Pirates vs Phillies expert prediction, picks & odds
Battle for Pennsylvania Intensifies: Pirates Face Uphill Battle Against Surging Phillies
The Keystone State rivalry continues Saturday evening as the struggling Pittsburgh Pirates (15-29, 5th in NL Central) travel to Citizens Bank Park to face the Philadelphia Phillies (25-18, 2nd in NL East) in the second game of their weekend series. With first pitch scheduled for 6:05 PM EST, this matchup features a stark contrast in momentum and firepower between these Pennsylvania clubs.
The pitching matchup pits Pittsburgh’s Carmen Mlodzinski (1-3, 5.20 ERA) against Philadelphia’s ace Zack Wheeler (4-1, 2.95 ERA) in what appears to be a significant mismatch on paper. Wheeler enters the contest with impressive recent form, while Mlodzinski has struggled to find consistency despite flashes of potential.
Pirates Offense Running Dry in May Drought
The Pirates arrive in Philadelphia desperate to regain their footing after dropping two of three against the Mets in Queens. Their brief success against Atlanta earlier this month has proven to be an anomaly rather than a turning point, as Pittsburgh has managed just three victories in their previous 13 contests.
The primary culprit behind Pittsburgh’s struggles has been their anemic offense, which ranks dead last in the National League with just 135 runs scored through 44 games. Their collective .220 batting average tells the story of a lineup that simply cannot generate consistent production. Even more concerning, the team has been playing without dynamic shortstop Oneil Cruz, sidelined since last Saturday with persistent back issues. Cruz leads the Pirates with eight home runs, 23 runs scored, and 16 stolen bases – production the team desperately needs.
Third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes represents one of the few bright spots in Pittsburgh’s lineup, leading the team with 40 hits and a .260 batting average. However, his plate discipline remains problematic with 31 strikeouts against just nine walks in 41 games. With such limited offensive support, Pirates pitchers have minimal margin for error.
Despite their offensive woes, Pittsburgh’s pitching has been surprisingly effective, ranking ninth in the National League with a respectable 4.01 team ERA. Their bullpen has contributed six wins and eight saves with a 4.17 ERA across 153.1 innings – numbers that would translate to more team success with adequate run support.
Mlodzinski Seeking Elusive Decision After Strong Outing
Carmen Mlodzinski makes his ninth start of the season Saturday, seeking his first decision in five outings despite improving performance. The right-hander’s last appearance was arguably his best this season, tossing 5.2 scoreless innings against the potent Braves lineup last Sunday, allowing just four hits and a walk.
Though his overall numbers don’t inspire confidence – opponents are hitting .300 against him with four home runs – Mlodzinski has shown signs of turning a corner with a 3.50 ERA over his last four starts. His career history against Philadelphia offers a glimmer of hope, as he’s posted an impressive 1.93 ERA in five relief appearances versus the Phillies, including one victory.
The 25-year-old will need to be particularly careful with his pitch location in the hitter-friendly confines of Citizens Bank Park, especially against Philadelphia’s power hitters who have punished mistakes throughout the season.
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Phillies Riding Strong Pitching During Recent Hot Streak
Philadelphia enters Saturday’s contest after splitting a doubleheader in St. Louis on Wednesday, but they’ve been one of the National League’s hottest teams, winning six of their last nine games. The Phillies’ success has been anchored by excellent pitching, evidenced by their 3.90 team ERA and 1.26 WHIP through 43 games.
The bullpen has been particularly impressive, accumulating 10 wins and 13 saves while striking out 149 batters across 141.2 innings. This reliable relief corps has provided manager Rob Thomson with numerous late-game options to protect leads.
Offensively, Philadelphia ranks fourth in the National League with a collective .257 batting average, having scored 202 runs (eighth in NL) through their first 43 games. Their attack features multiple dangerous hitters, with eight players recording at least 31 hits and four collecting 40 or more.
Shortstop Trea Turner continues to be a model of consistency, ranking seventh in the National League with 50 hits and eleventh with a .299 batting average. His current streak of reaching base in 18 of his last 19 games exemplifies his value atop the Phillies lineup.
The most fearsome presence in Philadelphia’s batting order remains Kyle Schwarber, whose 15 home runs tie him for the National League lead. The slugger has also driven in 33 runs (11th in NL) and scored 31 runs (9th overall), making him one of the league’s most productive offensive forces.
Wheeler Looking to Extend Dominant Stretch
Zack Wheeler takes the ball for his tenth start of the season and fourth at Citizens Bank Park, where he’s historically performed well. The veteran right-hander enters Saturday’s contest riding impressive momentum, having won his last two starts while allowing just two earned runs combined over 14 innings.
During this two-game stretch, Wheeler has been nearly untouchable, surrendering only seven hits and two walks while striking out 17 batters. His most recent outing marked the first time this season he didn’t allow a home run, potentially signaling even better things to come.
Wheeler’s overall numbers reflect his ace status – opponents are hitting a meager .200 against him, and he’s been stingy with free passes, issuing just 11 walks across his nine starts. His career performance against Pittsburgh provides further reason for optimism, as he’s gone 4-1 with a stellar 2.68 ERA in eight previous starts versus the Pirates.
Insights: Expert Analysis on Pirates-Phillies Showdown
Why has Pittsburgh’s offense struggled so significantly this season?
The Pirates’ offensive woes stem from multiple factors: inconsistent contact rates, lack of power outside of Cruz, poor plate discipline, and injuries to key contributors. Their .220 team batting average and league-worst run production reflect both bad luck and fundamental flaws in their approach.
Is Zack Wheeler pitching better now than during his Cy Young runner-up season?
Wheeler’s underlying metrics suggest he’s actually improved from his stellar 2023 campaign. His strikeout rate is up, he’s inducing more weak contact, and his command appears sharper. If he continues this trajectory, Wheeler could be positioning himself for another serious Cy Young push in 2025.
Can Carmen Mlodzinski build on his strong performance against Atlanta?
Mlodzinski’s scoreless outing against the Braves demonstrated the potential that made him a top prospect. His success hinges on command improvement, as his .300 batting average against reveals too many hittable pitches in dangerous zones. Against Philadelphia’s potent lineup, he’ll need pinpoint location to avoid damage.
What makes Citizens Bank Park particularly challenging for visiting pitchers?
Citizens Bank Park consistently ranks among MLB’s most hitter-friendly venues due to its compact dimensions, especially in right field where the wall stands just 330 feet from home plate. When combined with favorable hitting conditions and Philadelphia’s power-heavy lineup, visiting pitchers face a perfect storm of challenges.
How important is this series for the Pirates’ season trajectory?
With Pittsburgh already 14 games below .500 before June, this series represents a critical juncture. Falling further behind could trigger early trade discussions involving veterans, while a surprising series win might temporarily stave off selloff talks. For a rebuilding club, establishing competitive credibility against contenders holds significant organizational value.
Final Prediction: Phillies’ Momentum and Pitching Edge Prove Decisive
When analyzing this matchup comprehensively, Philadelphia holds substantial advantages in multiple areas. The pitching matchup heavily favors the Phillies with Wheeler’s excellence contrasting Mlodzinski’s inconsistency. Add Philadelphia’s superior offensive production and home-field advantage, and the path to victory appears clear for the hosts.
Look for Wheeler to continue his dominance while Philadelphia’s power bats capitalize on Mlodzinski’s tendency to allow hard contact. The Pirates will struggle to generate consistent offense against one of the league’s premier starters, resulting in a comfortable Phillies victory to continue their strong May performance.
Score Prediction: Phillies 5, Pirates 2 Recommended Bet: Phillies Run Line (-1.5)
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