Blue Jays vs Rays expert prediction, picks & odds

The Arizona Diamondbacks (26-25) and St. Louis Cardinals (28-23) conclude their interleague series this Sunday at State Farm Stadium in what promises to be a compelling matchup between two teams heading in different directions. With the Cardinals holding a 2-1 series advantage after Friday’s victory, Arizona desperately needs a strong performance to salvage the finale and regain momentum.

Pitching Matchup: Experience vs. Potential

The Sunday afternoon showdown features an intriguing pitching duel between Arizona’s Brandon Pfaadt (7-3, 3.81 ERA) and St. Louis veteran Sonny Gray (5-1, 4.02 ERA). Both right-handers enter this contest making their 11th starts of the 2025 campaign, but their recent trajectories tell different stories.

Pfaadt has emerged as a reliable arm in the Diamondbacks rotation, though his historical struggles against St. Louis remain concerning. The young hurler carries a troubling 6.35 ERA across 11.1 innings against the Cardinals, including his most recent outing in St. Louis where he surrendered two earned runs over 5.1 frames. Despite striking out four batters in that previous encounter, Pfaadt’s command issues against Cardinals hitters suggest potential vulnerability.

Gray, the seasoned 35-year-old veteran, brings stability and playoff experience to the mound for St. Louis. His impressive 5-1 record speaks to his ability to keep his team competitive, even when his 4.02 ERA suggests he’s been somewhat fortunate. Gray’s limited history against Arizona—just one career start resulting in two earned runs over 6.1 innings while with Oakland—provides minimal insight into Sunday’s potential outcome.

Offensive Dynamics and Recent Form

Arizona’s offensive struggles have become increasingly problematic, managing three runs or fewer in four of their last five contests. This concerning trend has coincided with their current three-game losing streak, highlighting the team’s inability to generate consistent run production when needed most. Ketel Marte and Gabriel Moreno provided bright spots in Friday’s defeat with solo home runs, but the lack of sustained offensive pressure has plagued the Diamondbacks throughout this series.

The Cardinals’ offensive approach has been similarly inconsistent, failing to exceed four runs in five of their previous six games. However, their explosive 11-run outburst against Detroit earlier this week demonstrates their capability for sudden offensive eruptions. Nolan Arenado’s clutch triple with bases loaded in Friday’s sixth-inning rally exemplifies the type of situational hitting that has defined St. Louis during crucial moments this season.

Center fielder Victory Scott II’s two-run performance in the series opener showcased the Cardinals’ depth and ability to generate offense from unexpected sources. This balanced scoring approach has helped St. Louis maintain their second-place position in the competitive NL Central division.

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Defensive Considerations and Injury Reports

The Diamondbacks continue dealing with roster limitations as catcher Del Castillo remains sidelined with a shoulder injury. This absence has forced Arizona to rely heavily on Gabriel Moreno behind the plate, potentially affecting their defensive alignment and pitch-calling strategies throughout the series.

St. Louis enters Sunday’s contest with a clean injury report, providing manager Oliver Marmol with full roster flexibility for the series finale. This health advantage could prove crucial in a close game where bench depth and late-game substitutions often determine outcomes.

Recent Pitching Performance Analysis

Arizona’s pitching staff has shown concerning vulnerability, allowing four or more runs in three of their last four games. This trend continued in Friday’s defeat when starter Zac Gallen surrendered four earned runs over 5.2 innings, marking his sixth loss of the season. While the bullpen provided solid relief work after Gallen’s departure, the rotation’s inability to provide consistent quality starts has put additional pressure on both the offense and relief corps.

Cardinals pitching has exhibited similar inconsistency, permitting four or more runs in three of their previous four contests. However, Miles Mikolas’s strong six-inning performance in Friday’s victory—limiting Arizona to one earned run on four hits—demonstrates the potential for St. Louis starters to dominate when executing their game plan effectively.

Weather and Stadium Factors

State Farm Stadium’s retractable roof eliminates weather concerns for Sunday’s afternoon contest, ensuring optimal playing conditions for both teams. The venue’s dimensions and artificial surface tend to favor offensive production, particularly during day games when visibility and ball carry can enhance hitting conditions.

Arizona’s home-field advantage becomes particularly relevant given their recent struggles on the road. Playing in familiar surroundings with supportive home crowds could provide the psychological boost needed to break their current losing streak and salvage the series finale.

Key Statistical Trends

Several important statistical patterns emerge when analyzing this matchup. The Cardinals have demonstrated superior clutch hitting throughout the series, converting key opportunities with runners in scoring position. Their ability to manufacture runs during crucial innings has been the difference-maker in tight games.

Arizona’s power potential remains their most dangerous offensive weapon, with Marte and Moreno capable of changing game dynamics with single swings. However, their recent struggles with runners in scoring position have prevented them from capitalizing on scoring opportunities when they arise.

Both teams’ bullpen usage in Friday’s contest could impact Sunday’s game planning, as managers may need to rely on different relief options depending on their starters’ effectiveness and pitch counts.

Insights

How significant is Brandon Pfaadt’s historical struggle against the Cardinals?

Pfaadt’s 6.35 ERA against St. Louis in limited sample size suggests potential vulnerability, but his overall season performance (7-3, 3.81 ERA) indicates he’s capable of overcoming past struggles. Young pitchers often improve against familiar opponents as they gain experience and adjust their approach.

Can Arizona’s offense break out of their recent slump at home?

Playing at State Farm Stadium provides advantages through familiarity and fan support, but Arizona’s offensive struggles run deeper than venue-related factors. Their inability to score consistently with runners in scoring position has been their primary limitation regardless of location.

What makes Sonny Gray effective despite his elevated ERA?

Gray’s 5-1 record with a 4.02 ERA suggests strong run support and situational pitching ability. Veteran pitchers like Gray often excel at limiting damage during crucial innings, preventing big innings that typically correlate with losses.

How important is St. Louis’s series momentum heading into the finale?

Psychological momentum in baseball series can be significant, particularly when one team has dominated key situations. The Cardinals’ clutch hitting and timely pitching adjustments have established a confidence advantage that could carry into Sunday’s deciding game.

Which bullpen holds the advantage for late-game situations?

Both teams showed solid relief pitching in Friday’s contest, but workload management becomes crucial in series finales. The team that can deploy their best relievers in optimal situations typically gains a significant advantage in close games.

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