Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction: Value on the Underdog Brewers at Busch Stadium
Brewers Looking to Bounce Back After Late-Game Collapse
The Milwaukee Brewers enter Friday’s matchup at Busch Stadium looking to rebound after a disappointing performance in their previous outing. Despite building an early 5-0 lead through the first four innings on Thursday, Milwaukee’s offense went completely silent in the latter stages of the game, ultimately resulting in a frustrating defeat that saw their bullpen falter down the stretch.
Milwaukee’s offensive production continues to be their strongest asset in 2025, as they’re currently averaging 5.08 runs per contest – good for 5th best in MLB. This offensive firepower has been distributed throughout their lineup, with rookie Jackson Churio emerging as a key contributor with 5 home runs and 20 RBIs thus far in the season.
Taking the mound for the Brewers will be right-hander Chad Patrick, who brings a solid 1-1 record and impressive 2.11 ERA into this matchup. Patrick is coming off a quality start against Oakland where he went six strong innings, allowing just two runs on seven hits. His early-season performance has been one of the few bright spots in Milwaukee’s pitching staff, which ranks just 19th in baseball with 4.52 runs allowed per game.
Cardinals’ Struggles Continue Despite Solid Starting Pitching
St. Louis enters this NL Central showdown fresh off another disappointing series loss, this time at the hands of the Atlanta Braves. Wednesday’s game perfectly encapsulated the Cardinals’ 2025 season thus far – wasting a brilliant starting pitching performance due to anemic offense and bullpen implosion. Miles Mikolas delivered six shutout innings against a potent Braves lineup, only to watch JoJo Romero surrender two runs in just 0.1 innings of relief work.
The Cardinals‘ offense (ranked 7th in MLB at 4.8 runs per game) has shown flashes of brilliance but lacks consistency. Nolan Arenado provided the lone bright spot in Wednesday’s defeat with a solo home run, while Lars Nootbaar continues to be a steady producer with 4 home runs and 14 RBIs this season.
Left-hander Matthew Liberatore takes the hill for St. Louis, carrying a 1-2 record and respectable 3.60 ERA. His most recent outing against the Mets was encouraging, as he pitched into the seventh inning while allowing just two runs on six hits. However, even when Liberatore delivers quality starts, the Cardinals’ 23rd-ranked pitching staff (4.7 runs allowed per game) often struggles to close out games due to bullpen ineffectiveness.
Compelling Betting Trends Favor the Visiting Brewers
A deeper analysis of recent betting patterns reveals several compelling trends that strongly favor Milwaukee in this matchup:
- The Brewers have won nine consecutive games as road underdogs against NL Central opponents following a loss
- Milwaukee has covered the run line in nine straight games as road underdogs against divisional foes after a defeat
- St. Louis has dropped six straight games when favored following a road loss
- The Cardinals have failed to cover the run line in six consecutive games as favorites after a road defeat
These trends suggest Milwaukee has consistently shown resilience after losses when visiting division rivals, while St. Louis struggles to meet expectations as favorites after road defeats.
Total Runs Analysis: Early Innings Could Be Quiet
For bettors considering the total runs market, several noteworthy patterns emerge:
- Seven of St. Louis’ last eight home games against NL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total
- Three of Milwaukee’s last four road games within the division have finished UNDER the total
- First inning scoring has been virtually non-existent in these situations, with the “Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs” hitting in each of the Cardinals’ last nine home games as favorites against NL Central teams
- This same first-inning under trend has hit in each of the Brewers’ last six night games
With two potentially effective starting pitchers squaring off, the early innings could be particularly low-scoring before bullpens become a factor.
Why Milwaukee Is the Smart Play at Busch Stadium
When analyzing this matchup comprehensively, several factors point toward Milwaukee as the value side:
- Chad Patrick’s stellar early-season performance (2.11 ERA) gives the Brewers a pitching advantage that could neutralize the Cardinals’ home-field edge
- St. Louis continues to struggle with bullpen reliability, as evidenced by their 23rd-ranked pitching staff
- Milwaukee’s top-5 offense provides multiple ways to manufacture runs even against quality pitching
- The Brewers’ exceptional 9-0 record as road underdogs against division opponents following losses cannot be ignored
- The Cardinals’ concerning 0-6 record as favorites after road losses demonstrates a pattern of letdown performances
While Matthew Liberatore has shown promise for St. Louis, the Cardinals’ inability to close out games suggests they’re vulnerable even when getting quality starts. Patrick’s ability to limit damage (just two runs allowed in his last outing) should keep Milwaukee in position to capitalize late against the shaky Cardinals bullpen.
Key Insights for Brewers-Cardinals Showdown
Why has Chad Patrick been so effective for Milwaukee despite limited MLB experience?
Patrick has excelled by limiting hard contact and demonstrating exceptional command, walking just 1.8 batters per nine innings. His ability to work efficiently allows him to pitch deeper into games, reducing Milwaukee’s reliance on middle relievers – their most vulnerable area.
What’s behind the Cardinals’ bullpen struggles in 2025?
St. Louis has battled inconsistency in high-leverage situations, with relievers posting a collective 4.86 ERA in the seventh inning or later. JoJo Romero’s recent struggles (2 ER in 0.1 IP against Atlanta) highlight a concerning pattern where the Cardinals fail to preserve leads late in games.
Should bettors be concerned about Milwaukee’s offense after their late-game silence on Thursday?
While the Brewers did go scoreless in the latter stages of Thursday’s game, their fifth-ranked offense remains one of baseball’s most productive units. Jackson Churio’s emergence alongside veteran production throughout the lineup suggests Thursday’s drought was an anomaly rather than a trend.
How significant is the Brewers’ 9-0 record as road underdogs against NL Central teams after a loss?
This is among the most compelling trends in this matchup. It demonstrates Milwaukee’s exceptional resilience within the division and suggests they respond particularly well to adversity when facing familiar opponents on the road.
Why might the first inning go scoreless in this matchup?
Both Patrick (2.11 ERA) and Liberatore (3.60 ERA) have been effective early in games this season. Additionally, the “Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs” has hit in nine straight Cardinals home games against division opponents and six consecutive Brewers night games – suggesting both teams typically start cautiously against familiar foes.
The Brewers’ combination of timely hitting, Chad Patrick’s strong pitching, and exceptional trends as road underdogs make them the compelling choice to not only cover the run line but win outright against a Cardinals team that continues to struggle with bullpen consistency and capitalizing on quality starts from their rotation.
