Boston’s Turbulent Season Continues | Marlins vs Red Sox | OSB
Tampa Bays Rays at Arizona Diamondbacks: Analysis, Prediction, and Betting Tips
Sam Batz
When: Wednesday, June 28th at 7:10 PM EST
Where: Fenway Park, Boston, Massachusetts
Watch On: Bally Sports/NESN/MLB Extra Innings
Match Predictor (Win-Probability): Miami Marlins (44.0%); Boston Red Sox (56.0%)
The Boston Red Sox are gearing up to host the Miami Marlins for a 3-game series from June 27th to June 29th, but we are going to focus on Wednesday’s matchup on the 28th. Boston and Miami played their first ever matchup on June, 30th 1997, which resulted in a 5-8 win for the Marlins. However, since then the Red Sox have dominated, as Boston leads the series 31-13 (70.5%) over Miami. Wednesday’s matchup will mark the 46th meeting between the Red Sox and Marlins, and is just two days away from their 26th year reunion.
The Miami Marlins (45-34)
In 31 seasons (1993-2023), the Miami Marlins have just 3 playoffs appearances. On the bright side, they have 2 World Series titles, but ever since they won the championship in 2003, Miami has qualified for the postseason one time. As a result of their historic struggles, the Marlins are often overlooked, ignored, or forgotten entirely, but this season is different. Miami has a real shot to reach the playoffs, and could even make a deep run into the postseason.
At 45-34 (57.0%), the Marlins are 2nd in the NL East, 3rd in the National League, and 6th in the MLB. They are projected to finish 85-77 (52.5%), giving them a 48% chance to be in the playoffs. It’s certainly no guarantee, but they are playing better than they have in years, and could very well be a contender come October.
The Boston Red Sox (40-39)
The Boston Red Sox are one of the oldest and most storied franchises in the MLB. After 123 seasons (1901-2023), the Red Sox have 9 titles and have reached the postseason 25 times. Fans expect Boston to make the playoffs, but at 40-39 (50.6%) they are last in the AL East, 8th in the American League, and 16th in the MLB. Boston competes in the toughest division in all of baseball, the AL East, which is currently the only division where all 5 teams are above .500. The Sox are not a bad team, but because of their division, they have just a 35% chance to reach the postseason.
However, against Miami, Boston has a 56.0% win-probability. The Sox have struggled with consistency due to their poor defense. They give up nearly 5 runs per game, but against a Marlins offense averaging just 4.0 runs this season, Boston has a good chance to win this series.
Marlins vs. Red Sox Odds
Team | Runline | Total (O/U) | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
Miami Marlins | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Boston red Sox | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Check back later for the latest spread, runline, and O/U totals.
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Marlins vs. Red Sox: Season Stats
Miami Marlins (45-34) .570 316 (24th) 4.00 331 (11th) 4.19 -15 694 (9th) .261 (7th) 72 (T-25th) 299 (25th) 25-16 (60.9%) 20-18 (52.6%) | Stat Type Pct. Total Runs Runs Per Game Total Runs Against Runs Against Per Game Run Differential Hits Bat Avg. Homeruns RBIs Home (Win-rate) Away (Win-rate) | Boston Red Sox (40-39) .506 394 (7th) 4.99 373 (T-23rd) 4.72 +21 703 (7th) .260 (8th) 83 (20th) 377 (8th) 21-18 (53.8%) 19-21 (47.5%) |
Marlins vs. Red Sox: Betting Trends
Miami Marlins
- 38-41 record ATS
- 20-18 record ATS on the ROAD
- 17-7 record ATS versus the AL this season
- 35-42-2 O/U record this season
- 4-6 O/U record in the last 10 games
- 22-23 as UNDERDOGS
- 15-14 as UNDERDOGS on the ROAD
Boston Red Sox
- 40-39 record ATS
- 20-19 record ATS at HOME
- 11-15 record ATS versus the NL this season
- 42-35-2 O/U record this season
- 5-5 O/U record in the last 10 games
- 19-16 as FAVORITES
- 12-10 as FAVORITES at HOME
Marlins vs. Red Sox: Starting Pitcher Comparison
Miami Marlins 3-2 3.64 1.15 76.2 74 90 14 9 | Stat Type (Probable) Pitcher W-L ERA WHIP IP H K BB HR | Boston Red Sox Undecided 0-0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 |
Marlins vs. Red Sox Prediction
Take the Red Sox to beat the Marlins on Wednesday, June 28th. Miami is a much improved side, and with Luis Arraez in the batting order, who has hovered around a .400 batting average all season, the Marlins could make it interesting against a low-level Boston defense. But as a team, the Sox are the better offense. Averaging nearly 1 more run per game than the Marlins, Boston will take care of business Wednesday night in Fenway.
Prediction: Boston Red Sox Win
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