Baltimore Looks to Extend Win Streak After All-Star Break | Marlins vs Orioles | OSB
Miami Marlins at Baltimore Orioles: Analysis, Prediction, and Betting Tips
Sam Batz
When: Friday, July 14th at 7:05 PM EST
Where: Oriole Park
Watch On: Bally Sports Florida/Mid-Atlantic Sports Net/MLB Extra Innings
Match Predictor (Win-Probability): Miami Marlins (42.1%); Baltimore Orioles (57.9%)
The MLB regular season is back after the midsummer break known only as the All-Star game. The break provides a nice respite from the toil of the regular season, but now that we are back, things are going to start heating up quickly. The Miami Marlins will travel to Baltimore to take on the Orioles in a cross-league matchup between two of the best teams in baseball. The odds favor Baltimore at -120, while the Marlins are the underdogs priced at +100, but the game should be a closely fought contest between two evenly matched sides.
The Miami Marlins (53-39; +100)
The Miami Marlins are 53-39 (57.6%), putting them in 2nd place in the NL East, 2nd place in the National League, and 4th place in the MLB. Disregarding the shortened 2020 season due to the CoronaVirus Pandemic, the Miami Marlins have not finished with a winning record since 2009, and have not made the playoffs, again barring the 2020 season, since 2003 when they won the World Series. This year however, Miami has turned the franchise around, and is fully expected to reach the postseason with a winning record. Before the All-Star break, the Marlins were 5-5 in their last 10 games, averaging 5.2 runs, 10.1 hits, and 1.0 home run per game over that same stretch. Miami is 28-10 against Baltimore all-time, but the two sides have not faced each other in two years.
The Baltimore Orioles (54-35; -120)
The Baltimore Orioles are 54-35 (60.7%), 2.5 games ahead of Miami in the overall MLB standings. The Orioles are 2nd in the AL East, 2nd in the American League, and 3rd in the MLB. The Orioles sent 4 players to the All-Star game compared to Miami’s 2, which may not mean much, but it does speak to the sheer talent of the Orioles lineup. Before the All-Star break, Baltimore was 6-4 in their last 10 games, averaging 5.4 runs, 9.0 hits, 1.2 home runs. Historically, the Orioles have struggled against the Miami Marlins with a win-rate of 26.3%, but this Baltimore team is out to prove they are a different animal this season.
Marlins vs. Orioles Odds
Team | Runline | Total (O/U) | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
Miami Marlins | +1.5 (-210) | Ov 8.5 (-105) | +100 |
Baltimore Orioles | -1.5 (+175) | Un 8.5 (-115) | -120 |
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Marlins vs. Orioles: Season Stats
Miami Marlins (53-39) .576 386 (21st) 4.2 391 (13th) 4.25 -5 828 (2nd) .265 (3rd) 87 (23rd) 366 (23rd) 30-15 (66.7%) 23-21 (52.3%) | Stat Type Pct. Total Runs Runs Per Game Total Runs Against Runs Against Per Game Run Differential Hits Bat Avg. Homeruns RBIs Home (Win-rate) Away (Win-rate) | Baltimore Orioles (54-35) .607 442 (9th) 4.97 394 (15th) 4.43 +48 765 (15th) .254 (14th) 107 (12th) 429 (7th) 26-18 (59.1%) 28-17 (62.2%) |
Marlins vs. Orioles: Betting Trends
Miami Marlins
- 45-47 record ATS
- 23-21 record ATS on the ROAD
- 20-7 record ATS versus the AL this season
- 43-47-2 O/U record this season
- 7-3 O/U record in the last 10 games
- 24-27 as UNDERDOGS
- 17-17 as UNDERDOGS on the ROAD
Baltimore Orioles
- 54-35 record ATS
- 21-23 record ATS at HOME
- 13-7 record ATS versus the NL this season
- 45-37-7 O/U record this season
- 5-3-2 O/U record in the last 10 games
- 32-14 as FAVORITES
- 19-10 as FAVORITES at HOME
Marlins vs. Orioles: Starting Pitcher Comparison
Miami Marlins 3-7 4.72 1.25 114.1 110 94 33 11 | Stat Type (Probable) Pitcher W-L ERA WHIP IP H K BB HR | Baltimore Orioles 9-4 4.78 1.37 98.0 109 92 25 20 |
Marlins vs. Orioles Prediction
Take the Orioles to win the opener of the series against Miami. It will be a fantastic, must-watch matchup, but I like the Orioles in this one. Home field advantage will give Baltimore the edge, and although the Marlins are one of the best-hitting teams in the league, the Orioles average more runs per game. Baltimore has 56 more runs scored than the Marlins, as well as 20 more home runs hit. The Orioles have been remarkably consistent this season, recording nearly the same number of wins both at home and away, and in their first meeting since 2021 against the Miami Marlins, Baltimore will win.
Prediction: Baltimore Orioles Moneyline (-120)
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