Brewers vs. Diamondbacks Prediction: Complete MLB Betting Analysis for April 12

The Milwaukee Brewers and Arizona Diamondbacks face off at Chase Field on Saturday, April 12, in what promises to be an intriguing National League contest. Both teams have shown offensive prowess this season but present contrasting pitching scenarios that create interesting betting opportunities. Our comprehensive analysis dives into recent performance metrics, team trends, and the critical pitching matchup to formulate our Brewers vs. Diamondbacks prediction.

Brewers’ Recent Performance Analysis

Milwaukee enters this matchup after an impressive offensive display in Friday’s victory, where they put up seven runs against the Diamondbacks. The Brewers’ offense has been consistently productive in 2025, ranking 5th in MLB with 5.28 runs per game. This offensive output has been crucial in compensating for their pitching staff, which currently ranks 29th in the league by allowing 5.69 runs per game.

Chad Patrick (1-0, 2.45 ERA) gets the starting nod for Milwaukee. The right-hander is coming off an outstanding performance against Cincinnati where he limited the Reds to just two hits and one run across 5.1 innings. Patrick’s early-season effectiveness provides a significant boost to a Milwaukee pitching staff that has otherwise struggled.

Jackson Churio has emerged as Milwaukee’s offensive catalyst, having already belted four home runs while driving in 16 RBIs this season. In Friday’s victory, Brice Turang contributed significantly with three hits and two RBIs, while Christian Yelich managed to drive in two runs despite not recording a hit. This demonstrates Milwaukee’s ability to manufacture runs in multiple ways.

Diamondbacks’ Recent Form and Outlook

Arizona’s offense ranks 4th in MLB, averaging 5.54 runs per game, but they struggled uncharacteristically in Friday’s contest, managing just four hits against Jose Quintana and the Brewers’ bullpen. This performance stands in stark contrast to their 9-0 victory over Baltimore two games prior, highlighting the inconsistency that has occasionally plagued them.

The Diamondbacks will send veteran Corbin Burnes (0-1, 5.79 ERA) to the mound. Burnes has experienced early-season struggles, as evidenced by his last outing against Washington where he surrendered seven hits and four runs over five innings. His elevated ERA raises concerns, particularly against Milwaukee’s potent offense.

A significant factor potentially impacting Arizona’s offensive production is the uncertain status of Ketel Marte, who’s currently dealing with a leg injury. Marte’s absence would create a substantial void in the Diamondbacks’ lineup, though they’ve demonstrated batting proficiency against right-handed pitchers, hitting a collective .275 against them this season.

Critical Betting Trends for Milwaukee

Several betting patterns for the Brewers warrant consideration:

• Milwaukee has covered the run line in 6 of their last 7 road games against Arizona

• The Brewers have struggled following victories, failing to cover the run line in 7 of their last 9 games after a win

• Milwaukee’s games have consistently produced high scoring totals, with the OVER hitting in 10 of their last 11 contests against teams with winning records

• Road teams have dominated the head-to-head series, covering the run line in 12 of the last 13 matchups between these franchises

These trends suggest Milwaukee performs well at Chase Field but often experiences letdown games following victories—a pattern bettors should consider when evaluating this matchup.

Key Diamondbacks Betting Patterns

Arizona also presents several noteworthy betting trends:

• The Diamondbacks have won 13 of their last 14 games against NL Central opponents following a loss

• Underdogs have prevailed in 5 of Arizona’s last 6 games at Chase Field

• Arizona has covered the run line in each of their last 4 home games following a home defeat

• The Diamondbacks have demonstrated early-game strength against Milwaukee, leading after 3 innings in 3 of their last 4 head-to-head matchups

• Arizona has struggled as favorites against National League opponents, losing 4 of their last 5 games in that role

These patterns reveal Arizona’s resilience after losses, particularly against NL Central teams, while also highlighting their recent difficulties when installed as betting favorites.

Analyzing the Pitching Matchup

The starting pitching comparison between Chad Patrick and Corbin Burnes presents an interesting contrast. Patrick has been efficient in limited action, holding opponents to minimal damage while working into the sixth inning in his previous start. His 2.45 ERA represents a bright spot for a Brewers pitching staff that has otherwise struggled.

Conversely, Burnes has not demonstrated the form that has previously established him as a top-tier starter. His 5.79 ERA and recent difficulties against Washington raise legitimate concerns about his ability to contain Milwaukee’s productive offense. This pitching matchup appears to favor the Brewers, creating potential value on the visiting side.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Considering all factors—recent team performance, pitching matchup, and betting trends—our analysis points toward a high-scoring affair at Chase Field. The Brewers’ powerful offense should capitalize against a struggling Burnes, while Arizona’s proficiency against right-handed pitching suggests they’ll generate offense against Patrick despite his early-season success.

The OVER (likely set around 8.5-9 runs) presents the strongest betting opportunity in this matchup given both teams’ offensive capabilities and the Brewers’ tendency toward high-scoring games against winning opponents (10-1 to the OVER in their last 11). Additionally, the value on Milwaukee as potential road underdogs warrants consideration given the pitching advantage and their strong run-line performance at Chase Field.

Final Prediction: OVER the total runs; consider Milwaukee on the run line if available at plus money.

Betting Insights

Why are the Brewers hitting above their weight class?

Milwaukee’s offense has exceeded expectations due to their balanced attack. Rather than relying solely on power, they’ve demonstrated an ability to manufacture runs through timely hitting and aggressive baserunning. Jackson Churio’s emergence has provided unexpected production, while veterans like Yelich continue to contribute even without recording hits.

Can Burnes recapture his dominant form against his former team?

While narrative angles often suggest pitchers perform well against former teams, Burnes’ mechanical issues appear more fundamental. His elevated ERA stems from command problems and reduced velocity. Until he demonstrates improvement in these areas, he remains vulnerable against any lineup, especially one as productive as Milwaukee’s.

What impact does Arizona’s home field have on this matchup?

Despite playing at Chase Field, Arizona has struggled at home recently, failing to cover the run line in 8 of their last 9 home games against NL Central teams with winning records. The ballpark’s hitter-friendly dimensions should contribute to the high-scoring environment we anticipate.

How should bettors approach the early innings?

The Diamondbacks have won the first inning in 3 of their last 4 games against Milwaukee and have typically led after 3 innings. For those interested in in-game wagering, considering Arizona for early-inning bets might provide value, even if the overall game outcome favors Milwaukee or the OVER.

What’s the most overlooked factor in this matchup?

The Brewers’ bullpen vulnerability receives insufficient attention. Despite Friday’s success, Milwaukee’s relief corps has struggled throughout 2025. Even if Patrick delivers another quality start, the late innings could prove problematic for the Brewers, potentially creating live betting opportunities if they carry a lead into the 7th inning.