The Leaders of the AL and NL Go Head-To-Head | Braves vs Rays | OSB
Atlanta Braves at Tampa Bay Rays: Analysis, Prediction, and Betting Tips
Sam Batz
When: Friday, July 7th at 6:40 PM EST
Where: Tropicana Field
Watch On: Apple TV+
Match Predictor (Win-Probability): Atlanta Braves (42.2%); Tampa Bay Rays (57.8%)
The two best teams in the MLB are gearing up for their first and only series of the regular season. It’s a 3-game series, with the opening matchup happening Friday, July 7th. The Braves and Rays have not played since 2021, and have only played 39 games over 25 years, starting in 1998. Atlanta leads the all-time series 24-15 (61.5%) over Tampa Bay, but this year’s series is promising to be the best one yet.
The Atlanta Braves (58-28; ML -120)
The Atlanta Braves are the hottest team in the MLB right now. They are 9-1 in their last 10 games, and 18-2 in their last 20. Overall, the Braves are 58-28 (67.4%), the best record in baseball, and rank in the top-3 of nearly every statistical metric. They are the favorites to win the World Series, priced at +350, and have nearly guaranteed themselves a spot in the postseason just halfway through the season. The Braves are sending a league-high 8 players to the All-Star game in Seattle (Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, Orlando Arcia, Bryce Elder, Sean Murphy, Matt Olson, Austin Riley, and Spencer Strider), tying the record for the most selections by a National League team.
The Tampa Bay Rays (57-32; ML -105)
The Tampa Bay Rays are this year’s breakout team, as not many people expected them to be leading the American League halfway through the season. With a 57-32 (64.0%) record, the Rays lead the AL East and the American League by 5.0 games, and trail the Atlanta Braves by just 2.5 games in the overall MLB standings. However, after a blistering 22-6 (78.6%) start in the first month of the season, the Rays have begun to slow down, going 17-10 (62.9%) in June, and were 4-6 in their last 10 games. They’ve lost 4 in a row, and could make it 5 if they lose to the Phillies tonight. Despite the recent struggles, the Rays remain the 2nd-best team in the MLB, and are sending 4 players (Randy Arozarena, Yandy Diaz, Shane McClanahan, and Wander Franco) to this year’s All-Star game.
Braves vs. Rays Opening Odds
Team | Runline | Total (O/U) | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
Atlanta Braves | -1.5 (+137) | Ov 7.5 (-120) | -120 |
Tampa Bay Rays | +1.5 (-196) | Un 7.5 (-105) | -105 |
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Braves vs. Rays: Season Stats
Atlanta Braves (58-28) .674 487 (3rd) 5.66 340 (2nd) 3.95 +147 809 (2nd) .274 (2nd) 166 (1st) 470 (3rd) 30-15 (66.7%) 28-13 (68.3%) | Stat Type Pct. Total Runs Runs Per Game Total Runs Against Runs Against Per Game Run Differential Hits Bat Avg. Homeruns RBIs Home (Win-rate) Away (Win-rate) | Tampa Bay Rays (57-32) .640 493 (2nd) 5.54 342 (3rd) 3.84 +151 785 (4th) .262 (4th) 133 (3rd) 471 (2nd) 34-12 (73.9%) 23-20 (53.5%) |
Braves vs. Rays: Betting Trends
Atlanta Braves
- 44-42 record ATS
- 22-19 record ATS on the ROAD
- 12-20 record ATS versus the AL this season
- 47-36-3 O/U record this season
- 4-6 O/U record in the last 10 games
- 53-27 as FAVORITES
- 24-12 as FAVORITES on the ROAD
Tampa Bay Rays
- 49-40 record ATS
- 27-19 record ATS at HOME
- 15-14 record ATS versus the NL this season
- 50-35-4 O/U record this season
- 6-4 O/U record in the last 10 games
- 6-11 as UNDERDOGS
- 2-3 as UNDERDOGS at HOME
Braves vs. Rays: Starting Pitcher Comparison
Atlanta Braves 8-6 3.57 1.44 90.2 91 105 40 9 | Stat Type (Probable) Pitcher W-L ERA WHIP IP H K BB HR | Tampa Bay Rays 2-2 4.50 1.33 36.0 33 56 15 6 |
Braves vs. Rays Prediction
Take the Atlanta Braves to beat the Tampa Bay Rays in the opening game of the series on July 7th. Tampa has been phenomenal at home, winning 73.9% of their games at Tropicana Field, but the Braves are cooking with fire, having lost just twice in their last 20 games. It will be a close game, as these are the No. 1 and No. 2 teams in the MLB, but I like the Braves in this one because they average more hits per game than the Rays, lead the league in home runs, and win 66.7% of the time as favorites on the road.
Prediction: Atlanta Braves Moneyline (-120)
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