Cubs vs Cardinals expert prediction, picks & odds

The Chicago Cubs entered 2025 with championship aspirations, and their 46-32 record validates those expectations. The Cubs have gone 25-7 in games when they hit at least two home runs, showcasing their offensive explosiveness that has become their calling card this season.

Currently leading the National League Central with a comfortable 3.0-game cushion over Milwaukee, the Cubs have established themselves as legitimate contenders. However, their recent 1-4 stretch raises questions about their consistency heading into the season’s second half. The Monday night 8-2 loss to St. Louis exposed some concerning vulnerabilities in their pitching depth.

Ben Brown‘s implosion on Monday, surrendering eight earned runs, highlighted the Cubs’ rotation concerns beyond their established starters. Despite collecting seven hits, Chicago’s 2-5 performance with runners in scoring position proved costly. Pete Crow-Armstrong‘s multi-hit performance (2-3, two runs) continues his breakout campaign that has transformed the Cubs’ offensive dynamic.

The betting markets reflect Chicago’s division dominance, with the Cubs listed at -320 favorites to capture the NL Central crown. This pricing suggests approximately 76% implied probability, indicating strong confidence in their ability to maintain their lead despite recent struggles.

St. Louis Cardinals: Defying Preseason Expectations

The Cardinals‘ 43-36 record represents one of 2025’s most pleasant surprises. Preseason projections had the Cardinals finishing 75-87 and potentially entering rebuild mode, making their current third-place position in the division a testament to organizational resilience.

St. Louis has caught fire recently, posting a 6-1 record over their last seven contests. This surge includes a three-game sweep of Chicago’s crosstown rivals, the White Sox, and taking two of three from Cincinnati. Their offensive explosion in Monday’s 8-2 victory over the Cubs demonstrated their capability to compete with division leaders.

The Cardinals’ offensive depth shone through in their Monday victory, with batters 1-8 all crossing home plate and eight of nine starters recording hits. Four home runs powered the attack, suggesting this lineup possesses more upside than initially projected. Matthew Liberatore’s seven-inning, two-run performance exemplified the type of pitching the Cardinals need to sustain their unexpected success.

Current playoff odds position St. Louis at +225 to reach the postseason, translating to roughly 31% implied probability. While still considered longshots, their recent play suggests these odds might undervalue their potential.

Pitching Matchup: Experience vs. Youth

Jameson Taillon’s Steady Presence

Jameson Taillon brings veteran leadership to Tuesday’s mound assignment, carrying a 7-4 record with a 3.84 ERA across 15 starts. His 1.04 WHIP ranks 13th league-wide, demonstrating excellent command and control. However, his most recent outing against Milwaukee raises concerns, as he surrendered five earned runs over four innings, snapping a five-game winning streak.

Taillon’s season-long consistency makes him a reliable option for the Cubs’ rotation, but his vulnerability to big innings could prove problematic against a Cardinals lineup riding high on confidence. His ability to limit baserunners typically serves him well, but recent hard contact allowed suggests potential regression.

Michael McGreevy’s Emerging Talent

The 24-year-old Michael McGreevy represents St. Louis’s commitment to developing young talent. Through three starts spanning 16.2 innings, McGreevy has posted impressive numbers: 1-1 record, 2.70 ERA, and 0.84 WHIP. His most recent outing against the White Sox showcased his potential, allowing just one earned run over five innings.

McGreevy’s small sample size creates uncertainty, but his early results suggest significant upside. His youth and inexperience could work against him in a hostile road environment, but his recent performance indicates readiness for this stage.

Betting Analysis & Value Opportunities

The current betting landscape presents intriguing value propositions for savvy bettors. NBC Sports Bet leans toward the Chicago Cubs at +1.5 on the spread, suggesting the underdog role provides attractive odds despite their division-leading status.

Historical trends favor offensive production in this matchup. The Cubs have stayed Under their first-five team total in 28 of their last 41 games at home, but this contest takes place in St. Louis, where different dynamics apply.

The total sits around 9.0-9.5 runs, and several factors support the Over. Both teams have shown offensive capability recently, with the Cardinals’ Monday explosion and the Cubs’ power-hitting prowess creating a recipe for runs. Additionally, McGreevy’s inexperience and Taillon’s recent struggles suggest both starters could face challenges.

Moneyline value appears to favor the Cardinals as slight home underdogs. Their recent hot streak, combined with home-field advantage and favorable pitching matchup, creates an appealing betting proposition at plus odds.

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Weather and External Factors

Busch Stadium’s dimensions and environmental conditions could influence scoring. The venue’s reputation as a pitcher-friendly park might suppress totals, but recent offensive performances by both teams suggest this factor may be overrated in current conditions.

The 7:45 ET start time provides ideal conditions for both teams, eliminating weather-related concerns that could impact gameplay or scoring.

Insights

Will the Cubs’ recent struggles continue against St. Louis?

Chicago’s 1-4 stretch appears more anomalous than indicative of deeper issues. Their underlying metrics remain strong, and facing a young pitcher like McGreevy could provide the offensive spark needed to break out of their mini-slump.

Can Michael McGreevy handle the pressure of facing the division leaders?

McGreevy’s limited MLB experience creates uncertainty, but his recent performances suggest maturity beyond his years. The Cardinals’ offensive support should provide cushion if he encounters early trouble.

Does the Cardinals’ hot streak represent sustainable improvement or temporary variance?

St. Louis’s recent success appears driven by improved offensive production rather than unsustainable factors. Their depth and improved chemistry suggest this performance level could continue.

Which team offers better betting value in this matchup?

The Cardinals present superior value as home underdogs, particularly given their recent form and the Cubs’ road struggles. The plus odds provide attractive risk-reward ratios.

Should bettors target the total in this game?

The Over appears attractive given both teams’ recent offensive production and questions surrounding both starting pitchers. The 9.0-9.5 run total seems conservative considering recent trends.

How important is this game for NL Central positioning?

While still early in the season, this contest could establish momentum for the second half. The Cardinals need to continue their surge to maintain playoff relevance, while the Cubs seek to reassert their division dominance.

Final Prediction

Score Prediction: Cubs 6, Cardinals 5

Total Prediction: Over 9.5 runs

Win Probabilities: Cubs 54%, Cardinals 46%

Best Bet: Cardinals moneyline (+odds) and Over 9.5 runs

The Cardinals’ recent surge, combined with home-field advantage and favorable pitching matchup, creates compelling betting value. While the Cubs remain the superior team long-term, short-term momentum favors St. Louis in what should be a high-scoring affair between two motivated NL Central competitors.

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