Yankees vs Athletics expert prediction, picks & odds
The weekend series between the Yankees and Athletics reaches its second chapter this Saturday afternoon, with first pitch scheduled for 1:05 PM ET at the iconic Yankee Stadium. Following Friday’s commanding 3-0 Yankees victory, both teams enter Saturday’s contest with contrasting momentum and vastly different expectations.
Athletics’ Offensive Struggles Reach Critical Point
The Yankees are again the AL team to beat, with current odds of winning it all at +550, while the Athletics continue their rebuilding phase with limited offensive firepower. Oakland’s recent performance has been particularly concerning, managing just three hits in Friday’s shutout loss while going down in order for the final 12 outs.
The Athletics’ batting woes extend beyond a single game disappointment. Over their last 15 contests, Oakland has posted a dismal .222 team batting average, ranking 26th among all MLB teams. This offensive drought has translated to a meager 3.07 runs per game during this stretch, placing tremendous pressure on their pitching staff to keep games competitive.
Currently sitting at 33-51, the Athletics remain anchored at the bottom of the American League West division, trailing the division-leading Houston Astros by a substantial 16.5 games. Their season win total projections have them with their highest win total since 2021, following last year’s 69-93 finish, though current performance suggests even modest expectations may prove optimistic.
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JP Sears’ Troubling Recent Form
Saturday’s starting assignment falls to left-handed pitcher JP Sears, whose 2025 campaign has been marked by inconsistency and concerning trends. The southpaw enters this contest with a 5-7 record and an elevated 5.54 ERA across 81.0 innings pitched, having struck out 63 batters while struggling with command and location.
Sears’ recent seven-start stretch reveals the depth of his current struggles, posting an alarming 8.72 ERA that has coincided with Oakland’s offensive difficulties. The long ball has proven particularly problematic for the 29-year-old pitcher, who is surrendering home runs at a concerning rate of 2.0 per nine innings pitched.
This vulnerability to power hitting becomes especially significant when facing a Yankees lineup that has demonstrated consistent ability to capitalize on mistakes. The combination of Sears’ recent struggles and the Yankees’ patient approach at the plate suggests potential for early offensive output from the home team.
Yankees Maintain AL East Momentum
The New York Yankees improved to 47-34 following Friday’s victory, extending their American League East division lead to 1.5 games ahead of their closest pursuers. This positioning reflects the team’s consistent performance throughout the first half of the season, as they continue building toward another playoff appearance.
Friday’s victory showcased the Yankees’ ability to win games through different approaches. Jazz Chisholm Jr. provided the offensive spark with a crucial solo home run, while Cody Bellinger contributed with a 2-for-4 performance including an RBI in the third inning. This balanced offensive attack, combined with effective pitching, represents the formula that has driven their early season success.
The Yankees’ recent form has been particularly impressive at home, where they’ve leveraged familiar surroundings and crowd support to maintain consistent performance. Their ability to capitalize on opponent mistakes while minimizing their own errors has been a hallmark of their 2025 campaign.
Clarke Schmidt’s Exceptional Run Continues
Saturday’s pitching matchup heavily favors the Yankees, with Clarke Schmidt taking the mound for his 13th start of the season. The right-hander has emerged as one of the most reliable performers in the Yankees’ rotation, compiling an impressive 4-3 record with a stellar 2.84 ERA across 69.2 innings pitched.
Schmidt’s recent performance has been nothing short of spectacular, maintaining a remarkable 1.03 ERA throughout the month of June. His current scoreless streak has reached three consecutive starts, spanning 24.1 innings without allowing a run. This dominant stretch culminated in his previous outing against the Baltimore Orioles, where he pitched a no-hitter through seven innings before being removed from the game.
Clarke Schmidt has 65 strikeouts this season and has demonstrated improved command and pitch selection throughout 2025. His ability to attack the strike zone while inducing weak contact has made him a perfect complement to the Yankees’ offensive capabilities.
The advanced metrics support Schmidt’s visual dominance, with Avg Exit Velocity: 87.9, Hard Hit %: 34.1, wOBA: .266, xwOBA: .268, Barrel %: 5.4 indicating exceptional performance in limiting quality contact from opposing hitters.
Key Injury Considerations
Both teams enter Saturday’s contest dealing with significant injury concerns that impact their depth and strategic options. The Athletics’ injury list reads like a medical report, with key players sidelined across multiple positions.
Oakland’s most notable absences include catcher Shea Langeliers (oblique) and outfielder Miguel Andujar (oblique), both currently on the 10-day injured list. The extended absence list features impactful players like second baseman Zack Gelof (wrist surgery) and reliever José Leclerc (lat strain), limiting manager Mark Kotsay’s tactical flexibility.
The Yankees face their own injury challenges, though their depth provides better coverage for absent players. Notable long-term absences include ace pitcher Gerrit Cole (Tommy John surgery) and reliever Jake Cousins (elbow), while several other pitchers remain on various injured lists with shorter-term ailments.
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Insights
What makes Clarke Schmidt so effective against left-handed hitting teams like Oakland?
Schmidt’s success stems from his diverse pitch mix and improved command, allowing him to consistently attack the strike zone while keeping hitters off balance. His recent no-hit performance against Baltimore demonstrates his ability to dominate even quality offensive teams.
How significant is JP Sears’ home run problem against a power-hitting Yankees lineup?
Sears’ 2.0 HR/9 rate becomes particularly concerning against a Yankees team that ranks among baseball’s best in capitalizing on mistake pitches. His recent struggles suggest vulnerability to the type of patient, aggressive approach that characterizes New York’s offensive philosophy.
Can the Athletics’ offense break out of their recent slump?
While any team can have breakthrough performances, Oakland’s .222 batting average over 15 games represents a systemic issue rather than temporary cold streak. Their 3.07 runs per game during this period suggests fundamental offensive challenges that won’t be easily resolved.
What betting value exists in this matchup?
The significant disparity in pitching matchups, combined with Oakland’s offensive struggles and Schmidt’s dominant form, suggests the Yankees present solid value despite potentially being heavily favored. The under on the total runs may also offer value given Schmidt’s recent scoreless streak.
How important is this game for the Yankees’ division race?
While individual games rarely determine division outcomes, maintaining momentum and extending leads when possible remains crucial. A victory would demonstrate continued dominance over rebuilding teams while keeping pressure on division rivals.
