Cubs vs Marlins expert prediction, picks & odds
Cubs Look to Rebound After Bullpen Collapse in Series Opener
The Chicago Cubs (28-20) will attempt to bounce back on Tuesday evening when they face the surging Miami Marlins (19-27) for the second contest of their four-game series at LoanDepot Park. After seeing their three-game winning streak snapped in heartbreaking fashion Monday night, the NL Central leaders find themselves searching for answers against a Marlins squad that’s suddenly found its stride.
Monday’s series opener featured late-inning drama that saw the Cubs surrender a ninth-inning lead, with reliever Daniel Palencia failing to protect what should have been a comfortable advantage. The meltdown wasted a career performance from catcher Miguel Amaya, who drove in five runs on a 2-for-3 night that included both a double and a home run.
“When you get that type of production from the bottom of your lineup, you expect to win those games,” Cubs manager Craig Counsell told reporters postgame. “Our bullpen has been reliable most of the season, but tonight we just couldn’t execute in the big moments.”
Pitching Matchup Analysis: Taillon vs. Weathers
Chicago turns to veteran right-hander Jameson Taillon (2-3, 4.53 ERA) to stop the bleeding. Taillon brings consistency to the mound with his impressive 1.11 WHIP, which ranks 11th among qualified National League pitchers. However, recent history doesn’t favor the Cubs’ starter – Taillon took the loss in his last outing against these same Marlins, surrendering three runs across six innings despite recording a season-high seven strikeouts.
Taillon’s career numbers suggest reliability rather than dominance. The 33-year-old has compiled a respectable 73-56 record with a 3.92 ERA across 1,157 innings pitched for Pittsburgh, New York (Yankees), and Chicago. His command has remained a strength, as evidenced by his ability to limit free passes with just 2.1 walks per nine innings this season.
Miami counters with left-hander Ryan Weathers, who missed the beginning of the 2025 campaign with a flexor muscle strain but made an immediate impact in his season debut against these Cubs last week. Weathers silenced one of baseball’s most potent offenses, allowing just two hits and one run over five efficient innings to secure the victory.
“Getting Weathers back healthy gives our rotation a completely different look,” Marlins skipper Skip Schumaker said. “He was attacking the zone with confidence, and that’s exactly what we need from him moving forward.”
Weathers, acquired from San Diego at the 2023 trade deadline, brings a career 5.01 ERA into Tuesday’s contest. However, his impressive 2025 debut suggests the 25-year-old southpaw may be ready to turn a corner in his development.
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Offensive Momentum Favors Miami
The Marlins enter Tuesday’s matchup riding high after their dramatic walk-off victory, improving to 4-1 over their last five games. Jesus Sanchez emerged as Monday’s hero, going 3-for-5 with a double, home run, and four RBIs – including the game-winning two-run double with two outs in the ninth.
Miami’s recent offensive resurgence has been spearheaded by Sanchez, who has raised his batting average 31 points over the past week. The outfielder’s improved plate discipline has translated to more consistent contact, giving the Marlins’ lineup much-needed protection behind Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Luis Arraez.
The Cubs, meanwhile, continue to receive stellar production from unexpected sources. Miguel Amaya’s breakout performance Monday boosted his season OPS to an impressive .852, providing Chicago with exceptional offensive output from the catching position.
However, the team’s generally reliable bullpen showed cracks after starter Ben Brown struggled through 4.2 innings, allowing six runs and inflating his ERA to a concerning 5.44.
Key Injury Concerns Impacting Both Clubs
The Cubs continue navigating a significant injury situation, particularly in their pitching staff. Four hurlers remain on the 60-day injured list, including projected ace Justin Steele (elbow/forearm) and reliable starter Javier Assad (oblique). The team received more concerning news Monday as left fielder Ian Happ landed on the 10-day IL with an oblique strain, potentially depleting their outfield depth for the remainder of this road trip.
Miami’s injury report features equally concerning names, with promising young starter Eury Perez sidelined for the season after Tommy John surgery. Left-handers Andrew Nardi and Braxton Garrett remain on the 60-day IL with elbow issues, significantly thinning Miami’s pitching options. The Marlins are also managing position player absences, with shortstop Xavier Edwards (back) and center fielder Dane Myers (oblique) working toward returns.
Betting Analysis and Prediction
Despite holding a significantly better overall record, the Cubs face a challenging matchup against a Marlins team that appears to have found their stride. The pitching matchup slightly favors Miami, as Weathers already demonstrated his ability to neutralize Chicago’s lineup in their previous meeting. Additionally, Taillon has shown vulnerability against Miami’s suddenly resurgent offense.
The weather forecast calls for typical South Florida conditions – 82 degrees with moderate humidity and minimal wind – suggesting no significant environmental factors impacting the game outcome. With both bullpens taxed from Monday’s high-scoring affair, starters who can work efficiently into the middle innings will prove particularly valuable.
Prediction: The Marlins continue their upward trajectory with a 5-3 victory, capitalizing on their recent momentum and home-field advantage. Look for Weathers to deliver another quality start while the Miami offense provides just enough support to secure consecutive wins against the NL Central leaders.
Best Bet: Marlins moneyline (+115) Value Play: Under 8 total runs (-110)
Expert Insights
Will the Cubs’ bullpen struggles continue against Miami?
The Cubs’ relief corps had been a surprising strength this season prior to Monday’s collapse. Their collective 3.48 ERA ranks fifth in the National League, suggesting the ninth-inning meltdown was likely an anomaly rather than a developing trend. Expect Counsell to avoid using Palencia in high-leverage situations Tuesday after throwing 27 pitches Monday.
Is Ryan Weathers’ impressive season debut sustainable?
Weathers has traditionally struggled with consistency throughout his career, but mechanical adjustments during his injury rehabilitation appear promising. His improved arm angle generated more horizontal movement on his slider against Chicago last week, inducing weak contact and keeping hitters off-balance. While expecting another dominant performance might be ambitious, the southpaw has clearly turned a corner in his development.
How significant is Ian Happ’s absence from the Cubs lineup?
Extremely significant. Happ’s .378 on-base percentage and left-handed power bat create balance in Chicago’s predominantly right-handed lineup. His absence forces Mike Tauchman into everyday action and substantially weakens the Cubs’ offensive potential against right-handed pitching. Monitor Happ’s recovery timeline closely, as prolonged absence could dramatically impact Chicago’s offensive output.
Can Jesus Sanchez maintain his recent hot streak?
Sanchez has historically been a streaky hitter, but analytical indicators suggest his current performance isn’t merely luck-driven. His hard-hit percentage has increased from 37.2% to 43.8% over the past two weeks, and his chase rate on pitches outside the zone has decreased by nearly 7%. These fundamental improvements indicate his production boost may be sustainable.
Which team has the edge if this becomes a battle of bullpens?
Despite Monday’s implosion, Chicago holds a distinct advantage in relief pitching depth. The Cubs’ bullpen features five relievers with ERAs under 3.50, while Miami has struggled to find consistent late-inning options beyond closer Tanner Scott. If both starters exit before the sixth inning, the advantage shifts decidedly toward Chicago.
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