Cardinals vs Reds Wednesday Doubleheader: Expert Betting Analysis and Predictions

Recent Form Analysis: Cardinals Seeking to Find Consistency

The St. Louis Cardinals have been searching for consistency throughout the early portion of the 2025 MLB season. After opening their campaign with an impressive sweep against the Minnesota Twins, the Cardinals hit a rough patch, dropping consecutive series to the Los Angeles Angels and suffering a sweep at the hands of the Boston Red Sox.

The pattern continued with a series loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates before the Cards showed signs of life by securing victories against both Philadelphia and Houston. However, momentum stalled again with a sweep by the Mets followed by another series loss to the Braves. The Cardinals appeared to be turning things around with two straight wins over the Brewers but failed to complete the sweep, falling 7-1 in the Sunday finale.

Most recently, the Cardinals dropped Monday’s opener against Cincinnati 3-1, managing just five hits compared to the Reds’ eight. Tuesday’s scheduled matchup was postponed due to rain, setting up Wednesday’s crucial doubleheader at Great American Ball Park.

On the mound for game one will be veteran Miles Mikolas, who has struggled to a 0-2 record with a concerning 5.70 ERA across 23.2 innings this season. His career numbers don’t offer much more comfort, sitting at 64-66 with a 4.19 ERA across 215 appearances. For the nightcap, St. Louis will deploy Steven Matz, who has been considerably more effective with a perfect 2-0 record and sparkling 1.80 ERA in eight appearances (one start).

Cincinnati’s Home Momentum: Reds Finding Their Stride

The Cincinnati Reds have weathered an up-and-down start to their campaign but appear to be finding their groove, particularly at Great American Ball Park. Cincinnati stumbled out of the gate with three consecutive series losses to San Francisco, Texas, and Milwaukee before rebounding with a series win in their Giants rematch and a sweep of the Pirates.

After dropping a series to Seattle, the Reds bounced back by taking a series from Baltimore before losing two of three against Miami. Cincinnati enters this doubleheader with significant momentum, having swept the Rockies in their weekend set, including an impressive 8-1 blowout in Sunday’s finale.

Monday’s 3-1 victory over the Cardinals further bolstered the Reds’ confidence, with pitcher Nick Martinez delivering 6.0 solid innings of one-run baseball and Jose Trevino providing the offensive spark with a solo home run.

For Wednesday’s opener, Cincinnati will send Brady Singer to the mound, who has been nothing short of spectacular to begin the season. Singer boasts a perfect 4-0 record with a respectable 3.62 ERA across five starts spanning 27.1 innings. Andrew Abbott is expected to get the nod for game two if the original rotation plans hold.

Critical Betting Trends: Numbers Reveal Clear Patterns

Examining recent betting trends provides valuable insight into how these teams have performed in similar situations:

Cardinals Road Struggles:

• St. Louis has lost eight of their last nine road contests, a concerning trend for Cardinals backers.

• The Cardinals have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight divisional matchups against NL Central opponents.

• St. Louis has trailed after five innings in four of their past five games against National League teams with winning records.

Reds Home Dominance:

• Cincinnati has won seven of their last eight home games against NL Central division rivals.

• The Reds have covered the run line in eight of their last nine home games against division opponents.

• Cincinnati has jumped to early leads, winning after three innings in seven of their last nine home games against National League teams with losing records.

Doubleheader Dynamics:

• The Reds have historically struggled in the first game of doubleheaders, losing eight of their last nine such contests.

• St. Louis has covered the run line in each of their last three road games when playing the front end of a doubleheader.

• Cincinnati has failed to cover the run line in five of their last six home games on the first leg of a doubleheader.

Total Runs Analysis: The Under Trend Is Clear

When examining the total runs market, several compelling patterns emerge:

• Eight of the last nine Cardinals-Reds matchups at Great American Ball Park have finished UNDER the total runs line.

• Four of the Cardinals’ last five games against NL Central opponents have stayed UNDER the total.

• Early scoring has been rare in these matchups, with the ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ hitting in each of Cincinnati’s last five day games against NL Central opponents.

• Even more impressively, the first inning has stayed scoreless in 10 of the Cardinals’ last 11 Wednesday games against division rivals.

These trends strongly suggest that starting pitching could dominate the early innings of both contests, making the under an attractive proposition for first-inning and potentially full-game totals.

Game-by-Game Predictions: A Likely Split

Game One: Reds Edge Cardinals Behind Singer

Brady Singer’s early-season form (4-0, 3.62 ERA) gives Cincinnati a significant advantage in the opener. Despite some recent struggles against Seattle (3 earned runs in 4.1 innings), Singer has been largely effective, going 2-0 with a respectable 4.70 ERA over his last three starts. The Cardinals’ road woes and Mikolas’ troubling 5.70 ERA create a favorable matchup for Cincinnati’s hitters.

Prediction: Reds win game one and cover the spread.

Game Two: Cardinals Bounce Back With Matz

Steven Matz provides the Cardinals with a significant pitching advantage in the nightcap. His stellar 1.80 ERA and perfect 2-0 record reflect his effectiveness, particularly over his last three outings where he’s allowed just one earned run across 8.1 innings. St. Louis should capitalize on what will likely be a fatigued Reds bullpen in the second contest.

Prediction: Cardinals take game two, covering the spread with strong pitching from Matz.

For both games, the UNDER looks particularly promising given the strong trends pointing toward lower-scoring affairs at Great American Ball Park between these divisional rivals.

Expert Insights: Answering Key Questions

Will Great American Ball Park’s reputation as a hitter-friendly venue impact the under trend in this doubleheader?

While Great American Ball Park typically favors hitters, the under trend between these teams is too strong to ignore. The pitching matchups, particularly in game two with Matz, should help keep scoring contained. Early-season conditions with cooler temperatures also tend to suppress offense compared to summer months.

How should bettors approach the Cardinals’ road struggles versus their doubleheader experience?

St. Louis has performed poorly on the road but has shown resilience in doubleheader situations. This creates value in game two where Matz provides a pitching edge and the Cardinals have historically rebounded well. Consider a same-game parlay with Cardinals ML and the under in game two.

Is there value in alternative markets for these games?

First inning under 0.5 runs appears to be an exceptional value play, particularly in game two. With both teams showing strong trends toward scoreless first innings in divisional matchups, this market offers significant potential return with statistical backing.

How might the postponed Tuesday game affect bullpen usage in Wednesday’s doubleheader?

The extra day of rest benefits both bullpens, but particularly helps Cincinnati in game one. Expect both managers to manage workloads carefully, potentially leading to more starter innings if the games remain close. This tactical approach further supports the under play for both contests.

What’s the best parlay opportunity across these two games?

Combining the Reds ML in game one with the Cardinals ML in game two and the under total runs for both contests creates a value-packed parlay with strong statistical support across all legs.