Mets vs Red Sox expert prediction, picks & odds

Fenway Showdown: Mets Look to Avoid Sweep Against Surging Red Sox

The New York Mets and Boston Red Sox conclude their three-game interleague series Wednesday night at historic Fenway Park, with Boston aiming for a clean sweep after taking the first two contests. This high-stakes matchup features a pitching duel between the Mets’ Tylor Megill and the Red Sox’s standout starter Garrett Crochet, whose 2.00 ERA ranks among the American League’s best.

The once-hot Mets have cooled considerably, dropping five of their last six games while scoring just three total runs in their first two losses at Fenway. Meanwhile, Boston has found their rhythm after a rough patch, winning three of their last four to even their season record at 25-25. With the Mets desperate to salvage the finale and Boston looking to continue their dominance in this matchup, Wednesday’s contest promises compelling baseball action.

New York Mets: Offensive Struggles Overshadow Strong Pitching

The Mets’ recent offensive drought has become increasingly concerning for a team that entered May as one of the National League’s most formidable contenders. Currently sitting at 29-20 and second in the NL East, New York has watched their bats go silent at the worst possible time. After scoring just one run in Monday’s opener and being shut out in Tuesday’s 2-0 defeat, the Mets’ offense appears completely out of sync.

Despite collecting four hits in Tuesday’s loss, the Mets couldn’t string together productive at-bats when needed. Juan Soto provided one of the few bright spots, going 1-for-3 with a walk, continuing his consistent production even during the team’s slump. The pitching staff has done its part—Tuesday’s starter Holmes delivered six solid innings, allowing just two runs—but hasn’t received adequate run support.

New York’s overall pitching numbers remain exceptional. Their 2.86 ERA leads the majors, complemented by a respectable 1.26 WHIP and .229 opponent batting average. The offensive statistics tell a different story, however, as their .245 batting average and .328 on-base percentage haven’t translated to recent run production.

Tylor Megill takes the mound for the Mets, bringing a 3-4 record with a 3.74 ERA and 1.38 WHIP across 43.1 innings. Megill faces significant pressure to break his concerning pattern of allowing exactly four earned runs in each of his last three starts. If the Mets hope to avoid the sweep, they’ll need Megill at his best against a Boston lineup that’s found timely hitting in this series.

Boston Red Sox: Homegrown Power Fueling Recent Success

The Red Sox continue to protect their home turf effectively, improving to 14-11 at Fenway Park after Tuesday’s 2-0 victory. Boston’s offensive approach has been opportunistic rather than overwhelming in this series, capitalizing on limited scoring chances while relying on excellent pitching.

Tuesday’s win exemplified Boston’s current formula for success: timely power hitting coupled with stellar pitching. Rafael Devers and Narvaez each connected for solo home runs in the fifth inning, providing all the offense necessary behind combined shutout pitching from Walker Buehler (before his ejection), Whitlock, and Chapman, who secured the save.

Boston’s statistics reveal a team finding balance as the season progresses. Their pitching staff holds a 4.01 ERA with a 1.33 WHIP and .256 opponent batting average—not dominant but certainly competitive. Offensively, they’ve outperformed the Mets recently, having scored 239 runs with a .253 batting average and .325 on-base percentage.

The acquisition of Alex Bregman has paid immediate dividends for Boston, as he leads the team with 11 home runs and 35 RBIs. Rookie sensation Wilyer Abreu has been equally impressive, matching Bregman’s 11 homers while driving in 27 runs.

Garrett Crochet gets the start for Boston, bringing an impressive 4-3 record with a sparkling 2.00 ERA and 1.06 WHIP across 63.0 innings. Crochet has been remarkably consistent, allowing two earned runs or fewer in four consecutive starts, and presents a formidable challenge for the slumping Mets lineup.

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Statistical Trends Favor Boston in Series Finale

The historical and recent trends heavily favor Boston in this matchup:

• The Red Sox have dominated this head-to-head series recently, winning their last eight games against the Mets following a victory

• New York has struggled significantly in night games against American League opponents, losing their last five such contests

• The Mets’ struggles at Fenway Park are particularly notable—they’ve failed to cover the run line in their last seven games at Boston’s historic venue

• Boston has established early advantages against the Mets, winning the first inning in each of their last three games as favorites and leading after three innings in four of their last five night games against New York at Fenway

These patterns suggest Boston holds a significant psychological edge heading into Wednesday’s finale, particularly with their ability to establish early leads and control the game’s pace.

Total Runs Analysis: Under Trend Remains Strong

For those interested in the total runs market, several compelling trends emerge:

• Nine of the Mets’ last ten games as road underdogs have stayed UNDER the total runs line

• Four of the last five Mets-Red Sox contests at Fenway Park have finished UNDER the total

• First-inning scoring patterns have been mixed: the “Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs” market has hit in eight of the Mets’ last nine games as road underdogs against AL teams, yet the “Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs” has been successful in five of the last six Mets-Red Sox games at Fenway

With two quality starting pitchers taking the mound and the Mets’ continued offensive struggles, the UNDER remains an attractive option for Wednesday’s matchup.

Player Proposition Opportunities Worth Considering

Several player-specific trends offer intriguing wagering opportunities:

Boston Red Sox Players:

• Rafael Devers has homered in three of Boston’s last four home games against NL East teams and scored at least one run in their last six home games against winning NL opponents

• Alex Bregman has recorded doubles in three of his last four appearances against winning NL East teams

• Trevor Story has been remarkably consistent, recording at least one hit in his last 11 night games against winning NL East opponents and singles in his last six night games against winning NL teams

• Triston Casas has driven in at least one run in each of his last four home games against NL East opponents

New York Mets Players:

• Juan Soto has homered in three of his last seven appearances as a road underdog against AL East teams and scored at least one run in four of his last five games as an underdog against the AL East

• Tyrone Taylor has recorded doubles in three of his last four games with the Mets as road underdogs

• Francisco Lindor has at least one RBI in four of the Mets’ last five games as underdogs against AL East opponents and recorded hits in his last eight appearances as an underdog against Boston

• Jeff McNeil has recorded at least one single in seven of his last eight road appearances against the Red Sox

• Tylor Megill has recorded six or more strikeouts in three of his last four night games

Expert Prediction: Red Sox Complete the Sweep

After analyzing both teams’ recent performance, pitching matchups, and relevant trends, Boston appears well-positioned to complete the sweep against New York. The combination of Crochet’s dominant pitching and the Mets’ continued offensive woes creates a significant advantage for the home team.

Megill’s recent pattern of allowing four earned runs per start is particularly concerning against a Boston lineup that has demonstrated timely power hitting. While New York’s overall pitching remains strong, their inability to generate consistent offense—having scored two or fewer runs in four of their last five games—severely limits their winning chances.

Final Prediction: Boston Red Sox 3, New York Mets 1

The Red Sox extend their winning streak against the Mets to nine consecutive games following a victory, while New York’s road struggles continue as they fall to 12-16 away from home.

Mets vs Red Sox Insights

Why has Boston dominated the Mets so thoroughly at Fenway Park?

Boston’s familiarity with Fenway’s unique dimensions provides a significant home-field advantage that the Mets encounter infrequently. The Green Monster in left field requires defensive adjustments that NL East teams rarely practice, while Red Sox hitters have mastered the park’s quirks. Additionally, Boston’s pitchers effectively utilize the park’s deep center field and challenging right field corner to neutralize New York’s left-handed power.

Can the Mets overcome their offensive slump against an elite pitcher like Crochet?

The Mets face an uphill battle against Crochet, who has been one of the AL’s most effective starters. Their best approach would be patience at the plate to increase his pitch count, potentially forcing Boston to their bullpen earlier than desired. Juan Soto’s disciplined batting eye becomes crucial in this strategy, as working walks could create opportunities for the struggling offense. However, unless multiple Mets hitters make significant adjustments overnight, breaking through against Crochet appears unlikely.

Is Tylor Megill’s recent pattern of allowing exactly four earned runs per start a coincidence or a troubling trend?

This consistency in runs allowed suggests opposition teams have identified specific weaknesses in Megill’s approach or pitch selection. The pattern indicates batters are making adjustments the second and third time through the lineup, as Megill typically starts games effectively before encountering trouble in middle innings. Boston’s analytical approach will likely target these vulnerabilities, making it essential for Megill to vary his sequencing and perhaps rely more heavily on secondary pitches to disrupt the Red Sox’s timing.

Which player proposition bet offers the best value in this matchup?

Rafael Devers’ home run potential against NL East opponents stands out among the available player props. Having homered in three of Boston’s last four home games against NL East teams and coming off a home run in Tuesday’s contest, Devers appears locked in at the plate. His left-handed power swing perfectly suits Fenway’s dimensions against a right-handed pitcher like Megill who has surrendered multiple home runs in recent starts.

How significant is Boston’s trend of winning the first inning against the Mets?

This trend reveals Boston’s superior pre-game preparation and aggressive early-inning approach against New York. The Red Sox coaching staff has effectively scouted Mets starters’ first-inning tendencies, allowing Boston hitters to attack specific pitches or locations. For bettors, this creates value in first-inning markets, particularly considering Boston has won the first inning in each of their last three games as favorites against the Mets and has established early leads consistently in this matchup.

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