Boston’s Hit Train Keeps On Rolling | Red Sox vs Twins | OSB
Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers: Analysis, Prediction, and Betting Tips
Sam Batz
The MLB season continues on Thursday, June 22nd with a matchup between the Boston Red Sox and the Minnesota Twins (1:10 PM EST, Bally Sports/NESN/MLB Extra Innings). The Red Sox are coming off back-to-back wins over Minnesota, scoring 19 total runs over the two games. The Twins scored 7 total runs, and will look to regain their footing on Wednesday and Thursday against Boston. They two AL rivals play the final game of their series on the 22nd, and neither team can afford to lose. The Red Sox are fighting for their lives in the highly competitive AL East, while the Twins are looking to stay atop the standings in the AL Central.
The Boston Red Sox (+1.5; ML +100)
The Red Sox are 39-35 (52.7%) but are last place in the AL east, 11.5 games behind the division leading Tampa Bay Rays. Boston is 5th in the AL East, 8th in the American League, and 14th in the MLB. According to ESPN’s MLB Power Rankings, the Sox are just out of the top-10 at No. 13, despite their winning record. Boston averages 5.16 runs, 9.08 hits, and 4.76 runs allowed per game. They have a better batting average (.265), more RBIs (366), and a better run differential (+30) than Minnesota, yet Boston enters Thursday’s matchup as +1.5 run underdogs with just a 43.7% chance to beat the Twins.
The Minnesota Twins (-1.5; ML -120)
The Minnesota Twins rank No. 10 on ESPN’s MLB Power Rankings, and with a 56.3% win probability, they are expected to beat the Red Sox in the final matchup of their 4-game series. In spite of being a -1.5 run favorite against Boston, the Twins have a losing record at 36-38 (48.6%), but are leading the AL Central. It’s a rather weak division, as none of Minnesota’s divisional pursuers have a record above .500, which is why the Twins have a 52% chance to make the playoffs, despite being 10th in the American League and 18th in the MLB. Minnesota is 4-6 in their last 10 games, and are 8-12 against Boston in their last 20 meetings. The Twins’ saving grace is their defense, averaging just 3.98 runs allowed per game, which they will rely upon to get past the Red Sox in the next two days.
Red Sox vs. Twins Odds
Team | Runline | Total (O/U) | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
Boston Red Sox | +1.5 (-200) | Ov 8.5 (-110) | +100 |
Minnesota Twins | -1.5 (+165) | Un 8.5 (-110) | -120 |
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Red Sox vs. Twins: Season Stats
Boston Red Sox (39-35) .527 382 (6th) 352 (21st) +30 672 (5th) .265 (3rd) 80 (19th) 366 (6th) 21-18 (53.9%) 18-17 (51.4%) | Stat Type Pct. Total Runs Total Runs Against Run Differential Hits Bat Avg. Homeruns RBI Home (Win-rate) Away (Win-rate) | Minnesota Twins (36-38) .486 317 (19th) 295 (T-4th) +22 573 (24th) .231 (24th) 84 (T-8th) 302 (19th) 21-19 (52.5%) 15-19 (44.1%) |
Red Sox vs. Twins: Betting Trends
Boston Red Sox
- 38-36 record ATS
- 18-17 record ATS on the ROAD
- 27-21 record ATS versus the AL this season
- 40-32-2 O/U record this season
- 4-6 O/U record in their last 10 games
- 22-23 as UNDERDOGS
- 12-14 as UNDERDOGS on the ROAD
Minnesota Twins
- 35-39 record ATS
- 17-23 record ATS at HOME
- 25-29 record ATS versus the AL this season
- 32-37-5 O/U record this season
- 7-2-1 O/U record in their last 10 games
- 27-22 as FAVORITES
- 20-14 as FAVORITES at HOME
Red Sox vs. Twins: Starting Pitcher Comparison
Boston Red Sox Undecided 0-0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 | Stat Type (Probable) Pitcher W-L ERA WHIP IP H K BB HR | Minnesota Twins 7-4 3.30 0.97 84.2 67 91 15 8 |
Red Sox vs. Twins Prediction
Take the Twins to beat the Red Sox on Thursday, June 22nd. The Sox smoked the Twins in the first two games of their current series, but with Joe Ryan on the mound, Minnesota will bounce back on Thursday. Ryan has a WHIP (Walks Plus Hits Per Inning Pitched) of 0.97, which ranks 2nd amongst all pitchers in the MLB. The Red Sox know how to hit the ball, and so far Minnesota hasn’t been able to keep up, but I anticipate a turning of the tide in their next two matchups. The Twins will rely heavily on Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton to get them over their offensive slump, while the Sox will look to Alex Verdugo (84 hits, 7th in MLB) to keep the hit train rolling, but because of Boston’s inconsistency, I like the Twins on Thursday.
Prediction: Minnesota Twins Moneyline (-120)
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