New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox: Analysis, Prediction, and Betting Tips

Sam Batz

The MLB regular season continues on Friday, June 16th with the New York Yankees taking on the Boston Red Sox (7:10 PM EST, NESN/YES Network/MLB Extra Innings). Dating all the way back to April 26th, 1901, the Yankees-Red Sox rivalry is one of the oldest in sports. They have played a total of 2,264 games in their 122 year rivalry, with New York leading the series 1235-1015 over Boston. But this year, the Yankees are 1-2 against the Red Sox, and enter Friday’s matchup as slight underdogs. According to the most recent MLB Power Rankings from ESPN, Boston is No. 11 and the Yankees are No. 7, setting up this storied matchup to be another tightly contested series.

The New York Yankees (+1.5; ML -110)

The Yankees are a top-10 team, and after a slow start to the season, seem to have found their groove. New York is 39-30 (56.5%), putting them at 3rd place in the AL East, 5th in the American League, and 7th in the MLB. They went 5-5 in their last 10 games, and 10-10 in their last 20. A lack of consistency has hindered the Yankees, but in their highly competitive division, New York has again lacked consistency. They are 11-12 against the AL East, and 27-25 against the American League, yet they remain a favorite to reach the postseason with a 78% probability.     

The Boston Red Sox (-1.5; ML -110)

The Boston Red Sox are one of the most consistently successful teams in the MLB, but this season, they are struggling to win games. Boston is currently 34-35 (49.3%), 14.0 games behind the division leading Tampa Bay Rays, and 5.0 games behind the New York Yankees. The Red Sox are 5th in the AL East, 9th in the American League, and 17th in the MLB. They went 4-6 in their last 10 games, and 8-12 in their last 20. The Red Sox are not expected to make the playoffs this year (14% probability), as their division is arguably the best in the league, and Boston doesn’t seem to have what it takes to compete this season.   

Yankees vs. Red Sox Opening Odds

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Yankees vs. Red Sox: Season Stats

Yankees vs. Red Sox: Betting Trends

New York Yankees

• 37-32 record ATS
• 20-11 record ATS on the ROAD
• 26-26 record ATS versus the AL this season
• 30-37-2 O/U record this season
• 2-7-1 O/U record in the last 10 games
• 10-12 as UNDERDOGS 
• 8-9 as UNDERDOGS on the ROAD

Boston Red Sox

• 33-36 record ATS
• 17-19 record ATS at HOME
• 22-21 record ATS versus the AL this season
• 37-30-2 O/U record this season
• 3-7 O/U record in the last 10 games
• 16-14 as FAVORITES
• 10-10 as FAVORITES at HOME

Yankees vs. Red Sox: Starting Pitcher Comparison

Yankees vs. Red Sox Prediction

Take the Yankees to beat the Red Sox on Friday, June 16th. The Red Sox average more runs per game (4.9) than the Yankees (4.6), but Boston is giving up nearly 1 more run per game (4.9) than New York (3.9). The Yankees top-10 defense has saved them this season, as they’ve struggled at the plate, recording just 7.6 hits per game (26th in the MLB), but are giving up less than 4 runs per game to their opponents. The Red Sox average 8.9 hits per game, but will struggle against New York’s pitching on Friday. This rivalry is over a century old, and both teams hate losing to each other, but in the 2,265th meeting between the Yankees and the Red Sox, put your money on New York to win Friday. 

Prediction: New York Yankees Moneyline (-105)

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