Cubs vs Pirates Prediction: Skenes vs Rea Pitching Duel at PNC Park 

Current Team Standings and Recent Performance

The NL Central race has been surprisingly competitive in the early 2025 season, with the Chicago Cubs (18-13) currently holding the division lead despite recent struggles. The Cubs have dropped three of their last four contests, including yesterday’s narrow 4-3 defeat to these same Pirates. Chicago started the season with impressive offensive production, currently ranking among the league leaders with 184 runs scored.

Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Pirates (12-19) have been battling inconsistency all season, currently sitting at the bottom of the NL Central standings. Despite their overall record, Pittsburgh has shown signs of life at PNC Park, where they’ve managed to split the first two games of this current series against Chicago. The Pirates’ offensive struggles continue to be their primary concern, having generated just 106 runs this season with a collective .226 batting average.

This Thursday afternoon matchup features an intriguing pitching duel that could significantly impact the betting landscape. Let’s break down both teams and analyze where the betting value lies.

Chicago Cubs Analysis: Offensive Firepower Meets Pitching Questions

Chicago’s offense has been their saving grace this season, posting a robust .263 team batting average with a .341 on-base percentage. Their production has been anchored by newcomer Kyle Tucker, who leads the team with seven home runs and 27 RBIs through 31 games. Equally impressive has been Seiya Suzuki, contributing seven homers and 25 RBIs of his own.

The Cubs’ performance in yesterday’s 4-3 loss highlighted both their offensive capabilities and late-inning vulnerabilities. Chicago grabbed an early 3-2 lead through five innings before surrendering two crucial runs in the seventh. Ian Happ and Kyle Tucker each drove in a run, continuing their consistent production.

On the mound, Chicago sends right-hander Colin Rea (1-0, 0.96 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) for his fourth start of the season. Rea has been remarkably effective in limited action, allowing just two earned runs across 18.2 innings pitched. However, the concern remains his inability to work deep into games, having reached the fifth inning just once in his three starts. This could put significant pressure on a Cubs bullpen that has shown inconsistency in recent outings.

Pittsburgh Pirates Analysis: Skenes Leads Rotation Revival

The Pirates’ struggles have been well-documented this season, but their pitching staff has shown surprising resilience. Pittsburgh arms have posted a respectable 4.11 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP, keeping them competitive despite offensive limitations. Their collective .238 opponent batting average ranks among the better marks in the National League.

Pittsburgh will send their emerging ace, Paul Skenes (3-2, 2.39 ERA, 0.80 WHIP), to the mound for this crucial divisional matchup. The young right-hander has been a revelation, allowing two earned runs or fewer in three consecutive starts while displaying impressive command with his 0.80 WHIP across 37.2 innings. Skenes has been particularly effective at PNC Park, where his power arsenal plays well to the spacious gaps.

Offensively, the Pirates continue to rely heavily on Oneil Cruz (eight home runs, 16 RBIs) and veteran Bryan Reynolds (three home runs, 14 RBIs). Reynolds has been particularly effective against the Cubs, recording at least one hit in 11 straight games when Pittsburgh is favored against Chicago. Andrew McCutchen’s clutch two-RBI performance yesterday highlighted his continued importance to this lineup, especially in home games.

Key Betting Trends and Statistics

When examining the betting landscape for this matchup, several trends emerge that could inform wager decisions:

Cubs Trends:

• Chicago has won their last six games as road underdogs against Pittsburgh

• The Cubs have covered the run line in nine consecutive games as road underdogs against NL opponents following a road loss

• Chicago has consistently led after five innings in their last five games against teams with losing records

• The “Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs” market has hit in six straight Cubs games as road underdogs

Pirates Trends:

• The home team has won three of Pittsburgh’s last four games

• Pittsburgh has covered the run line in four of their last five day games against Chicago at PNC Park following a win

• The Pirates have lost seven straight games against the Cubs following a home win

• The “Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs” market has hit in 11 of Pittsburgh’s last 13 games as favorites against NL Central opponents

Total Runs Considerations:

• Each of Pittsburgh’s last five day games against NL Central opponents have gone UNDER

• All four of Chicago’s most recent games as underdogs against NL opponents have gone OVER

• The pitching matchup suggests a low-scoring affair, but Chicago’s offensive production contradicts this expectation

Player Performance Projections

Several key players have established noteworthy patterns that merit consideration for prop bettors:

Pirates Players to Watch:

• Bryan Reynolds has recorded at least one RBI in six of Pittsburgh’s last seven home games against Chicago when favored

• Bryan Reynolds has homered in three consecutive Pirates home games when favored against NL Central opponents

• Andrew McCutchen has recorded a double in three straight home games against winning teams

• Ke’Bryan Hayes has registered at least one single in ten consecutive games against winning opponents

Cubs Players to Watch:

• Kyle Tucker has recorded at least one RBI in all five previous appearances against Pittsburgh

• Ian Happ has hit a double in five straight games as a road underdog against the Pirates

• Dansby Swanson has scored at least one run in seven consecutive games at PNC Park

• Seiya Suzuki has homered in four of Chicago’s last five road games against losing teams

Final Prediction and Betting Recommendation

While both starting pitchers enter with impressive statistics, this matchup presents interesting contrasts. Skenes has demonstrated the ability to work deeper into games with dominant stuff, while Rea has been effective but limited in his workload. The Cubs’ superior offensive production gives them a significant advantage if they can force Pittsburgh to their bullpen early.

However, Pittsburgh’s home-field advantage and Skenes’ dominance should prove decisive factors. The Pirates’ recent success in day games at PNC Park against Chicago also supports backing the home team.

Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates 5, Chicago Cubs 3

Recommended Bet: OVER 7.5 Total Runs (-110)

While both pitchers have performed well, the Cubs’ high-scoring tendencies and the historical pattern of their games going OVER as underdogs suggest that runs will materialize, particularly in the later innings once the bullpens become involved. The Pirates’ offensive pieces like Reynolds and McCutchen have favorable matchup histories that should contribute to a combined score exceeding the total.

Betting Insights

Are the Cubs really struggling despite leading the NL Central?

Despite their division-leading 18-13 record, Chicago has lost three of their last four games, indicating some recent regression that could continue against Skenes.

Why back the OVER despite two pitchers with sub-2.50 ERAs?

Colin Rea’s limited ability to work deep into games will expose a vulnerable Cubs bullpen, while Chicago’s potent offense (.263 team average) should eventually break through against Pittsburgh’s relievers.

Can Bryan Reynolds continue his success against Chicago?

Reynolds has recorded at least one hit in 11 straight games when Pittsburgh is favored against the Cubs, making him a prime candidate for hitting props.

Is Paul Skenes the real deal?

With a 0.80 WHIP across 37.2 innings, Skenes has established himself as one of the most dominant young pitchers in baseball, consistently limiting hard contact and working efficiently deep into games.

Should bettors consider first-inning props?

With both teams demonstrating strong “Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs” trends (11 of 13 for Pittsburgh, 6 straight for Chicago), the first-inning under presents significant value.