Nationals vs Pirates Prediction: Pittsburgh Seeks Series Win at PNC Park

Nationals vs Pirates Series Finale Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates (7-12) look to secure a series win against the Washington Nationals (7-11) in Thursday’s finale at PNC Park. After claiming victories in games one and three, Pittsburgh has an opportunity to take three of four from the struggling Nationals, who have dropped four of their last five contests overall. The Pirates’ pitching staff has been their saving grace this season, while Washington continues to search for consistency at the plate after being limited to just three hits in Wednesday’s 6-1 defeat.

The contrast between these two teams becomes particularly stark when examining their projected starting pitchers. Andrew Heaney brings a respectable 3.00 ERA to the mound for Pittsburgh, while Washington counters with Trevor Williams, who has struggled mightily with a 7.36 ERA across his first appearances in 2025. Let’s dive deeper into this National League matchup and formulate our prediction.

Washington Nationals Season Analysis

The Nationals’ 2025 campaign has been characterized by inconsistency, as evidenced by their 7-11 record. After an encouraging series win against the Dodgers where they took two of three games, Washington has faltered, losing four of their last five contests including two of three in this current series against Pittsburgh.

Washington’s pitching staff has been problematic, posting a collective 5.25 ERA with a troubling 1.54 WHIP and allowing opponents to hit a robust .279 against them. In Wednesday’s 6-1 loss, the Nationals’ bullpen faltered badly as reliever Lopez surrendered four earned runs in just 0.2 innings of work, turning a competitive game into a comfortable Pittsburgh victory.

Offensively, Washington has managed to score 77 runs this season, but their .229 team batting average and .306 on-base percentage suggest deeper issues at the plate. Rookie sensation James Wood has been a bright spot with six home runs and 13 RBIs, while Nathaniel Lowe has driven in a team-leading 16 runs despite hitting just three homers.

Trevor Williams takes the ball for Washington on Thursday sporting a concerning 1-1 record with a 7.36 ERA and 1.77 WHIP across 14.2 innings. While Williams has shown an ability to generate strikeouts, recording five or more Ks in three of his last four appearances against National League opponents, his overall effectiveness remains questionable given his elevated ratios.

Pittsburgh Pirates Performance Breakdown

Despite their 7-12 record, the Pirates have shown flashes of competitiveness, particularly on the mound. Pittsburgh’s pitching staff has compiled a respectable 4.02 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP and a .229 opponent batting average—numbers that stand in stark contrast to their offensive output.

The Pirates’ bats have been ice cold to begin the 2025 campaign, posting a MLB-worst .198 team batting average while scoring just 66 runs. However, they’ve shown signs of life in this series, including a 10-run outburst in the opener and Wednesday’s 6-1 victory where Oneil Cruz delivered a momentum-shifting performance, going 2-for-4 with a home run and four RBIs.

Pittsburgh’s biggest advantage in Thursday’s matchup comes in the form of left-hander Andrew Heaney, who brings a 0-1 record but impressive 3.00 ERA and outstanding 0.89 WHIP across 18.0 innings this season. Heaney has allowed just one earned run in two of his first three starts and has demonstrated particularly strong command at home against teams with losing records, recording five or more strikeouts in each of his last four such outings.

Key Statistical Trends

Several compelling trends point toward a Pirates victory on Thursday:

• The Nationals have lost six consecutive Thursday games against NL Central opponents, suggesting a scheduling disadvantage.

• Pittsburgh has won six of their last seven home games against NL East teams with losing records.

• The Pirates have covered the run line in all six of their most recent Thursday home games facing NL East opponents.

• Washington has failed to cover the run line in five of their last six games following a road loss.

• The Nationals have trailed after five innings in five of their last six road games against National League opponents with losing records.

From a total runs perspective, bettors should note that the Pirates have seen four of their last five games go UNDER the total runs line, while the Nationals’ last four day games against National League opponents have finished OVER the total. First-inning scoring has been common in this matchup historically, with the “Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs” market hitting in four of the Nationals’ last five games at PNC Park.

Player Prop Opportunities

Several intriguing player prop opportunities exist for this matchup:

Pirates Players to Watch:

• Andrew Heaney has been a strikeout machine at home, recording 5+ Ks in four straight home appearances against sub-.500 teams.

• Bryan Reynolds has been remarkably consistent in day games, recording at least one hit in each of his last 15 Thursday day appearances at PNC Park.

• Veteran Andrew McCutchen has dominated the Nationals historically, recording at least one RBI in 10 of his last 11 home appearances against Washington when playing the day after another game.

Nationals Players to Monitor:

• Shortstop CJ Abrams has been a consistent producer against Pittsburgh, recording at least one RBI in five of his last six appearances against the Pirates.

• Abrams has also shown power as an underdog, hitting home runs in three of his last five appearances when Washington is the betting underdog.

• Jacob Young has displayed remarkable consistency, recording a hit in each of his last seven appearances against opponents with losing records.

Expert Prediction for Nationals vs Pirates

While both teams have struggled this season, the pitching matchup heavily favors Pittsburgh. Andrew Heaney has been efficient and effective across his first three starts, maintaining a solid ERA and an even more impressive WHIP. In contrast, Trevor Williams has been hit hard, allowing 12 earned runs in just 14.2 innings pitched this season.

The Pirates’ offense remains concerning, but they’ve shown signs of life in this series, particularly with Oneil Cruz finding his power stroke. Washington’s recent offensive struggles—scoring three or fewer runs in three consecutive games—combined with Pittsburgh’s superior pitching staff gives the Pirates a significant edge.

The historical trends also favor Pittsburgh, particularly at PNC Park against NL East opponents with losing records. The Pirates’ ability to jump ahead early (leading after three innings in most home games) should prove decisive against a Nationals team that’s struggled to avoid early deficits.

Final Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates to win and cover the run line, with the total going UNDER as Heaney delivers a quality start.

Insights About This Matchup

Why has Andrew Heaney been effective despite his 0-1 record?

Heaney’s peripheral statistics tell the real story. With a 0.89 WHIP, he’s allowing very few baserunners, which has translated to consistent, quality outings. His record is more a reflection of Pittsburgh’s anemic offense than his own performance on the mound.

How concerning is Trevor Williams’ 7.36 ERA for Washington?

Very concerning. Williams hasn’t shown the ability to limit damage when runners reach base (1.77 WHIP), and Pittsburgh hitters should have ample opportunities to drive in runs, especially with their recent offensive improvements at home.

What’s behind Pittsburgh’s offensive struggles this season?

The Pirates’ MLB-worst .198 team batting average suggests both approach and execution issues at the plate. However, the team has shown improved plate discipline at PNC Park, and facing Williams’ struggling arm could provide the perfect opportunity for a breakthrough performance.

Does Washington have a path to victory in this game?

Yes, but it would require Williams to significantly outperform his season numbers and the Nationals to provide early run support. If they can force Heaney to work with runners on base—something few teams have accomplished—they could potentially steal the series finale.

Is the first-inning scoring trend worth betting on?

Given that the “Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs” market has hit in four of the Nationals’ last five games at PNC Park and in seven of the Pirates’ last eight home games against NL East opponents, this prop bet offers significant value based on historical patterns.