and three RBIs, helping the Cardinals overcome an early deficit.

The Cardinals’ offense has been decidedly middle-of-the-pack, ranking 13th in MLB with 4.6 runs per game. Outfielder Lars Nootbaar has emerged as a key contributor with five home runs and 18 RBIs, though the team continues to search for consistent production from their lineup.

Starting pitcher Matthew Liberatore brings a respectable 3.44 ERA into Tuesday’s contest but has struggled with longevity in his outings. Against Cincinnati in his previous start, Liberatore lasted just three innings while allowing two runs on two hits. The left-hander will need to work deeper into the game to give the Cardinals bullpen some much-needed rest.

Like their opponents, St. Louis has struggled on the mound, ranking 23rd in MLB with 4.66 runs allowed per game. This pitching matchup could ultimately come down to which starter can limit damage and work efficiently through the middle innings.

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Critical Betting Trends Favor Pittsburgh

When analyzing betting trends for both teams, several patterns emerge that point toward potential value opportunities:

• The Pirates have won nine of their last ten games as favorites following a road loss, suggesting resilience after defeats.

• Conversely, the Cardinals have lost nine of their last ten games as underdogs when playing on consecutive days.

• The Cardinals have covered the run line in an impressive 16 of their last 18 games as underdogs specifically against Pittsburgh, presenting an interesting contradiction.

• Pittsburgh has failed to cover the run line in their last six games at Busch Stadium against National League opponents with losing records.

• The favorites have covered the run line in three of Pittsburgh’s last four games overall.

These conflicting trends present an intriguing betting puzzle, but the Pirates’ tendency to bounce back after losses as favorites appears to be the most relevant trend for Tuesday’s matchup.

Prediction: Pirates’ Pitching Edge Delivers Victory

After analyzing both teams’ recent performances, pitching matchups, and relevant betting trends, the Pittsburgh Pirates represent the stronger betting value for Tuesday’s contest. 

Despite their offensive struggles, the Pirates hold a significant advantage in the pitching matchup with Skenes on the mound.

The rookie phenom should benefit from facing a Cardinals lineup that lacks the power potential of the Cubs team that troubled him in his previous outing. While St. Louis did produce six runs on Monday, their offense has been inconsistent throughout the season.

Liberatore has shown flashes but lacks the dominance that Skenes brings to the mound. Expect a low-scoring affair with Pittsburgh’s superior pitching making the difference in the final outcome.

Final Prediction: Pirates win 4-2, covering the run line as favorites. The game stays UNDER the total.

Key Insights

Why is Paul Skenes considered such a difference-maker for the Pirates?

Skenes brings elite velocity and a devastating splitter that generates both swings and misses and weak contact. Despite allowing three home runs in his last start, his 2.74 ERA and impressive strikeout numbers make him one of the most promising rookie pitchers in baseball.

Has Matthew Liberatore shown improvement this season compared to previous years?

Yes, Liberatore’s 3.44 ERA represents significant improvement from previous seasons. The former first-round pick has refined his breaking pitches and improved his command, though he still struggles with pitch efficiency and working deep into games.

How significant is the Cardinals’ home-field advantage at Busch Stadium?

Historically, Busch Stadium has provided the Cardinals with one of the stronger home-field advantages in baseball. However, in 2025, St. Louis has been mediocre at home, negating much of this traditional advantage and making them vulnerable against teams with superior pitching.

What’s behind the Pirates’ offensive struggles this season?

Pittsburgh’s lineup lacks depth beyond stars like Reynolds and Cruz. Their bottom third of the order has produced some of the worst numbers in baseball, creating a significant drop-off that allows opposing pitchers to navigate through innings without facing consistent threats.

Should bettors be concerned about the contradicting betting trends in this matchup?

While the Cardinals have historically performed well against the spread versus Pittsburgh, current form is more relevant. The Pirates’ tendency to rebound after losses as favorites, combined with their pitching advantage, outweighs historical trends that may no longer reflect the current composition of these teams.

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