Raiders vs Seahawks preseason expert prediction, picks & odds   

The NFL preseason kicks into high gear Thursday night as the Las Vegas Raiders travel to Seattle for a compelling matchup against the Seahawks at Lumen Field. The Raiders enter as 4.5-point road favorites despite playing in hostile territory, setting up an intriguing betting scenario for the 10 PM ET kickoff on NFL Network.

This exhibition contest features fascinating storylines, including Pete Carroll’s return to face his former Seattle team in his new role as Raiders head coach, while both squads navigate significant roster transitions. With fresh faces under center and revamped coaching staffs, this preseason opener offers valuable insights into how these franchises will approach the 2025 campaign.

Las Vegas Raiders: New Era Under Pete Carroll’s Leadership

The Silver and Black enter 2025 with renewed optimism despite enduring one of their most challenging stretches in franchise history. Coming off a disappointing 4-13 season that saw them rank 28th in scoring offense (18.2 PPG) and 25th in points allowed (25.5 PPG), the Raiders made bold moves to reshape their identity.

Pete Carroll’s hiring at age 73 represents a calculated gamble, bringing championship pedigree and defensive expertise to a franchise desperately seeking stability. The legendary coach’s track record speaks volumes, but questions remain about his ability to implement his system with a roster still undergoing significant reconstruction.

Offensively, the Raiders underwent a complete philosophical overhaul by acquiring quarterback Geno Smith through trade, reuniting him with his former Seattle offensive coordinator. This move provides immediate veteran leadership while rookie sensation Ashton Jeanty adds dynamic rushing ability to complement an improving receiving corps led by tight end Brock Bowers and veteran Jakobi Meyers.

The defensive side presents greater concerns, particularly after the surprising release of Christian Wilkins following just one season. While superstar pass rusher Maxx Crosby anchors the front seven, the Raiders struggled mightily generating consistent pressure in 2024, ranking among the NFL’s worst units in quarterback pressures and sacks.

Seattle Seahawks: Transitional Phase Under Mike Macdonald

The Seahawks enter their second season under head coach Mike Macdonald facing their own set of challenges and opportunities. After missing the playoffs in three of the past four seasons, Seattle made aggressive moves to retool their roster, particularly on offense where significant changes occurred.

The most notable transformation involves the quarterback position, where Sam Darnold takes over after the departure of Geno Smith. Darnold brings extensive starting experience and arm talent, but consistency has been his primary weakness throughout his career. The addition of Cooper Kupp from the Rams provides an immediate upgrade at receiver, joining emerging star Jaxon Smith-Njigba in what could become a formidable passing attack.

Seattle’s ground game features promising depth with Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet forming a complementary backfield duo. The offensive line received attention through the draft and free agency, addressing long-standing protection issues that plagued previous seasons.

Defensively, the Seahawks made perhaps their most impactful move by acquiring four-time Pro Bowl edge rusher DeMarcus Lawrence. This addition transforms an already solid unit anchored by rising stars Devon Witherspoon and Leonard Williams. The secondary features intriguing young talent that could develop into Seattle’s next championship-caliber defense.

Key Matchup Factors and Betting Considerations

Several critical elements will influence Thursday night’s outcome, with particular emphasis on depth chart evaluations that define preseason football success.

Quarterback depth emerges as the primary determining factor in exhibition contests. The Raiders’ backup situation behind Geno Smith features Aidan O’Connell, whose inconsistent performance and turnover tendencies have been concerning throughout camp. Third-stringer Cam Miller remains largely unproven against quality competition, creating potential vulnerability in extended action.

Seattle’s depth chart presents more intrigue with veteran Drew Lock providing reliable backup options. Lock’s 10 career victories as a starter demonstrate his ability to manage games effectively, while his experience across multiple offensive systems should translate well against vanilla preseason defenses. The wildcard remains Alabama transfer Jalen Milroe, whose dual-threat capabilities align perfectly with modern NFL trends emphasizing quarterback mobility.

Coaching philosophies also play crucial roles in preseason contests. Carroll announced his intention to play starters for meaningful snaps, stating “Everybody is live, everybody is ready to go,” while Seattle typically adopts more conservative approaches with their established veterans.

Advanced Statistical Analysis and Trends

With both head coaches emphasizing defensive principles and uncertain quarterback situations, the total of 37.5 points appears vulnerable to the under, reflecting typical preseason scoring patterns where offensive execution often lags behind defensive preparation.

Historical preseason trends favor home teams receiving points, particularly when dealing with roster uncertainty. Seattle’s deeper roster construction and home field advantages make them appealing as 4.5-point underdogs, especially considering the Raiders’ recent struggles maintaining competitive intensity in exhibition games.

Special teams units warrant attention as both franchises implement new coordinators and systems. Field position battles often determine preseason outcomes, with younger players eager to demonstrate value through coverage teams and return specialists.

Injury Impact and Roster Bubble Players

Preseason contests provide crucial evaluation opportunities for players fighting for roster spots, creating unique betting dynamics absent from regular season games. The Raiders enter with several position battles unresolved, particularly along their defensive line and secondary depth charts.

Seattle’s competition centers around receiver depth behind their established starters, where undrafted rookies and practice squad veterans compete for limited spots. These players often deliver maximum effort in preseason settings, potentially impacting game flow and scoring patterns.

Both teams must navigate delicate balancing acts between meaningful evaluation and injury prevention, leading to conservative play-calling that benefits under bettors but creates volatility in spread outcomes.

Expert Predictions and Betting Recommendations

After comprehensive analysis of roster construction, coaching tendencies, and historical preseason patterns, the value proposition clearly favors Seattle receiving 4.5 points at home. The Seahawks’ superior depth, particularly at quarterback where Drew Lock provides veteran stability, combined with Jalen Milroe’s explosive potential, creates multiple pathways to competitive performance.

The Raiders’ road disadvantage compounds concerns about their backup quarterback situation and overall roster depth. While Pete Carroll’s presence adds intrigue, preseason success often correlates more strongly with player talent than coaching adjustments.

Primary Recommendation: Seattle Seahawks +4.5 (-110)

The home underdog profile historically succeeds in preseason environments, particularly when supported by superior depth chart construction. Seattle’s defensive improvements under Macdonald should limit explosive plays while their quarterback depth provides consistent offensive execution throughout four quarters.

Secondary Play: Under 37.5 Total Points (-111)

Conservative offensive approaches from both coaching staffs, combined with typical preseason execution inconsistencies, suggest a lower-scoring affair than casual bettors anticipate.

Insights

Which team has better quarterback depth for this preseason matchup?

Seattle holds a significant advantage with Drew Lock’s veteran experience and Jalen Milroe’s dual-threat capabilities, while Las Vegas struggles with Aidan O’Connell’s turnover issues and unproven third-string options.

How important is Pete Carroll’s return to Seattle from a betting perspective?

While emotionally compelling, Carroll’s coaching impact matters less in preseason than roster depth and player execution, making Seattle’s superior personnel depth the more relevant factor for bettors.

What’s the significance of the 4.5-point spread in this matchup?

The spread reflects uncertainty around both teams’ transitions, but historically favors home underdogs in preseason settings, especially when supported by better depth chart construction like Seattle possesses.

Should bettors focus on the total or the spread for this game?

Both offer value, but the spread provides better risk-reward given Seattle’s home field advantage and superior quarterback depth, while the under benefits from typical preseason offensive struggles.

How do recent roster moves impact the betting equation?

Seattle’s acquisition of DeMarcus Lawrence and Cooper Kupp demonstrates commitment to immediate improvement, while Las Vegas’s Christian Wilkins release suggests ongoing roster instability that could affect team chemistry.