Rockies vs. Diamondbacks Betting Preview: Rookie Palmquist Faces Burnes in NL West Showdown
The Colorado Rockies continue their challenging 2025 campaign with a visit to Chase Field, where they’ll face the Arizona Diamondbacks in a National League West division clash on Friday night. This intriguing pitching matchup features rookie southpaw Carson Palmquist making his MLB debut against former Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes. Let’s break down everything bettors need to know for this NL West showdown and provide our expert Rockies vs. Diamondbacks predictions.
Rockies Desperate for Revival as Rookie Palmquist Gets the Call
Colorado’s 2025 season has quickly transformed into a nightmare scenario. The Rockies enter this series with a dismal 7-36 record, including a brutal 1-11 stretch over their last dozen games. After being swept by the Rangers in their previous series—scoring just five runs across those three contests—Colorado faces an uphill battle against a Diamondbacks squad that has shown flashes of the form that took them deep into the 2023 postseason.
The most compelling storyline for Friday’s matchup is the major league debut of Carson Palmquist, Colorado’s highly-touted pitching prospect. According to MLB.com, the 24-year-old lefty ranks as the organization’s 9th overall prospect and their top left-handed pitching talent. Palmquist has impressed at Triple-A Albuquerque this season, recording 45 strikeouts across seven starts while maintaining a respectable 3.72 ERA and 1.13 WHIP.
The Rockies’ front office hopes Palmquist’s promotion will provide a spark for a pitching staff that has struggled mightily, carrying a collective 5.73 ERA and 1.59 WHIP into this series. Opposing hitters have feasted against Colorado arms, batting a robust .299 against them—the worst mark in Major League Baseball.
Colorado’s bullpen has shown occasional signs of competence with a 4.10 ERA, accounting for three of the team’s seven total victories. Reliever Tyler Kinley has been the most frequently used arm out of the pen with 18 appearances, though he’s surrendered 14 earned runs across 17 innings—a troubling 7.41 ERA that exemplifies the Rockies’ pitching woes.
Despite their overall struggles, the Rockies have received solid offensive contributions from Hunter Goodman, who leads the club with 44 hits, 25 RBIs, 22 runs, and a .291 batting average. The power department features a four-way tie at the top with Goodman, Michael Toglia, Ryan McMahon, and Jordan Beck each launching six home runs. One bright spot for Colorado fans: shortstop Ezequiel Tovar, sidelined since April 19th with a hip contusion, has begun a rehab assignment and should return to the lineup soon.
Diamondbacks Seeking Consistency Behind Burnes’ Dominance
Arizona enters this series with a 23-21 record, good for fourth place in the competitive NL West. The Diamondbacks have been the definition of inconsistency lately, alternating wins and losses over their last 12 games. They did manage to take two of three from the Giants in their most recent series, showing glimpses of the team that many expected to contend in 2025.
The D-backs will turn to Corbin Burnes (2-1, 2.95 ERA) for Friday’s opener. The right-hander has been outstanding recently, allowing one earned run or fewer in each of his last three starts. His most recent outing was particularly impressive—seven scoreless frames against the powerful Dodgers offense, permitting just five hits while striking out eight.
Burnes has faced the Rockies seven times in his career, posting a modest 1-1 record with a 5.24 ERA. While these numbers might raise some eyebrows, it’s worth noting that many of those outings came during his Milwaukee tenure and included appearances at the hitter-friendly Coors Field. At spacious Chase Field, Burnes should have a significant advantage against a Colorado lineup that has struggled to generate consistent offense away from their mile-high home park.
Arizona’s offense has been significantly more productive than Colorado’s, scoring 222 runs through 44 games (5.05 runs per game) compared to the Rockies’ paltry 138 runs in 43 games (3.21 runs per game). The Diamondbacks’ team batting average of .252 also far outpaces Colorado’s .216 mark.
Corbin Carroll continues his ascent as one of baseball’s brightest young stars, tied for the National League lead with 52 hits and ranking second with 14 home runs. Carroll, Geraldo Perdomo, and Eugenio Suarez have each driven in 31 runs, placing them tied for eighth in the league in that category. Meanwhile, Josh Naylor has provided consistent contact with a team-leading .299 batting average.
Ketel Marte has been heating up at the plate, launching two home runs in Wednesday’s victory over the Giants—his second multi-homer performance in the past seven games. This power surge could spell trouble for the rookie Palmquist in his major league debut.
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Betting Analysis and Predictions
The pitching matchup creates a fascinating dynamic for bettors to consider. On one hand, we have the established excellence of Burnes against one of baseball’s weakest lineups. On the other, we have the complete unknown of Palmquist making his MLB debut against a dangerous Diamondbacks offense.
While rookie pitchers occasionally surprise in their debuts due to unfamiliarity, the overall team context cannot be ignored. Colorado’s 7-36 record speaks volumes about their struggles across all facets of the game, and they’ve been particularly vulnerable on the road.
Arizona opened as a -225 favorite with the total set at 8.5 runs. Given Burnes’ recent form and Colorado’s offensive woes, backing the Diamondbacks on the run line (-1.5) at -110 offers better value than the prohibitive moneyline price. The under also appears attractive considering Burnes’ dominance and the uncertainty surrounding Palmquist’s debut performance.
Prediction: Diamondbacks 6, Rockies 2
Best Bet: Diamondbacks -1.5 runs (-110)
Total Recommendation: Under 8.5 runs (-105)
Key Matchup Factors to Consider
When evaluating this contest, several factors stand out beyond the basic team statistics:
- Chase Field Environment – While historically known as a hitter-friendly park, Chase Field has played more neutral since the installation of the humidor. This benefits a skilled pitcher like Burnes who thrives on movement and command.
- Debut Jitters – No matter how talented, rookie pitchers often experience nerves in their MLB debuts. Expect the Diamondbacks to employ a patient approach against Palmquist, potentially driving up his pitch count early.
- Bullpen Disparity – If Palmquist delivers a short outing, Colorado’s overworked and underperforming bullpen will be exposed against Arizona’s potent lineup.
- Home/Road Splits – The Rockies have been historically one of baseball’s worst road teams, and 2025 has been no exception with just two victories away from Coors Field.
- Momentum Factor – Arizona enters with the confidence boost of winning their recent series against the Giants, while Colorado remains mired in a devastating slump.
Expert Insights
Is Carson Palmquist worth a flier in DFS contests?
While there’s always intrigue with rookie pitchers, I’d advise caution with Palmquist in his debut. The Diamondbacks have multiple left-handed power threats who match up well against southpaws, and Chase Field isn’t forgiving to pitchers who miss their spots. Save your DFS exposure for a more favorable matchup.
How has Corbin Burnes performed against current Rockies hitters?
The sample size is limited, but Ryan McMahon has had surprising success against Burnes, going 5-for-12 with two doubles. However, most of Colorado’s current roster lacks extensive history against him, which typically favors the pitcher, especially one of Burnes’ caliber.
What’s the best approach for live betting this matchup?
Watch Palmquist’s first inning closely. If he shows command issues or appears overwhelmed, consider an aggressive play on Arizona’s team total over or first five innings spread. Conversely, if he navigates the early innings successfully, the under becomes increasingly valuable as the game progresses.
Should bettors be concerned about Arizona’s inconsistency?
The Diamondbacks’ pattern of alternating wins and losses is certainly unusual, but patterns like these eventually break. With the significant talent disparity in this matchup and Burnes on the mound, this represents an excellent spot for Arizona to begin building momentum with consecutive victories.
How might Tovar’s potential return impact the betting lines?
While Tovar’s rehabilitation is progressing well, he’s unlikely to rejoin the Rockies for Friday’s series opener. His eventual return will provide defensive stability at shortstop and some offensive upside, but isn’t significant enough to dramatically shift betting lines for a team with Colorado’s comprehensive struggles.
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