Mariners vs Yankees expert prediction, picks & odds
The Seattle Mariners and New York Yankees clash in the decisive third game of their pivotal 2025 series this Thursday evening, with first pitch scheduled for 7:05 PM ET at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees are favored by 1.5 runs at home against the Mariners, with New York sitting at -130 on the moneyline while Seattle carries underdog odds of +110. After the Yankees captured both opening contests with commanding victories of 10-3 and 9-6, the pressure mounts on Seattle to salvage at least one victory before this crucial series concludes.
The stakes couldn’t be higher for both American League contenders. New York currently holds a commanding 4-1 season series advantage over Seattle, having outscored the Mariners by a staggering 34-18 margin across their five previous encounters. This dominance has positioned the Yankees as clear favorites heading into Thursday’s contest, despite their recent struggles over the past month.
Yankees’ Recent Struggles Hide Playoff Pedigree
Despite their current 51-41 record and second-place standing in the highly competitive AL East, the Yankees have encountered significant turbulence in recent weeks. Their struggles became particularly evident following a devastating 0-4 series sweep at the hands of the Toronto Blue Jays, which cost them the division lead. Prior to this current series with Seattle, New York had dropped six of their previous seven games, posting a concerning 12-18 record over their last 30 outings.
However, these recent setbacks shouldn’t overshadow the Yankees’ underlying offensive excellence. The Bronx Bombers continue to rank among MLB’s elite in crucial batting categories, leading the league in both on-base percentage (.337) and slugging percentage (.455). Their pitching staff has also maintained respectability, allowing opponents the second-lowest batting average in baseball (.224) while posting a 3.83 ERA (12th) and 1.22 WHIP (7th).
The Yankees’ impressive +105 run differential ranks third-highest in Major League Baseball, demonstrating their ability to dominate games when firing on all cylinders. This offensive firepower, combined with their superior talent depth, makes them formidable opponents despite their recent inconsistencies.
🚀 Unlock Your Winning Potential with OSB’s Expert Betting Packages – Get Exclusive Access Now! 💰 Start Winning
Mariners Fighting for Wildcard Positioning
Seattle enters Thursday’s contest with a 48-44 record, trailing the Houston Astros by several games in the AL West division race. However, the Mariners remain well-positioned in the competitive wildcard chase, making every game crucial for their postseason aspirations. A victory against the Yankees would provide significant momentum heading into a challenging schedule that includes road games in Detroit before the All-Star break and a crucial home series against Houston immediately after.
The Mariners have established themselves as a consistently solid offensive unit throughout 2025, though they lack the explosive power of their opponents. Through 91 games, Seattle has accumulated 405 runs (15th in MLB) and 771 hits (14th), posting a .247 batting average (16th), .322 on-base percentage (11th), and .406 slugging percentage (12th). Their pitching staff has mirrored this middle-of-the-pack performance, recording a 3.84 ERA (14th) and 1.26 WHIP (15th) while limiting opponents to a .242 batting average (15th).
This balanced approach has served Seattle well in their previous matchup against New York, where strategic pitching and timely hitting secured their lone victory in the season series.
Pitching Matchup: All-Star Woo vs. Struggling Stroman
Thursday’s contest features a fascinating pitching duel between Seattle’s emerging ace Bryan Woo and New York’s veteran Marcus Stroman. The matchup represents a classic clash between youth and experience, with both starters carrying significant question marks heading into this crucial game.
Bryan Woo’s All-Star Emergence
Bryan Woo has emerged as Seattle’s most reliable starting pitcher in 2025, earning his first All-Star selection with impressive numbers that include an 8-4 record, 2.77 ERA, and outstanding 0.96 WHIP. The young right-hander has demonstrated remarkable consistency and composure, particularly in high-pressure situations against quality opponents.
Woo’s previous encounter with the Yankees earlier this season showcased his potential for dominance against elite competition. In that memorable performance, he surrendered just four hits while blanking New York through six-plus innings, providing the foundation for Seattle’s eventual 2-1 victory in eleven innings. His 2025 advanced metrics show impressive command, with opponents posting an average exit velocity of 88 MPH and a hard-hit percentage of just 38%, indicating his ability to limit hard contact consistently.
The key to Woo’s success lies in his exceptional command and ability to attack the strike zone aggressively while maintaining pinpoint control. His low walk rate and high strikeout percentage make him particularly effective against aggressive hitting teams like the Yankees, who can be vulnerable to pitchers who consistently throw strikes.
Marcus Stroman’s Concerning Struggles
Marcus Stroman presents a stark contrast to his mound opponent, as the veteran right-hander has struggled significantly throughout his 2025 campaign. Despite earning $18.5 million this season under his current contract terms of 2 years/$37M (24-25) with a 2026 player option, Stroman has posted alarming numbers that include a 7.45 ERA and 1.66 WHIP across five appearances.
Stroman’s season has been disrupted by an extended stint on the injured list due to a knee injury, limiting his ability to establish rhythm and consistency. His most recent outing on July 4th against the crosstown rival Mets resulted in a disappointing 6-5 loss, where he surrendered seven hits and three earned runs through five innings of work.
The veteran’s struggles have become particularly concerning given his track record of success throughout his career. His inability to locate pitches consistently and elevated home run rate have made him vulnerable against powerful lineups, creating additional pressure for the Yankees’ bullpen to cover extended innings.
Key Factors and Betting Considerations
Several critical factors will likely determine the outcome of Thursday’s pivotal contest. The Yankees’ superior offensive firepower gives them a significant advantage, particularly against a Mariners pitching staff that has shown vulnerability to power hitting throughout the season. New York’s ability to generate runs in bunches could prove decisive if they can solve Woo’s command and control.
However, Seattle’s motivation and desperation factor cannot be overlooked. The Mariners understand the importance of avoiding a series sweep, particularly with their challenging upcoming schedule. Their proven ability to execute in close games, combined with Woo’s track record of success against the Yankees, provides legitimate hope for an upset victory.
The bullpen battle will likely play a crucial role in determining the final outcome. Both teams have reliable relief options, but the Yankees’ depth and experience in high-pressure situations could provide the decisive edge in the late innings.
🏆 Want more daily free picks like this? 💸
Join our exclusive Telegram channel where we break down NBA and MLB matchups, share real-time betting insights, and help you stay one step ahead 👉 Click here to join!
Insights
Will Bryan Woo’s All-Star form continue against the Yankees?
Woo’s exceptional command and previous success against New York suggest he can deliver another strong performance. His ability to limit hard contact and attack the strike zone aggressively plays directly into the Yankees’ aggressive hitting approach, creating opportunities for weak contact and strikeouts.
Can Marcus Stroman bounce back from his recent struggles?
Stroman’s concerning statistics and recent injury history make him a significant question mark for Thursday’s contest. His elevated ERA and WHIP suggest ongoing command issues that could be exploited by Seattle’s patient hitting approach.
How important is this game for Seattle’s playoff chances?
This game represents a crucial opportunity for the Mariners to gain momentum before facing challenging upcoming series. A victory would provide significant psychological benefits and help maintain their wildcard positioning in the competitive American League race.
What betting trends favor each team?
Current odds show the Yankees with a 55.4% win probability, reflecting their superior talent and home field advantage. However, Seattle’s underdog status at +110 provides attractive value for bettors who believe in Woo’s ability to neutralize New York’s offensive threats.
Which team handles pressure better in crucial games?
The Yankees’ playoff experience and veteran leadership typically provide advantages in high-pressure situations. However, Seattle’s recent success in close games and their desperation to avoid a series sweep could create the motivation needed to overcome New York’s talent advantage.
What’s the most likely final score scenario?
Given both teams’ offensive capabilities and pitching matchup uncertainties, a moderate-scoring affair seems most likely. The total betting line reflects expectations for a competitive game where both teams can generate scoring opportunities while quality pitching keeps the game manageable.
