It’s Been a Rough Month In Tampa | Rays vs Astros | OSB
Tampa Bay Rays at Houston Astros: Analysis, Betting Tips, and Prediction
Sam Batz
When: Friday, July 28th at 8:10 PM EST
Where: Minute Maid Park
Watch On: Bally Sports/MLB Extra Innings
Match Predictor (Win-Probability): Tampa Bay Rays (54.1%); Houston Astros (45.9%)
The Tampa Bay Rays travel to Houston to take on the Astros for their second series of the season. Houston took the first series, going 2-1 against the Rays, averaging 3.0 runs per game and shutting out Tampa twice. These are two of the best teams in baseball, and although the Rays have a slightly better record, this series should be a thriller.
The Tampa Bay Rays (62-43; -115)
The Tampa Bay Rays had a tremendous start to the season, but after going 2-8 in their last 10 games, the Rays have fallen out of first place in the AL East, and are now 1.5 games behind the Baltimore Orioles. The Rays average 5.19 runs on the season, but recorded an uncharacteristic 2.9 runs per game in their last 10, and have scored 5 or more runs in just 2 games coming back from the All-Star break. It’s been a bad month for the Rays, who are 5-15 (25%) in July, but their incredible first half of the season has buoyed them enough to stay in the top-3 of the American League, and the Rays still allow the fewest runs per game in the MLB.
The Houston Astros (58-45; -105)
The Houston Astros are 58-45 (56.3%), putting them 2.0 games back on the division leading Texas Rangers. Houston is 2nd in the AL West, 3rd in the American League (1 game behind the Rays), and are 6th in the MLB. The Astros are the reigning World Series champions, and although they are not favored to repeat, they are on track to make the playoffs for the 7th consecutive season. Yordan Alvarez is back in the lineup for the Astros, and they are 33-25 (56.9%) with the 2x All-Star on the field. Houston is technically the underdog in this one, but the odds are very close, and I expect this one to be decided in the final innings.
Rays vs. Astros Odds
Team | Runline | Total (O/U) | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
Tampa Bay Rays | -1.5 | Ov 8.5 (-115) | -115 |
Houston Astros | +1.5 | Un 8.5 (-105) | -105 |
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Rays vs. Astros: Season Stats
Tampa Bay Rays (62-43) .590 545 (4th) 5.19 404 (1st) 3.85 +141 896 (10th) .255 (11th) 150 (4th) 522 (4th) 37-19 (66.1%) 25-24 (51.0%) | Stat Type Pct. Total Runs Runs Per Game Total Runs Against Runs Against Per Game Run Differential Hits Bat Avg. Homeruns RBIs Home (Win-rate) Away (Win-rate) | Houston Astros (58-45) .563 484 (12th) 4.7 435 (9th) 4.22 +49 864 (16th) .248 (17th) 129 (10th) 467 (12th) 27-23 (54.0%) 31-22 (58.5%) |
Rays vs. Astros: Betting Trends
Tampa Bay Rays
- 55-50 record ATS
- 24-25 record ATS on the ROAD
- 37-33 record ATS versus the AL this season
- 54-47-4 O/U record this season
- 3-7 O/U record in the last 10 games
- 57-31 as FAVORITES
- 22-14 as FAVORITES on the ROAD
Houston Astros
- 52-51 record ATS
- 21-29 record ATS at HOME
- 32-34 record ATS versus the AL this season
- 50-51-2 O/U record this season
- 4-6 O/U record in the last 10 games
- 19-16 as UNDERDOGS
- 4-5 as UNDERDOGS at HOME
Rays vs. Astros: Starting Pitcher Comparison
Tampa Bay Rays 11-1 2.89 1.16 106.0 82 112 41 12 | Stat Type (Probable) Pitcher W-L ERA WHIP IP H K BB HR | Houston Astros 7-2 4.32 1.22 102.0 91 94 33 14 |
Rays vs. Astros Prediction
Many are saying this one is a toss up, so I’m going with the under, instead of trying to determine a winner. Both the Astors and Rays are going with two top pitchers, and I expect them, and their respective defenses, to shine on Friday. Shane McClanahan, Tampa Bay’s starter, has only lost 1 game in 12 starts, while Houston’s starter, Cristian Javier, is an equally impressive 7-2. On the season, the Rays have allowed less than 4 runs per game (3.85), and in their last 10, Tampa went over the run total just 3 times. I expect another low scoring game on Friday, so go with the under in this one.
Prediction: Under 8.5 Total Runs
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