New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays: Prediction and Betting Tips

By Sam Batz

The MLB season continues on Friday, May 5th with an enticing AL East divisional matchup between the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays (6:40 PM EST, Bally Sports/YES Network/MLB Extra Innings). The Tampa Bay Rays remain atop the MLB standings, while the Yankees reside at the bottom of the division. The Rays are dominating the league and -1.5 run favorites to beat New York on Friday. The Yankees are +1.5 run underdogs, and like most teams, will struggle to keep Tampa off the scoreboard. It’s the first meeting of the season between New York and Tampa Bay, and while the Yankees typically have the edge over the Rays, this year the tables have turned. 

Away Team: New York Yankees (+1.5; ML +155)

The New York Yankees are 17-15 (53.1%), 9 games behind Tampa Bay. The Yankees are 5th in the AL East, 8th in the American League, and 14th in the MLB. New York went 4-6 in their last 10 games, but they are coming off back-to-back wins over the Cleveland Guardians, scoring 4 runs in both victories. The Yankees come in at No. 12 in ESPN’s most recent Power Rankings, and will look to make May a winning month. Injuries have hampered the Yankees, most notably Aaron Judge, who is on a 10-day IL due to a hip injury, and will miss the entire series against Tampa Bay.   

Home Team: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5; ML -200)

The Tampa Bay Rays are the top-dogs in the MLB. They have the best record at 26-6 (81.3%) and lead the AL East, American League, and MLB as the undisputed No. 1 team in baseball. The Rays have the most runs (210), RBIs (201), home runs (67), and the best batting average (.278) in the league. While Tampa’s offense has been off-the-charts impressive, they also have the fewest runs allowed (96) and the best team ERA (2.87). The Rays are priced at -135 (1st) to win the AL East, +325 (1st) to win the American League, and +750 (T-3rd) to win the World Series. 

Yankees vs. Rays Opening Odds

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Yankees vs. Rays: Season Stats

Yankees vs. Rays: Betting Trends

New York Yankees

• 15-17 record ATS
• 6-7 record ATS on the road
• 11-15 record ATS versus the AL
• 10-21-1 O/U record
• 3-6-1 O/U record in the last 10 games
• 1-6 as UNDERDOGS 
• 0-5 as UNDERDOGS on the road

Tampa Bay Rays

• 21-11 record ATS
• 13-6 record ATS at home
• 14-9 record ATS versus the AL
• 17-12-3 O/U record
• 5-5 O/U record in the last 10 games
• 26-5 as FAVORITES
• 17-2 as FAVORITES at home

Yankees vs. Rays: Starting Pitcher Comparison

Yankees vs. Rays Prediction

Take Tampa Bay to beat the Yankees on Friday. The Rays are the best team in baseball, and with all of the Yankee injuries, especially to their bullpen, I have to go with Tampa Bay. ESPN Analytics is giving the Rays a 80.2% chance to beat New York, who will be without Aaron Judge, and averaged just 3.3 runs per game in their last 10 matchups. The Yankees also allowed 50 runs (5 runs per game) in their last 10, while the Rays averaged 6.1 runs and gave up just 3.5 per game to their opponents in their last 10 games. Tampa Bay’s performance this year has been nothing short of spectacular, and at home, where the Rays win 89.5% of the time, the New York Yankees will be hard pressed to beat the best team in baseball. 

Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline (-200)

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