Pittsburgh Pirates at Tampa Bay Rays: Prediction, Player Props, & Betting Tips

By Sam Batz

The MLB season continues on Wednesday, May 3rd with a mouthwatering matchup between the two best teams in the league, the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Tampa Bay Rays (6:40 PM EST, Bally Sports/MLB Extra Innings). The Rays are off to an historic start, but the much improved Pirates are right behind them. Tampa Bay leads the MLB in nearly every scoring statistic, but if anyone can knock them down a peg, it’s the Pittsburgh Pirates. Unsurprisingly, the Rays are -1.5 run favorites, while the Pirates are +1.5 run underdogs. The Rays and Pirates will play a 3-game series (5/2, 5/3, & 5/4), which is the only time they will meet during the regular season. 

Away Team: Pittsburgh Pirates (+1.5; ML +185)

The Pittsburgh Pirates went 62-100 and were last place in the division last season. This year, the Pirates are 20-9 (69.0%) through the first month and change and lead the NL Central. Pittsburgh also leads the National League and is 2nd in the MLB, 3 games behind Tampa Bay. The Pirates could potentially close that gap with a sweep, and while analysts would say that is highly unlikely, the Pirates would tell you they’re good enough to beat anyone. In their last 10 games, Pittsburgh went 8-2, but are coming off a 7-2 loss to the Washington Nationals on Sunday, the day after the Pirates whooped them 16-1. 

Home Team: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5; ML -200)

The Tampa Bay Rays are dominating the MLB. They started the year undefeated through the first 13 games, and are now 23-6 (79.3%), which is still the best record in the league. The Rays also lead the league in runs (195), runs against (92), hits (284), home runs (61), RBIs (188), and post the best batting average (.280). They are very tough to beat at home (14-2 record) but are decent on the road as well (9-4). Tampa has a 90% chance to make the playoffs, a 53% chance to win the AL East, and according to ESPN Analytics, the Rays have a 74.8% chance to beat the Pirates on Wednesday. 

Pirates vs. Rays Odds

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Pirates vs. Rays: Season Stats

Pirates vs. Rays: Betting Trends

Pittsburgh Pirates

• 19-10 ATS
• 6-1 ATS in the last 7 games
• 7-1 ATS in the last 8 games on the road
• OVER in 5 of the last 6 games
• OVER in 5 of the last 7 games on the road
• 12-8 record as UNDERDOGS this season

Tampa Bay Rays

• 19-10 ATS
• 2-4 ATS in the last 6 games
• 11-5 ATS in the last 16 home games
• OVER in 4 of the last 7 games
• UNDER in 3 of the last 6 home games
• 23-5 record as FAVORITES this season

Pirates vs. Rays: Starting Pitcher Comparison

Pirates vs. Rays: Player Props

Bryan Reynolds (Pirates LF): Under 1.5 Hits (-240)

Bryan Reynolds leads the pirates with 33 hits on 103 ABs. He averages 1.14 hits per game and has an impressive batting average of .320. He is likely to record at least 1 hit, but against Tampa’s pitching, I don’t see him doing much more than that. Bryan Reynolds will go under 1.5 hits on Wednesday. 

Randy Arozarena (Rays LF): Over 0.5 Hits (-200)

Randy Arozarena leads the best hitting team in baseball with 36 hits on 110 ABs, for a batting average of .327. Arozarena has the 7th-best average. He also leads the Rays with 28 RBIs, and is tied for the most HRs on the team with 7. Randy Arozarena is off to a fabulous start this season, and I predict he will go over 0.5 hits on Wednesday. 

Pirates vs. Rays Prediction

Take the Tampa Bay Rays to win on Wednesday. The Rays are the best team in the league, and they have been on fire at the plate, averaging 6.7 runs per game. They’ve only lost 2 out of 16 home games and are undefeated (4-0) with McClanahan on the mound. The Pirates are the 2nd-best team in the league record-wise, and average a respectable 5.4 runs per game, but that likely won’t be enough to topple Tampa. The Rays will hand Pirates pitcher Mitch Keller his first loss of the season, and win their 8th series of the year. 

Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline (-200)

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