White Sox vs Rays expert prediction, picks & odds
The Chicago White Sox arrive in St. Petersburg carrying momentum from their impressive four-game winning streak, setting up an intriguing Tuesday night showdown against the struggling Tampa Bay Rays at George M. Steinbrenner Field. With first pitch scheduled for 7:35 PM ET, this American League clash presents compelling betting opportunities as two teams heading in opposite directions prepare to battle.
The Rays are the favorite in this one, at -220, while the underdog White Sox have +180 odds to upset. Tampa Bay is a 1.5-run favorite (at -110 odds). A 9-run total is set in this matchup. Despite the odds favoring the home team, Chicago’s recent surge makes this contest far from a foregone conclusion.
White Sox Momentum Building in July Turnaround
Chicago’s transformation throughout July has been nothing short of remarkable for a franchise that entered the month with just 28 wins through their first 92 games. The White Sox have compiled an 8-9 record in July, representing their most competitive month of the 2025 campaign. This recent uptick culminated in Monday’s commanding 8-3 victory over Tampa Bay, extending their winning streak to four games – their longest since May 2024.
Brooks Baldwin emerged as the catalyst in Monday’s opener, launching a three-run homer that set the tone for Chicago’s offensive explosion. Baldwin’s fifth home run of the season highlighted his recent hot streak, having collected hits in six of his previous seven contests while posting an impressive .348/.375/.696 slash line during that span.
The veteran presence of Luis Robert Jr. has provided additional stability to Chicago’s lineup. Robert Jr. extended his hitting streak to eight games with two singles on Monday, elevating his July batting average to .345 – a dramatic improvement after struggling to reach .200 in the three previous months.
This season, the White Sox are 35-65 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 48-50 ATS. These numbers suggest that Chicago has been undervalued by oddsmakers throughout much of the season, creating potential value for bettors willing to back the underdog.
Pitching Matchup Analysis: Martin vs Rasmussen
The starting pitching duel features significant intrigue as both teams navigate different challenges on the mound. Chicago may activate right-hander Davis Martin from the injured list to make Tuesday’s start, marking his return from a forearm strain that has sidelined him since June. Martin completed his rehabilitation assignment on July 9, suggesting he’s ready to rejoin the rotation.
Prior to his injury, Martin posted a 2-7 record with a 3.79 ERA across 80.2 innings, striking out 53 batters. The 2018 14th-round draft pick carries a career 4.27 ERA over 39 MLB appearances, with 32 starts under his belt. His potential activation represents a calculated risk for Chicago, as returning pitchers often face rust in their initial outings.
Tampa Bay counters with Drew Rasmussen, who has emerged as one of their most reliable starters this season. The right-hander boasts a 7-5 record alongside an impressive 2.86 ERA through 19 starts, accumulating 77 strikeouts in 91.1 innings pitched. However, Rasmussen’s recent struggles with pitch efficiency have become concerning – he’s failed to record an out beyond the third inning in his last three starts.
Rasmussen’s track record since joining Tampa Bay via trade from Milwaukee in 2021 remains solid, with a career 27-17 record and 2.93 ERA. His ability to bounce back from recent struggles could determine Tampa Bay’s success in halting Chicago’s momentum.
Rays’ July Struggles Continue to Mount
Tampa Bay’s July performance represents a stark contrast to Chicago’s resurgence, as the Rays have stumbled to a disappointing 5-11 record this month. Monday’s loss dropped them further behind in the competitive AL East race, now trailing Toronto by 7.5 games and falling to fourth place in the division standings.
Shane Baz‘s struggles epitomized Tampa Bay’s recent pitching woes, surrendering eight earned runs in just four innings during Monday’s defeat. The Rays’ offensive execution with runners in scoring position proved equally problematic, managing just 1-for-11 in those crucial situations while producing only two extra-base hits – Taylor Walls’ two-run double and Yandy Diaz’s solo home run.
With Shane Baz toeing the rubber betting the Rays on the Run Line would have returned a 4.30-unit profit in 2025, indicating that Tampa Bay has been underperforming expectations when Baz starts, creating potential betting value on the run line.
Key Injury Reports Impact Both Rosters
Chicago’s injury situation shows signs of improvement with Martin’s potential return, though several key contributors remain sidelined. The White Sox continue to miss significant pieces including RHP Drew Thorpe (Tommy John surgery), RHP Prelander Berroa (Tommy John surgery), and LHP Martín Pérez (elbow), among others on the 60-day injured list.
Tampa Bay faces more extensive injury challenges that have contributed to their July struggles. The Rays’ 60-day injured list includes critical players such as RHP Alex Faedo (shoulder inflammation), LHP Shane McClanahan (triceps), and RF Jonny De Luca (shoulder), significantly impacting their depth and flexibility.
Advanced Analytics and Betting Trends
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Monday’s MLB game with 64.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries. However, this prediction model may not fully account for Chicago’s recent momentum shift and Tampa Bay’s mounting struggles.
The betting public’s perception often lags behind rapid team transformations, potentially creating value opportunities. Chicago’s four-game winning streak coincides with improved offensive production and more competitive starting pitching, factors that traditional models may underweight in real-time adjustments.
Tampa Bay’s home field advantage at George M. Steinbrenner Field, their temporary home, provides less of an edge than traditional ballpark factors might suggest. The neutral-site atmosphere could actually benefit a visiting team carrying momentum like Chicago.
Insights
Will the White Sox continue their winning streak against the favored Rays?
Chicago’s four-game winning streak represents their longest since May 2024, driven by improved offensive production from Brooks Baldwin (.348 average over seven games) and Luis Robert Jr. (eight-game hitting streak). However, Tampa Bay’s superior season record (52-49 vs 36-65) and home field advantage make them rightful favorites despite recent struggles.
How significant is Davis Martin’s potential return for the White Sox?
Martin’s activation from the injured list could provide Chicago with additional rotation depth, though returning from a forearm strain carries inherent risk. His pre-injury 3.79 ERA was respectable for a White Sox rotation that has struggled consistently. The rust factor from missing six weeks may initially impact his effectiveness.
Can Drew Rasmussen bounce back from his recent struggles?
Rasmussen’s inability to pitch beyond the third inning in three consecutive starts represents a concerning trend for Tampa Bay. His season-long 2.86 ERA suggests underlying talent remains intact, but pitch efficiency issues have limited his impact. His career 2.93 ERA with Tampa Bay indicates bounce-back potential.
What makes this game attractive from a betting perspective?
The combination of Chicago’s recent momentum, Tampa Bay’s July struggles (5-11 record), and the +180 underdog odds on the White Sox creates compelling value. The 9-run total also appears reasonable given both teams’ offensive capabilities and potential pitching vulnerabilities.
How do the injury reports affect each team’s chances?
Tampa Bay’s extensive injured list, particularly missing Shane McClanahan and other key contributors, has depleted their depth throughout July’s struggles. Chicago’s potential activation of Martin could actually provide them with an advantage if he can contribute effectively in his return.
Should bettors consider the run line in this matchup?
With Shane Baz toeing the rubber betting the Rays on the Run Line would have returned a 4.30-unit profit in 2025, but Rasmussen starting changes this dynamic significantly. Chicago’s +1.5 at -114 odds offers protection against a close loss while capitalizing on their recent offensive surge.
