Pittsburgh’s Hot Start Has Come To An End | Pirates vs Dodgers | OSB
Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers: Analysis, Prediction, and Betting Tips
Sam Batz
When: Thursday, July 6th at 7:10 PM PST
Where: Dodger Stadium
Watch On: AT&T SportsNet (Pittsburgh)/Spectrum SportsNet/MLB Extra Innings
Match Predictor (Win-Probability): Pittsburgh Pirates (31.4%); Los Angeles Dodgers (68.6%)
The MLB season is in full swing, and on Thursday, July 6th the Pirates of Pittsburgh will take on the LA Dodgers in the City of Angels. Thursday’s matchup will mark the 2,187th all-time meeting (regular and postseason) between the two NL franchises. The Dodgers lead the regular season series 1157-1014 (53.3%), but in their last 10 matchups, LA has gone 3-7 against the Pirates. Last year, Pittsburgh went 5-1 against the Dodgers, and are 3-2 against LA this year, yet the Pirates enter Thursday’s matchup as underdogs (Priced at +200) with just a 31.4% chance of victory.
The Pittsburgh Pirates (40-45; +200)
After a blistering start to the season, going 19-9 (67.9%) in April, the spoils of the Pittsburgh Pirates have diminished. They followed up their inspired opening month with an 8-18 (30.8%) record in May, and then an 11-15 (42.3%) record in June. Overall, the Pirates are now 40-45 (47.1%), putting them in 3rd-place in the NL Central, 9th-place in the National League, and 20th in the MLB. The Pirates are 5-5 in their last 10 games, and put up 9 runs in their win over the Dodgers on Tuesday, but despite that favorable result, Pittsburgh is not expected to beat LA in their next two meetings.
The All-Star break is right around the corner, and the Pirates are sending 2 players, both pitchers, to Seattle. Breakout star Mitch Keller is making his first All-Star appearance and will be joined by teammate David Bednar, who was selected as a replacement for the injured Clayton Kershaw.
The Los Angeles Dodgers (47-38; -278)
The LA Dodgers are coming off their worst month of the season thus far. After starting the year 33-22 (60.0%) through the first two months, the Dodgers fell to 12-12 (50.0%) in June, and have won just once in July, bringing their overall record to 47-38 (55.3%). The Dodgers are 2nd in the NL West, 4th in the National League, and 9th in the MLB (7 games up on the Pirates). LA ranks 2nd in total home runs (135) and 4th in total runs (462), but they can’t keep their opponents off the scoring sheet, allowing the 20th-fewest runs against (403). Thankfully for the Dodgers they face a Pittsburgh side allowing a similar number of runs against (402), and should be able to rely on their superior offense to get them across the finish line in front of the Pirates.
The Dodgers are loaded with talent and will be sending 5 players to the All-Star game in Seattle, the 3rd-most of any team. Those players include: Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, J.D. Martinez, Will Smith, and Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw is injured and will miss the All-Star game, but Betts, Freeman, and Martinez are expected to start, while Smith was a player-elected pick.
Pirates vs. Dodgers Opening Odds
Team | Runline | Total (O/U) | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
Pittsburgh Pirates | +1.5 (+102) | Ov 8.5 (-111) | +200 |
Los Angeles Dodgers | -1.5 (-143) | Un 8.5 (-125) | -278 |
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Pirates vs. Dodgers: Season Stats
Pittsburgh Pirates (40-45) .471 364 (23rd) 4.28 402 (19th) 4.73 -38 678 (22nd) .242 (20th) 78 (25th) 346 (24th) 22-21 (51.2%) 18-24 (42.9%) | Stat Type Pct. Total Runs Runs Per Game Total Runs Against Runs Against Per Game Run Differential Hits Bat Avg. Homeruns RBIs Home (Win-rate) Away (Win-rate) | Los Angeles Dodgers (47-38) .553 462 (4th) 5.44 403 (20th) 4.74 +59 699 (20th) .243 (19th) 135 (2nd) 447 (4th) 25-16 (60.9%) 22-22 (50.0%) |
Pirates vs. Dodgers: Betting Trends
Pittsburgh Pirates
- 40-45 record ATS
- 21-21 record ATS on the ROAD
- 29-27 record ATS versus the NL this season
- 42-39-4 O/U record this season
- 6-3-1 O/U record in the last 10 games
- 28-38 as UNDERDOGS
- 14-22 as UNDERDOGS on the ROAD
Los Angeles Dodgers
- 43-42 record ATS
- 20-21 record ATS at HOME
- 35-30 record ATS versus the NL this season
- 48-32-5 O/U record this season
- 8-2 O/U record in the last 10 games
- 43-32 as FAVORITES
- 25-14 as FAVORITES at HOME
Pirates vs. Dodgers: Starting Pitcher Comparison
Pittsburgh Pirates 3-9 4.61 1.43 93.2 96 81 38 8 | Stat Type (Probable) Pitcher W-L ERA WHIP IP H K BB HR | Los Angeles Dodgers 5-5 4.94 1.23 58.1 59 55 13 14 |
Pirates vs. Dodgers Prediction
Take the LA Dodgers to beat the Pirates on Thursday, July 6th. With 98 more runs scored than Pittsburgh, the Dodgers should clean up at the plate. Averaging 9.2 hits and 1.6 home runs in the last 10 games, LA certainly has the edge when it comes to batting. But it will be a close game, as Pittsburgh averaged 9.0 hits and 0.9 home runs in their last 10, but often struggle on the road (win-rate 42.9%), which leads me to believe the Dodgers are the safer pick for Thursday’s matchup.
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers Moneyline (-278)
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