Reds vs Pirates expert prediction, picks & odds
NL Central Clash: Reds Aim to Gain Ground as Pirates Struggle to Find Form
The Cincinnati Reds (24-24) head to PNC Park to face the Pittsburgh Pirates (15-32) in an NL Central divisional matchup that features two teams on distinctly different trajectories. The .500 Reds are staying competitive in the division race, while the Pirates continue to sink further into the basement with the worst record in the National League.
This matchup pits southpaw Nick Lodolo against Pittsburgh’s ace Mitch Keller in what could be a crucial game for both teams’ momentum. Despite similar recent struggles from both starters, the underlying metrics and offensive support create an intriguing betting landscape for this divisional clash.
Cincinnati’s Balanced Attack Tests Pittsburgh’s Pitching Depth
The Cincinnati Reds have established themselves as a middle-of-the-pack offensive team, ranking 13th in MLB with a .715 team OPS while generating 4.58 runs per game. Their power numbers have kept them competitive, as they’re tied for 10th in the majors with 53 home runs, matching the output of the contending Baltimore Orioles.
Electrifying shortstop Elly De La Cruz continues to be the catalyst for Cincinnati’s offense, posting a .246/.317/.406 slash line with eight homers and 31 RBIs. What sets De La Cruz apart is his exceptional speed, having already swiped 16 bases on 20 attempts. His combination of power and speed creates matchup problems for any opposing pitcher.
The Reds will need to overcome significant injury challenges, however, as they’re missing key contributors including Jake Fraley, Hunter Greene, and Jeimer Candelario. The absence of Christian Encarnacion-Strand has particularly impacted their lineup depth, forcing Cincinnati to rely more heavily on their core performers.
Against a struggling Pirates staff that ranks in the bottom third of MLB with a 4.52 team ERA, the Reds have a prime opportunity to build offensive momentum in this series opener.
Pirates’ Offensive Woes Continue Despite Promising Young Core
Pittsburgh’s offensive struggles have reached historic proportions, as they currently rank dead last in MLB with a dismal .217/.297/.322 team slash line. Their anemic production of just 3.0 runs per game explains much of their position in the standings, despite occasional flashes of potential from their young roster.
One bright spot has been their aggression on the basepaths, with Pittsburgh tied for fifth in MLB with 49 stolen bases. This element of their game has kept them competitive in some close contests, though it hasn’t been enough to overcome their power deficiency (just 28 home runs, ranking 29th in MLB).
Franchise cornerstone Ke’Bryan Hayes continues to underperform at the plate with a .250/.301/.311 slash line, managing just one home run through 47 games. While his elite defense remains a constant, Hayes’ inability to drive the ball with authority has limited Pittsburgh’s offensive ceiling. His five steals in six attempts demonstrate his athleticism, but the Pirates need more from their highest-paid position player.
The Pirates enter this series having lost seven of their last ten games, with their pitching staff showing signs of fatigue as the season approaches the quarter mark.
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Pitching Matchup Analysis: Lodolo vs. Keller
Nick Lodolo (2-4, 4.78 ERA)
Lodolo returns to the mound looking to bounce back from a disappointing outing against the White Sox where he surrendered three runs over 5.1 innings. His advanced metrics paint a concerning picture, as he ranks in just the 30th percentile in whiff rate and 31st in strikeout percentage according to Baseball Savant.
The left-hander’s pitch arsenal comprises four offerings, but his sinker has become particularly vulnerable, with opponents batting .356 with a .444 slugging percentage against it. This vulnerability could be exploited by Pittsburgh’s right-handed hitters, though their overall offensive struggles might mitigate this advantage.
Historically, Lodolo has performed adequately against the Pirates, going 1-1 with a 4.63 ERA in 11.2 innings last season, while impressively striking out 17 batters. His ability to miss bats against this lineup provides reason for optimism despite his recent form.
Mitch Keller (2-5, 3.86 ERA)
Pittsburgh’s ace has battled inconsistency throughout 2025 despite flashes of the All-Star form he showed in previous seasons. Keller is coming off a quality start against the Mets, where he pitched seven innings while allowing just two runs and striking out eight.
However, Keller’s underlying metrics raise red flags, as he ranks in the 12th percentile in expected batting average and 13th in whiff percentage. His six-pitch arsenal gives him options, with his sweeper emerging as his most effective weapon (.167 opponent batting average with 10 strikeouts).
Against Cincinnati last season, Keller struggled significantly, posting a 6.19 ERA across 16 innings in three starts. His control issues were particularly evident in these matchups, as he issued 10 walks against the Reds during those outings.
Weather and Ballpark Factors
PNC Park traditionally plays as a pitcher-friendly venue, ranking 24th in ESPN’s Park Factor for runs scored (0.931). However, evening games in late May can see increased carrying distance as temperatures rise and humidity builds along the river. Wednesday’s forecast calls for temperatures around 72°F at first pitch with light winds, creating neutral conditions that shouldn’t significantly advantage either pitching staff.
Key Betting Insights for Reds vs. Pirates
- Question? The Reds are only .500 – should I really back them on the road? Cincinnati has performed significantly better on the road (13-10) than at home (11-14) this season, showing unusual comfort in away ballparks. Their balanced approach travels well, especially against struggling pitching staffs.
- Question? How concerned should I be about Lodolo’s recent performances? While Lodolo’s metrics aren’t impressive, Pittsburgh’s league-worst offense provides an excellent opportunity for a bounce-back performance. The Pirates rank 30th with a .562 OPS against left-handed pitching this season.
- Question? Does Keller’s quality start against the Mets indicate he’s turning things around? Keller has shown flashes throughout the season but continues to struggle with consistency. His historical difficulties against Cincinnati (6.19 ERA) make this a challenging matchup despite his recent improvement.
- Question? How will injuries impact this matchup? Both teams are dealing with significant injuries, but Pittsburgh’s disabled list features more complementary pieces while Cincinnati is missing several core contributors. The Pirates’ lack of depth makes their injury situation more manageable in the short term.
- Question? Is the total of 8 runs appropriate given these offenses? Despite Pittsburgh’s struggles, Cincinnati’s consistent offensive production combined with both pitchers’ vulnerabilities makes the over an attractive option. Seven of the last nine meetings between these teams have gone over similar totals.
Final Prediction and Betting Recommendation
While both starting pitchers have shown vulnerabilities, Cincinnati’s superior offensive firepower gives them a significant edge in this matchup. The Reds’ ability to hit for power against Keller’s declining metrics creates a favorable scenario for the visitors.
Score Prediction: Reds 6, Pirates 3
Recommended Bets:
- Reds Moneyline (-135)
- Over 8 Total Runs (-110)
- Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110)
Remember to always gamble responsibly and consider these predictions as just one factor in your betting decision process. Line movements and late lineup changes could affect these projections.
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